3 ms·
Part of the problem is the faster and wider communication of these kinds of incidents. I think people can intuitively understand, at lowest, 5%* odds. Anything
by jprete 2y ago
Part of the problem is the faster and wider communication of these kinds of incidents. I think people can intuitively understand, at lowest, 5%* odds. Anything below that is either 5% or impossible unless you're mathing it out.
Hearing about these kinds of tail-case incidents at least once or twice a year is probably enough to bump them up to the 5% category.
*I'm not committed to any specific number here. The relevant threshold is "high enough to consider when making decisions".
- youainti 2y agoAn interesting resource is IDC 203, which describes how the US intelligence community discusses probability. The table in paragraph 2a says something similar to what you are saying: almost no chance / remote := 1%-5% very unlikely / highly improbable := 5%-20% etc...
- eastbound 2y agoIt shouldn’t have happened at all.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]