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Anyone who thought the Brexit dream was going to be anything other than a nightmare was either a fraud, or convinced by one.

jfengel 2y ago
Oddly, it's not nearly the disaster I anticipated. It looks like an ordinary weak economy, the kind you get from time to time. It's certainly a disaster compared to "we hold all the cards", said by a fraud and many were convinced by that fraud. I hope they are coming to understand that relative nightmare and turn out the fraudsters for a very long time. At the end of that time I suspect they'll find themselves mostly not-as-well-off-as-they-could-be, rather than actually poverty stricken and isolated. It'll be the kind of thing economists point to on charts, but not really easy to see in the various economic noise. I hope it's no worse than that. And maybe, just maybe, that somebody somewhere learned something.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  > It looks like an ordinary weak economy, the kind you get from time to time. The real question is, can they get out of it? It's one thing to do it for a few years, but, if nothing else, they can't afford to run current budget deficits forever, and they don't have _that_ much scope for increasing revenue other than growing the economy. And really that deficit is with spending lower than it should be; public services are really struggling at this point. Like, in some sense it is an ordinary weak economy, but self-inflicted; the government's own office of budget responsibility reckons they've sacrificed 4% of GDP in the long term. For a developed economy, that's not a small hole to climb out of.
  - fmajid 2y ago
    The weak economy existed before Brexit. The UK under Thatcher replaced industry with financial services chicanery, and never recovered from the 2008 crisis. Now it's even lost its business in money-laundering to Dubai and has to rebuild from scratch. Labour has sensible policies on curbing the NIMBYs, mainly Tories, who block desperately-needed construction or building the power grid needed to transport renewable energy from Scotland to England, and that alone could provide a significant boost to growth for a decade or two if they can deliver.
- 5350-uiop-1130 2y ago
  > Oddly, it's not nearly the disaster I anticipated. It looks like an ordinary weak economy, the kind you get from time to time. well they lost the right to live, work and freely travel through the EU. and what did they gain in return for that. a weak economy.
- maxehmookau 2y ago
  It depends who you are. If you're a small business that traded with the EU, it was a disaster. If you're a consumer who buys things from the EU, it was a disaster. If you were an assistance dog owner that travelling regularly to the EU, it was a disaster. If you were a young person hoping to study in the EU, it's a disaster. If you're fairly rich/wealthy now, then sure, it's basically fine.
ActionHank 2y ago
I am not British, but as an outsider looking in it was very obvious that they were shooting themselves in the foot by distancing their closest trading partners. At the time of the vote I remember a conversation with a friend's wife, who is British. I simply asked her opinion. The response I got was so caustic and vitriolic. She was very much supportive of the separation, but had no real reason other than "the foreigners are taking jobs from those born in the UK". She was fully convinced and pissed that I even asked because it clearly meant that I was challenging their rights and freedoms. It was then that I knew it was not only a bad decision economically, but that it was being made out of irrational thinking and not logical decision making.

jfengel 2y ago

Oddly, it's not nearly the disaster I anticipated. It looks like an ordinary weak economy, the kind you get from time to time. It's certainly a disaster compared to "we hold all the cards", said by a fraud and many were convinced by that fraud. I hope they are coming to understand that relative nightmare and turn out the fraudsters for a very long time. At the end of that time I suspect they'll find themselves mostly not-as-well-off-as-they-could-be, rather than actually poverty stricken and isolated. It'll be the kind of thing economists point to on charts, but not really easy to see in the various economic noise. I hope it's no worse than that. And maybe, just maybe, that somebody somewhere learned something.

rsynnott 2y ago
> It looks like an ordinary weak economy, the kind you get from time to time. The real question is, can they get out of it? It's one thing to do it for a few years, but, if nothing else, they can't afford to run current budget deficits forever, and they don't have _that_ much scope for increasing revenue other than growing the economy. And really that deficit is with spending lower than it should be; public services are really struggling at this point. Like, in some sense it is an ordinary weak economy, but self-inflicted; the government's own office of budget responsibility reckons they've sacrificed 4% of GDP in the long term. For a developed economy, that's not a small hole to climb out of.
- fmajid 2y ago
  The weak economy existed before Brexit. The UK under Thatcher replaced industry with financial services chicanery, and never recovered from the 2008 crisis. Now it's even lost its business in money-laundering to Dubai and has to rebuild from scratch. Labour has sensible policies on curbing the NIMBYs, mainly Tories, who block desperately-needed construction or building the power grid needed to transport renewable energy from Scotland to England, and that alone could provide a significant boost to growth for a decade or two if they can deliver.
5350-uiop-1130 2y ago
> Oddly, it's not nearly the disaster I anticipated. It looks like an ordinary weak economy, the kind you get from time to time. well they lost the right to live, work and freely travel through the EU. and what did they gain in return for that. a weak economy.
maxehmookau 2y ago
It depends who you are. If you're a small business that traded with the EU, it was a disaster. If you're a consumer who buys things from the EU, it was a disaster. If you were an assistance dog owner that travelling regularly to the EU, it was a disaster. If you were a young person hoping to study in the EU, it's a disaster. If you're fairly rich/wealthy now, then sure, it's basically fine.

ActionHank 2y ago

I am not British, but as an outsider looking in it was very obvious that they were shooting themselves in the foot by distancing their closest trading partners. At the time of the vote I remember a conversation with a friend's wife, who is British. I simply asked her opinion. The response I got was so caustic and vitriolic. She was very much supportive of the separation, but had no real reason other than "the foreigners are taking jobs from those born in the UK". She was fully convinced and pissed that I even asked because it clearly meant that I was challenging their rights and freedoms. It was then that I knew it was not only a bad decision economically, but that it was being made out of irrational thinking and not logical decision making.