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Building new nuclear night have been a worthwhile proposition 10-15 years ago, but if you build one now, the exponential growth of grid storage will render it u
by h0l0cube 2y ago
Building new nuclear night have been a worthwhile proposition 10-15 years ago, but if you build one now, the exponential growth of grid storage will render it useless by all measures once it is finally in operation. Definitely decommissioning existing nuclear makes no sense for the next decade or two.
- bgnn 2y agoIs there data about this exponential growth of grid storage? Here in the Netherlands grid is over-capacity and cannot be expandee easily because it should have been planned 10-15 years ago. Grid storage is in a worse state than the grid itself. A related report: https://www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/energy-resources-industrials/articles/energy-storage-development-of-the-market.html https://www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/energy-resources-indus...
- h0l0cube 2y agoGrid storage additions 2017-2022: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-grid-scale-battery-storage-additions-2017-2022 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-grid-s... It’s exponential growth, very similar to the growth curve of solar and wind. What’s different is the curve is even more explosive than either, to the point that it will surpass daily renewable consumption in little over a decade.
- zozbot234 2y agoThe only grid storage that matters at scale is pumped hydro. Everything else is literally a drop in the bucket. And you can't practically scale pumped hydro beyond what's there now.
- energy123 2y agoThere's more pumped hydro only because pumped hydro used to be the only option. But it's no longer the only option, so that state of affairs will change soon.
- h0l0cube 2y agoExponential growth is exponential growth. And pumped hydro isn’t what’s driving that growth. If the curve continues in the same fashion as renewables consumption has and still is today, we’ll have one day’s worth global capacity by the middle 2030s
- zozbot234 2y agoExponential growth is exponential growth until it isn't. Relying on future improvements in storage technology to save the day is speculative.
- h0l0cube 2y agoThat’s the same incredulity that was and still is applied to solar’s stratospheric growth, yet the curve has remained true for decades now. There’s a Cambrian explosion of storage technologies ATM^ and it’s driven by profit incentive. Many places are reaching overcapacity of renewables, making storage a dire necessity that can be capitalized upon. ^ And crucially, grid storage doesn’t care so much for mobility or gravimetric density, so it can look very different to energy storage in an EV for example
- energy123 2y agoIt's informed speculation. As industry grows, economies of scale delivers a stable learning curve. We saw it in solar panels and lightbulbs, and we're seeing it in batteries of various chemistries.
- ZeroGravitas 2y agoThere's now greater capacity† in grid batteries than pumped hydro, and the former is increasing rapidly. † note "capacity" has a sometimes misinterpreted meaning here. It means instantaneous generation and/or the opposite how many watts can be taken off the grid for later. Pumped Hydro can discharge for longer, but in a world of cheap intermittent generation, this isn't particularly helpful.