5 ms·
Karl Popper was being a logician about it. People aren't claiming supernatural powers with market trend analysis like some Helena Blavatsky of electronics or th
by kristopolous 2y ago
Karl Popper was being a logician about it. People aren't claiming supernatural powers with market trend analysis like some Helena Blavatsky of electronics or that these "laws" hold like thermodynamics.
If it's been good for 60 years so that might continue or maybe something unexpected will happen.
Popper's piecemeal alternative predicts nothing. The market trend analysis is at least accurate > 0% of the time. It's a non-scientific process with unquantifiable accuracy but it is empirically non-zero. For instance, Geofferey Moore's adoption curves proposed in 1991 are widely found but, every now and then, the galloping animal is a zebra. This doesn't mean you shouldn't plan for horses.
Presuming a decade or two from now people will connect their wearables powered by kinetic charging to foldable e-paper with a transparent solar panel layer is just a bet.
Maybe something radical will happen instead: The public payphone will come back as a public computer that people will biometrically log into after shunning personal electronics as toxic spy machines ruining society. Eh, probably not, but maybe.
- Bluestein 2y ago> every now and then, the galloping animal is a zebra. This doesn't mean you shouldn't plan for horses. With permission, I am going to put that on a t-shirt :)
- kristopolous 2y agoI'm not that brilliant! I borrowed it from medical slang https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zebra_(medicine) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zebra_(medicine) So steal away
- Bluestein 2y agoAppreciated. (As is the intellectual honesty :)