I don’t know – I look at history and I see series of AI bubbles directly after a breakthrough that led to a great advancement in the science and nothing else. A

I don’t know – I look at history and I see series of AI bubbles directly after a breakthrough that led to a great advancement in the science and nothing else. And then AI crashes and winters. I think it’s completely possible to look around and think that this is as good as ChatGPT is going to get, or maybe it’ll get to 5.5 in a few years and peter out there (instead of here). And then we’ll spend the next decade shrinking and cramming and maybe we’ll even get 5.5 intelligence on our watches, but it’s never getting smarter than that. Then in 2040 we’ll have another breakthrough, another hype cycle, and things will get smarter again, for another few years. Looking at history, that’s a future I can believe in. —- PS. Generally I think these large transformer models are amazing, show great utility, and I use them every day.