3 ms·

Employment increases by 206K in June; unemployment rate changes little at 4.1%

43 points by impish9208 2y ago

cranberryturkey 2y ago
[flagged]
Rinzler89 2y ago
*in the USA
ripjaygn 2y ago
Unemployment rate at 4.1% vs expected 4.0% Hourly earnings up by 0.3% vs expected 0.3%
wdh505 2y ago
Professional and business services seem to be down. So are temporary help services. I think chatgpt is "cutting the fat" of those jobs. This seems rough. The average weekly wage is 1200$. Seems like what most master degrees can command. Oof. The median is probably much lower.
- jaybrendansmith 2y ago
  So good news is bad news? Oof, the economy added jobs?
mortenjorck 2y ago
Is there an org that tracks tech employment more closely than the BLS? I still don’t know what to make of the gulf between my observed experience and the larger job market. Anecdotally, more people I know have been laid off in the past year than I’ve ever seen before. I’ve been laid off twice in under 18 months, and am currently going on three months without a job. And with the caveat that they are both echo chambers, the consistent sentiment I’ve seen here and on LinkedIn is that this is the worst tech job market since the Great Recession. Is tech really that uniquely sensitive to interest rates while the rest of the economy doesn’t care?
- wdh505 2y ago
  My industry was last analyzed by bls.gov in 2023. It seems that tech was last analyzed in 2018. https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-7/high-tech-industries-an-analysis-of-employment-wages-and-output.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-7/high-tech-industries-a... Perhaps they will analyze the tech employment soon?
  - wdh505 2y ago
    Here is a projection search. Ymmv. https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrixHome?ioType=o https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrixHome?ioType=o
- nonameiguess 2y ago
  BLS itself tracks indicators down to far smaller granularity than "the entire labor force." Here are all monthly releases for employment: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm There isn't anything that drills down to sector-level, but the employment situation by occupation is probably the closest: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t13.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t13.htm It doesn't get as far down as software or computing-related occupations, but these would fall under the broader "professional and related occupations." This seemingly encompasses most white collar work and it has the third-lowest unemployment rate, behind only maintenance and repair operations and management and finance. Obviously, a lot of what you feel is happening will be colored by the particular people you know. It's probably wrong to even think of that as "tech employment." My wife and I both work for software companies. I don't personally know anyone who has been laid off in the past year. But I live in Texas and we both work in defense software. San Francisco adjacent web tech is not the entirety of "tech."
  - AlotOfReading 2y ago
    You're pretty lucky to be unaffected. I'm not in defense, but just off the top of my head Lockheed is doing layoffs in CT due to the loss of FARA. Raytheon is continuing their layoff death spiral and shutting down some stuff in Texas. Boeing is hemorrhaging people and money for obvious reasons. That's just the three largest contractors.
cvwright 2y ago
Lately it seems these are always revised down after the initial release. In a month we may find out that the real numbers are even worse.
- pseudo0 2y ago
  Yup, continuing the trend in this release: > The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 57,000, from +165,000 to +108,000, and the change for May was revised down by 54,000, from +272,000 to +218,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 111,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

43 points by impish9208 2y ago

cranberryturkey 2y ago

[flagged]

Rinzler89 2y ago

*in the USA

ripjaygn 2y ago

Unemployment rate at 4.1% vs expected 4.0% Hourly earnings up by 0.3% vs expected 0.3%

wdh505 2y ago

Professional and business services seem to be down. So are temporary help services. I think chatgpt is "cutting the fat" of those jobs. This seems rough. The average weekly wage is 1200$. Seems like what most master degrees can command. Oof. The median is probably much lower.

jaybrendansmith 2y ago
So good news is bad news? Oof, the economy added jobs?

mortenjorck 2y ago

Is there an org that tracks tech employment more closely than the BLS? I still don’t know what to make of the gulf between my observed experience and the larger job market. Anecdotally, more people I know have been laid off in the past year than I’ve ever seen before. I’ve been laid off twice in under 18 months, and am currently going on three months without a job. And with the caveat that they are both echo chambers, the consistent sentiment I’ve seen here and on LinkedIn is that this is the worst tech job market since the Great Recession. Is tech really that uniquely sensitive to interest rates while the rest of the economy doesn’t care?

wdh505 2y ago
My industry was last analyzed by bls.gov in 2023. It seems that tech was last analyzed in 2018. https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-7/high-tech-industries-an-analysis-of-employment-wages-and-output.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-7/high-tech-industries-a... Perhaps they will analyze the tech employment soon?
- wdh505 2y ago
  Here is a projection search. Ymmv. https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrixHome?ioType=o https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrixHome?ioType=o
nonameiguess 2y ago
BLS itself tracks indicators down to far smaller granularity than "the entire labor force." Here are all monthly releases for employment: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm There isn't anything that drills down to sector-level, but the employment situation by occupation is probably the closest: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t13.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t13.htm It doesn't get as far down as software or computing-related occupations, but these would fall under the broader "professional and related occupations." This seemingly encompasses most white collar work and it has the third-lowest unemployment rate, behind only maintenance and repair operations and management and finance. Obviously, a lot of what you feel is happening will be colored by the particular people you know. It's probably wrong to even think of that as "tech employment." My wife and I both work for software companies. I don't personally know anyone who has been laid off in the past year. But I live in Texas and we both work in defense software. San Francisco adjacent web tech is not the entirety of "tech."
- AlotOfReading 2y ago
  You're pretty lucky to be unaffected. I'm not in defense, but just off the top of my head Lockheed is doing layoffs in CT due to the loss of FARA. Raytheon is continuing their layoff death spiral and shutting down some stuff in Texas. Boeing is hemorrhaging people and money for obvious reasons. That's just the three largest contractors.

cvwright 2y ago

Lately it seems these are always revised down after the initial release. In a month we may find out that the real numbers are even worse.

pseudo0 2y ago
Yup, continuing the trend in this release: > The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 57,000, from +165,000 to +108,000, and the change for May was revised down by 54,000, from +272,000 to +218,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 111,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)