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Do people in the US genuinely believe that? Makes me think of that the Germans thought of the Soviets before June of 1941.

ceejayoz 2y ago
> Do people in the US genuinely believe that? Yes, we fairly reasonably believe that Russia's struggle to make progress against a smaller neighbor using NATO hand-me-downs is heavily indicative of how they'd do against all of NATO using B-2s, F-22s and F-35s.
- paganel 2y ago
  Interesting. As a direct neighbor of Ukraine this hybris doesn’t sit all that well to me, but it is good to know, regardless.
  - squidbeak 2y ago
    It isn't hubris. Before the invasion western analysts were misled into believing Russian capabilities had or were near parity with modern western systems - one of the factors in the widespread assumption in western capitals on Feb 24, 2022 that Ukraine would fall in days. But Russian systems have mostly performed poorly in this war. Meanwhile Western systems have proven highly capable in all recent wars.
- lkasr 2y ago
  Vietnam was a failure, Iraq was a failure, Afghanistan was a failure. I concede that NATO would put in more effort against Russia, but how about better not finding out in the first place? Russia would also put in more effort. This is hubris at its finest.
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    > I concede that NATO would put in more effort against Russia, but how about better not finding out in the first place? I mean, that's the point. That Russia's obvious takeaway from Ukraine should be "we'd lose fast and badly against actual NATO". As with Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, a loss in Ukraine is most likely to come from the West going "eh whatever good enough we're out", not superior tech on the Russian side.
  - ifyoubuildit 2y ago
    Yep. Some things we can always rely on in America: death, taxes, and being lied into forever wars repeatedly. And an enthusiastic chorus of cheerleaders for those wars, I might add.
jncfhnb 2y ago
Yes that would be the year that US lend lease began for the soviets
squidbeak 2y ago
It's worth noting, before 1941 the United States hadn't begun its lend-lease program to the Russia military, which was a major factor in its later success. Without it the German assessment would likely have proven correct.

ceejayoz 2y ago

> Do people in the US genuinely believe that? Yes, we fairly reasonably believe that Russia's struggle to make progress against a smaller neighbor using NATO hand-me-downs is heavily indicative of how they'd do against all of NATO using B-2s, F-22s and F-35s.

paganel 2y ago
Interesting. As a direct neighbor of Ukraine this hybris doesn’t sit all that well to me, but it is good to know, regardless.
- squidbeak 2y ago
  It isn't hubris. Before the invasion western analysts were misled into believing Russian capabilities had or were near parity with modern western systems - one of the factors in the widespread assumption in western capitals on Feb 24, 2022 that Ukraine would fall in days. But Russian systems have mostly performed poorly in this war. Meanwhile Western systems have proven highly capable in all recent wars.
lkasr 2y ago
Vietnam was a failure, Iraq was a failure, Afghanistan was a failure. I concede that NATO would put in more effort against Russia, but how about better not finding out in the first place? Russia would also put in more effort. This is hubris at its finest.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  > I concede that NATO would put in more effort against Russia, but how about better not finding out in the first place? I mean, that's the point. That Russia's obvious takeaway from Ukraine should be "we'd lose fast and badly against actual NATO". As with Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, a loss in Ukraine is most likely to come from the West going "eh whatever good enough we're out", not superior tech on the Russian side.
- ifyoubuildit 2y ago
  Yep. Some things we can always rely on in America: death, taxes, and being lied into forever wars repeatedly. And an enthusiastic chorus of cheerleaders for those wars, I might add.

jncfhnb 2y ago

Yes that would be the year that US lend lease began for the soviets

squidbeak 2y ago

It's worth noting, before 1941 the United States hadn't begun its lend-lease program to the Russia military, which was a major factor in its later success. Without it the German assessment would likely have proven correct.