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Yep. I'm also not a statistician, but linear regression that the blogger is using predicts the mean for each state, and this is being conflated with trying to p
by greesil 2y ago
Yep. I'm also not a statistician, but linear regression that the blogger is using predicts the mean for each state, and this is being conflated with trying to predict p(color | state). The goodness of fit here would be better modeled cross entropy and not a standard deviation.
- kgwgk 2y agoFor what it's worth, the "blogger" is an statistician.
- ayhanfuat 2y agoI mean, Andrew Gelman, he is quite the statistician.
- greesil 2y agoOh he only went to MIT, pfff. And wrote a textbook.
- Xcelerate 2y agoHaha, this is why I always Google whoever the author is to articles posted on HN before commenting. More than once I've thought "this person is an idiot" only to Google their name and find out they are a famous person in that field. Then I go back and re-read their article and realize I missed something more subtle going on.
- lupire 2y agoThis seems to be a special case. The blog post was rebutted by Seth in the comments 2 weeks ago, same as Colin Percival's HN rebuttal, and Andrew didn't reply. It seems like a weird goof. Andrew was "buggin".
- Xcelerate 2y agoYeah, the more I read the post the more confused I am actually. At first glance to me this seemed like a non-paradox. So I kept wondering if I'm missing something, but based on everyone's responses, maybe I'm not?