> Looking at it this way it’s not too hard to see why the R2 is bad. It barely explains any more difference in the individual behavior than the basic guess. Ri

> Looking at it this way it’s not too hard to see why the R2 is bad. It barely explains any more difference in the individual behavior than the basic guess. Right. R² is 1% because the prediction is bad - only marginally better than the basic guess. > R2 is not a great metric for percentages or classification problems like this. Using a different metric won't improve the prediction. Is the Brier score a great metric for problems like this? The Brier score for the model is 0.2475. The Brier score for the "basic guess" is 0.25. The improvement in the Brier score for the model relative to the basic guess is 1%.