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I've been following these efforts closely. For these projects, crewed endurance space efforts, I strongly believe the most difficult component is the human. It'

I've been following these efforts closely. For these projects, crewed endurance space efforts, I strongly believe the most difficult component is the human. It's really difficult to be isolated in a high stress environment. And we don't adequately simulate or study what that might truly be like. I know that this was about nutrition but I just don't think nutrition is going to be the hard part of these missions. I say this with experience. Living and working doing science in the Arctic and on ships is grueling. It's grueling, and not anywhere near as difficult or unpredictable as being in space. The things that happen in that pressure cooker are really hard to explain to people who haven't lived it. It's not ethical or easy to do the kinds of simulations that would actually be useful. How do you simulate "your colleague is gravely wounded and on life support. now you have to work for 90 hours straight to fix whatever mamed them". Oh, also, you have 9 months of mission left with one less crew. It was mediocre at best but "for all man kind" highlights just how weird things might get in these places. The only analogous efforts I can imagine are the adventures of sea-fairing people of centuries past. Maybe we should invent time travel and do some sociological studies.

yayr 2y ago
there is this review of "for all man kind" https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7772588/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7772588/ why should it be any different on mars than on earth? > This show has a cool premise, that being what if the space race never ended. It's a sort-of alternate reality and it does a good job of weaving in actual historical events with where the timeline diverged. The main problem is that I feel like the show is being pulled in two directions. In one direction, there is the tension of the space race, engineers scrambling to be the first on the moon/mars and dealing with all manner of technical issues in a realistic-ish way. That part of the show I enjoy. Then, for some reason, the show also throws in a bunch of trite interpersonal drama and stupidity. Like inter-marital affairs, people leaking NASA secrets to the soviets, and a CLEARLY unstable drug-addicted astronaut being given solo control of a super important mission. It's like the showrunners thought the show couldn't stand on it's own without dumb drama, as if there couldn't organically be issues and drama in the context of Frigging SPACE. The first season does this better, but by the 2nd/3rd seasons most of the issues come not from unforeseen difficulties of life on the moon/mars but idiots. It really makes me wonder if they just aren't sure who their audience are. The people who like the technical stuff are not going to like the artificial drama, and vise-versa. Pick a lane, show, and stick with it.
- basementcat 2y ago
  I would argue that sometimes "dumb drama" is a good mirror of humanity. Inter-marital affairs really do happen (including in the highest levels of public policy as well as the astronaut corps), people do disclose "secrets" and pilots (including astronauts) are known to deceive medical professionals to avoid being "grounded". https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nowak https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nowak https://www.space.com/spacex-employee-lawsuit-sex-discrimination-retaliation https://www.space.com/spacex-employee-lawsuit-sex-discrimina... https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2019/04/30/after-video-of-spacex-explosion-leaked-nasa-workers-told-they-can-be-fired-for-sharing-images/ https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2019/04/30/after-video-of-sp... https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/27/faa-pilots-health-conditions-va-benefits/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/27/faa-pilot...
  - exe34 2y ago
    Where there are humans, there will be dumb drama. It's practically a law of human nature.
  - nxobject 2y ago
    My other favorite example of dumb drama at the highest levels: ex-director of the CIA, David Petraeus, was forced to resign after being caught by the FIB in an extramarital affair with his biographer. [1] You'd certainly think that the ex-military head of a spycraft organization would know to be a little more disciplined... and less vulnerable to blackmail. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petraeus_scandal https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petraeus_scandal
    - jowdones 2y ago
      My expectation is the exact opposite, CIA chief would be a libidinous drug addict, but my view has been shaped by this character: https://americandad.fandom.com/wiki/Avery_Bullock https://americandad.fandom.com/wiki/Avery_Bullock
- Filligree 2y ago
  The drama isn’t even done that well. Like you say, it’s stupid; the people are on average just worse than the sort of people who would actually be there. I wanted the technical sci-fi to be worth it, but it wasn’t. There really isn’t much catering to an engineer audience.
BurningFrog 2y ago
> It's really difficult to be isolated in a high stress environment. Mars seems more like a high boredom environment. It's a dead planet where nothing more than the occasional feeble dust storm happen.
- fooqux 2y ago
  > Mars seems more like a high boredom environment. Something tells me that the first few thousand people sent to Mars won't be bored. There will be tons of things to do in the pursuit of making a habitable space. Besides that, you have the constant death factor. I know we all live with risk 24/7. But, unless we're doing something outside our comfort zone, our brains largely ignore it. Living on Mars will not be like that for a settler. There are real risks that some piece of equipment will fail and kill you all. You'll likely be well aware of that because you'll be working on it. (Or worse, that idiot over there holding the spanner the wrong way is working on it.)
  - russfink 2y ago
    Should we pursue such a simulation in an undersea environment instead? Real stress, real risk, real isolation - but could pull someone up if super urgent. Would also simulate the long voyage to get there.
    - OnlyMortal 2y ago
      That might be a good idea if space suits are available. It would be risky, tbf.
    - whyever 2y ago
      Analog astronauts are already doing this.
    - fooqux 2y ago
      >but could pull someone up if super urgent This is the key, IMHO. We've simulated such things as human isolation and closed-loop ecologies before, numerous times. And we did learn some things. But I don't think there is much you can do, and surely not anything ethical, that would correctly simulate being months away from Earth. Just as you said, when you're on-planet, anything that goes wrong can be dealt with. Have a leak you can't fix? Someone just had a medial issue and is unresponsive? You just can't take it any more? Whatever the case, help is just a press of the red button away. I'm not sure if you've played many video games on Hardcore mode, but it's a totally different experience to know your saved game file(s) are in jeopardy if what you're about to do goes south. I would imagine the feeling is somewhat like this, but worse. A lunar base might simulate it. An undersea base (as you suggested) might work too if you put it deep enough. But again, you're entering unethical territory here by making something exceedingly dangerous just for the sake of increasing the risk/stress.
nxobject 2y ago
It's a little bit unfair to say that this mission was just about nutrition – apparently there were simulated stressors, although I wish there were more details about what there. That being said, you're right to say that people weren't being pushed psychologically to the "real" limit that you'd get on long-term isolated missions... I guess that's where The Right Stuff of ye olde Space Age comes in. [1] https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/chapea/about-chapea/ https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/chapea/about-chapea/
somenameforme 2y ago
Colonization will entail a pretty large population of people across all fields of expertise. You will also have all supplies and materials necessary for any sort of contingencies. You're not going to have the electrician trying to improv as a doctor. I think it's highly probable that many people will die, but not in particularly grueling ways, but far more mundane. Around 600 people have gone to space (which I'll define as at least LEO). During this (including training), about 30 people have died. A death ratio of 5% is ridiculously high, and most of the incidents have been far from remarkable. Fire in a capsule, oxygen valve failure, heat shield failure, don't use solid rocket boosters, and so on. It'll be the same stuff with Mars, except the death ratio will likely be substantially higher. It'll again be from just incidents that will look stupid in hindsight. And they will have been, but when you're working to prevent a billion bad outcomes, a few will always manage to wiggle through the cracks. All things considered I think Mars colonization will probably be far easier than the guys who were engaging in civilization building in the past. Settlers in times past were dealing with hostile natives, hostile waters, unknown diseases, unpredictable weather, even mundane things like rats getting into your rations, and had very little ability to measure or adapt to what they were dealing with. For instance Vasco de Gama (Europe to India guy) took 3 weeks to cross the Indian ocean the first time. On his way back, it took 3 months. By the time he returned, about 70% of his crew was dead. Colonizing Mars will be absolutely brutal but we will have quite far fewer unknowns. Of course the issues will will have to deal with will be far harsher than anything anybody else ever had to manage, but they are known - and so that really simplifies the process.
- 9dev 2y ago
  People arguing in favour of mars colonisation always kind of skip the time between now and a future in which we’re able to ship an entire populace to another planet. We will need to send smaller crews first. Not just to do the science and validation necessary, but also because it would be plain unethical to send a large group of people without knowing what effect that kind of travel will have on them. And all of that in spite of knowing how that venture would even be technologically feasible. If you haven’t, I can highly recommend reading A city on mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith.
  - 2y ago
monkeyfun 2y ago
Are there any stories or examples you could provide of what you described with arctic work? That sounds quite interesting!
- polairscience 2y ago
  Buy me a beer in person and you can have as many as you want until you're bored. Post them publicly on the internet for anyone to recall at any moment? Absolutely not, under no circumstances, no. Which is an important and relevant boundary for this discussion. Any space extended space travel is going to be mind numbingly public. Which is not a good thing

yayr 2y ago

there is this review of "for all man kind" https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7772588/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7772588/ why should it be any different on mars than on earth? > This show has a cool premise, that being what if the space race never ended. It's a sort-of alternate reality and it does a good job of weaving in actual historical events with where the timeline diverged. The main problem is that I feel like the show is being pulled in two directions. In one direction, there is the tension of the space race, engineers scrambling to be the first on the moon/mars and dealing with all manner of technical issues in a realistic-ish way. That part of the show I enjoy. Then, for some reason, the show also throws in a bunch of trite interpersonal drama and stupidity. Like inter-marital affairs, people leaking NASA secrets to the soviets, and a CLEARLY unstable drug-addicted astronaut being given solo control of a super important mission. It's like the showrunners thought the show couldn't stand on it's own without dumb drama, as if there couldn't organically be issues and drama in the context of Frigging SPACE. The first season does this better, but by the 2nd/3rd seasons most of the issues come not from unforeseen difficulties of life on the moon/mars but idiots. It really makes me wonder if they just aren't sure who their audience are. The people who like the technical stuff are not going to like the artificial drama, and vise-versa. Pick a lane, show, and stick with it.

basementcat 2y ago
I would argue that sometimes "dumb drama" is a good mirror of humanity. Inter-marital affairs really do happen (including in the highest levels of public policy as well as the astronaut corps), people do disclose "secrets" and pilots (including astronauts) are known to deceive medical professionals to avoid being "grounded". https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nowak https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nowak https://www.space.com/spacex-employee-lawsuit-sex-discrimination-retaliation https://www.space.com/spacex-employee-lawsuit-sex-discrimina... https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2019/04/30/after-video-of-spacex-explosion-leaked-nasa-workers-told-they-can-be-fired-for-sharing-images/ https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2019/04/30/after-video-of-sp... https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/27/faa-pilots-health-conditions-va-benefits/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/27/faa-pilot...
- exe34 2y ago
  Where there are humans, there will be dumb drama. It's practically a law of human nature.
- nxobject 2y ago
  My other favorite example of dumb drama at the highest levels: ex-director of the CIA, David Petraeus, was forced to resign after being caught by the FIB in an extramarital affair with his biographer. [1] You'd certainly think that the ex-military head of a spycraft organization would know to be a little more disciplined... and less vulnerable to blackmail. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petraeus_scandal https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petraeus_scandal
  - jowdones 2y ago
    My expectation is the exact opposite, CIA chief would be a libidinous drug addict, but my view has been shaped by this character: https://americandad.fandom.com/wiki/Avery_Bullock https://americandad.fandom.com/wiki/Avery_Bullock
Filligree 2y ago
The drama isn’t even done that well. Like you say, it’s stupid; the people are on average just worse than the sort of people who would actually be there. I wanted the technical sci-fi to be worth it, but it wasn’t. There really isn’t much catering to an engineer audience.

BurningFrog 2y ago

> It's really difficult to be isolated in a high stress environment. Mars seems more like a high boredom environment. It's a dead planet where nothing more than the occasional feeble dust storm happen.

fooqux 2y ago
> Mars seems more like a high boredom environment. Something tells me that the first few thousand people sent to Mars won't be bored. There will be tons of things to do in the pursuit of making a habitable space. Besides that, you have the constant death factor. I know we all live with risk 24/7. But, unless we're doing something outside our comfort zone, our brains largely ignore it. Living on Mars will not be like that for a settler. There are real risks that some piece of equipment will fail and kill you all. You'll likely be well aware of that because you'll be working on it. (Or worse, that idiot over there holding the spanner the wrong way is working on it.)
- russfink 2y ago
  Should we pursue such a simulation in an undersea environment instead? Real stress, real risk, real isolation - but could pull someone up if super urgent. Would also simulate the long voyage to get there.
  - OnlyMortal 2y ago
    That might be a good idea if space suits are available. It would be risky, tbf.
  - whyever 2y ago
    Analog astronauts are already doing this.
  - fooqux 2y ago
    >but could pull someone up if super urgent This is the key, IMHO. We've simulated such things as human isolation and closed-loop ecologies before, numerous times. And we did learn some things. But I don't think there is much you can do, and surely not anything ethical, that would correctly simulate being months away from Earth. Just as you said, when you're on-planet, anything that goes wrong can be dealt with. Have a leak you can't fix? Someone just had a medial issue and is unresponsive? You just can't take it any more? Whatever the case, help is just a press of the red button away. I'm not sure if you've played many video games on Hardcore mode, but it's a totally different experience to know your saved game file(s) are in jeopardy if what you're about to do goes south. I would imagine the feeling is somewhat like this, but worse. A lunar base might simulate it. An undersea base (as you suggested) might work too if you put it deep enough. But again, you're entering unethical territory here by making something exceedingly dangerous just for the sake of increasing the risk/stress.

nxobject 2y ago

It's a little bit unfair to say that this mission was just about nutrition – apparently there were simulated stressors, although I wish there were more details about what there. That being said, you're right to say that people weren't being pushed psychologically to the "real" limit that you'd get on long-term isolated missions... I guess that's where The Right Stuff of ye olde Space Age comes in. [1] https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/chapea/about-chapea/ https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/chapea/about-chapea/

somenameforme 2y ago

Colonization will entail a pretty large population of people across all fields of expertise. You will also have all supplies and materials necessary for any sort of contingencies. You're not going to have the electrician trying to improv as a doctor. I think it's highly probable that many people will die, but not in particularly grueling ways, but far more mundane. Around 600 people have gone to space (which I'll define as at least LEO). During this (including training), about 30 people have died. A death ratio of 5% is ridiculously high, and most of the incidents have been far from remarkable. Fire in a capsule, oxygen valve failure, heat shield failure, don't use solid rocket boosters, and so on. It'll be the same stuff with Mars, except the death ratio will likely be substantially higher. It'll again be from just incidents that will look stupid in hindsight. And they will have been, but when you're working to prevent a billion bad outcomes, a few will always manage to wiggle through the cracks. All things considered I think Mars colonization will probably be far easier than the guys who were engaging in civilization building in the past. Settlers in times past were dealing with hostile natives, hostile waters, unknown diseases, unpredictable weather, even mundane things like rats getting into your rations, and had very little ability to measure or adapt to what they were dealing with. For instance Vasco de Gama (Europe to India guy) took 3 weeks to cross the Indian ocean the first time. On his way back, it took 3 months. By the time he returned, about 70% of his crew was dead. Colonizing Mars will be absolutely brutal but we will have quite far fewer unknowns. Of course the issues will will have to deal with will be far harsher than anything anybody else ever had to manage, but they are known - and so that really simplifies the process.

9dev 2y ago
People arguing in favour of mars colonisation always kind of skip the time between now and a future in which we’re able to ship an entire populace to another planet. We will need to send smaller crews first. Not just to do the science and validation necessary, but also because it would be plain unethical to send a large group of people without knowing what effect that kind of travel will have on them. And all of that in spite of knowing how that venture would even be technologically feasible. If you haven’t, I can highly recommend reading A city on mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith.
- 2y ago

monkeyfun 2y ago

Are there any stories or examples you could provide of what you described with arctic work? That sounds quite interesting!

polairscience 2y ago
Buy me a beer in person and you can have as many as you want until you're bored. Post them publicly on the internet for anyone to recall at any moment? Absolutely not, under no circumstances, no. Which is an important and relevant boundary for this discussion. Any space extended space travel is going to be mind numbingly public. Which is not a good thing