4 ms·

Although Beryl is not going to hit Florida, how will these increased hurricanes impact Miami's goal of becoming the financial capital of the US?

by abirch 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago
Florida will end up as a playground for those who can absorb the cost of structure insurance (wind and flood) premiums or self insure. Anyone reliant on financing that requires insurance will flee, as the PITI (principal interest taxes insurance) monthly payments will exceed what local wages can support. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/05/28/are-we-in-the-midst-of-a-climate-housing-bubble/ https://www.marketplace.org/2024/05/28/are-we-in-the-midst-o... https://www.nestapple.com/states-that-floridians-are-moving-to-explained/ https://www.nestapple.com/states-that-floridians-are-moving-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/foreclosure-spike-warning-signs-in-texas-florida-amid-rising-taxes-insurance https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/foreclosu... | https://archive.today/mRCPD https://archive.today/mRCPD https://www.wired.com/story/banks-are-finally-realizing-what-climate-change-will-do-to-housing/ https://www.wired.com/story/banks-are-finally-realizing-what... | https://archive.today/Yhhwb https://archive.today/Yhhwb https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40385902 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40385902
- wing-_-nuts 2y ago
  I do wonder if we'll see people change the architecture and material of houses to deal with the increased risk? You have to think at some point beach houses are going to go from 'luxury' to a brutalist, elevated tornado shelter type thing on stilts.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    I have done some building sciences work in the Yucatan Peninsula (Merida, specifically); I expect that sort of building to be more common in places with high wind/hurricane risk. You're going to get concrete units with the entire building rated for 200+ mph winds, window/balcony openings with Miami Dade code shutter ratings, and with robust flood defense (no parking or utilities the first 20 feet from the ground, everything elevated to higher floors to withstand surge and flooding). I shudder to think what's going to happen to a lot of luxury high rise construction currently taking place between Cancun and Isla Blanca, as it is not up to these standards (and currently directly in the path of this storm and future storm tracks). US building material costs have gone up 30% since before the pandemic though, so you'd need to pencil out if you can even break even on building these buildings. I think that's the real challenge, so much housing stock in the US is coasting on embodied inexpensive material and labor costs that no longer exist, and it is painfully expensive to try to build affordable housing today (at least in my experience). Can we even afford to build in higher climate risk areas [1]? It might be cheaper to pay people to migrate, and hold the land as unbuildable (as FEMA does today in repeat loss areas). For the very well off, they'll just eat the cost of any losses of non weather fortified structures to keep the aesthetics. Maybe that's a conspicuous consumption/Veblen good of the future. TLDR The cost of climate change is too damn high [2]. [1] https://firststreet.org/ https://firststreet.org/ [2] https://www.wired.com/story/everythings-about-to-get-a-hell-of-a-lot-more-expensive-due-to-climate-change/ https://www.wired.com/story/everythings-about-to-get-a-hell-...
  - Suppafly 2y ago
    I wonder if you can even build something that can withstand those storms. It's like talking about building tornado proof houses in the midwest, it just not something that can be done.
- legitster 2y ago
  There's a perverse incentive here - the US flood insurance program is heavily government subsidized and the government is already loosing money hand over fist rebuilding homes in flood zones.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Progress is being made in accurately pricing this risk and exposing consumers to this signal, but there are still stakeholders attempting to slow this progress (unfortunately). https://www.eenews.net/articles/flood-insurance-rates-will-soar-in-some-areas-fema-says/ https://www.eenews.net/articles/flood-insurance-rates-will-s... https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/work-with-nfip/risk-rating/single-family-home https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/work-with-nfip/risk-rat...
    - legitster 2y ago
      Well, and I think at the end of the day, the government is still insuring properties that have no right to be getting insurance.
etx 2y ago
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Although Beryl is not going to hit Florida, how will these increased hurricanes impact Miami's goal of becoming the financial capital of the US?

by abirch 2y ago

Although Beryl is not going to hit Florida, how will these increased hurricanes impact Miami's goal of becoming the financial capital of the US?

toomuchtodo 2y ago

Florida will end up as a playground for those who can absorb the cost of structure insurance (wind and flood) premiums or self insure. Anyone reliant on financing that requires insurance will flee, as the PITI (principal interest taxes insurance) monthly payments will exceed what local wages can support. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/05/28/are-we-in-the-midst-of-a-climate-housing-bubble/ https://www.marketplace.org/2024/05/28/are-we-in-the-midst-o... https://www.nestapple.com/states-that-floridians-are-moving-to-explained/ https://www.nestapple.com/states-that-floridians-are-moving-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/foreclosure-spike-warning-signs-in-texas-florida-amid-rising-taxes-insurance https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/foreclosu... | https://archive.today/mRCPD https://archive.today/mRCPD https://www.wired.com/story/banks-are-finally-realizing-what-climate-change-will-do-to-housing/ https://www.wired.com/story/banks-are-finally-realizing-what... | https://archive.today/Yhhwb https://archive.today/Yhhwb https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40385902 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40385902

wing-_-nuts 2y ago
I do wonder if we'll see people change the architecture and material of houses to deal with the increased risk? You have to think at some point beach houses are going to go from 'luxury' to a brutalist, elevated tornado shelter type thing on stilts.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  I have done some building sciences work in the Yucatan Peninsula (Merida, specifically); I expect that sort of building to be more common in places with high wind/hurricane risk. You're going to get concrete units with the entire building rated for 200+ mph winds, window/balcony openings with Miami Dade code shutter ratings, and with robust flood defense (no parking or utilities the first 20 feet from the ground, everything elevated to higher floors to withstand surge and flooding). I shudder to think what's going to happen to a lot of luxury high rise construction currently taking place between Cancun and Isla Blanca, as it is not up to these standards (and currently directly in the path of this storm and future storm tracks). US building material costs have gone up 30% since before the pandemic though, so you'd need to pencil out if you can even break even on building these buildings. I think that's the real challenge, so much housing stock in the US is coasting on embodied inexpensive material and labor costs that no longer exist, and it is painfully expensive to try to build affordable housing today (at least in my experience). Can we even afford to build in higher climate risk areas [1]? It might be cheaper to pay people to migrate, and hold the land as unbuildable (as FEMA does today in repeat loss areas). For the very well off, they'll just eat the cost of any losses of non weather fortified structures to keep the aesthetics. Maybe that's a conspicuous consumption/Veblen good of the future. TLDR The cost of climate change is too damn high [2]. [1] https://firststreet.org/ https://firststreet.org/ [2] https://www.wired.com/story/everythings-about-to-get-a-hell-of-a-lot-more-expensive-due-to-climate-change/ https://www.wired.com/story/everythings-about-to-get-a-hell-...
- Suppafly 2y ago
  I wonder if you can even build something that can withstand those storms. It's like talking about building tornado proof houses in the midwest, it just not something that can be done.
legitster 2y ago
There's a perverse incentive here - the US flood insurance program is heavily government subsidized and the government is already loosing money hand over fist rebuilding homes in flood zones.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Progress is being made in accurately pricing this risk and exposing consumers to this signal, but there are still stakeholders attempting to slow this progress (unfortunately). https://www.eenews.net/articles/flood-insurance-rates-will-soar-in-some-areas-fema-says/ https://www.eenews.net/articles/flood-insurance-rates-will-s... https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/work-with-nfip/risk-rating/single-family-home https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/work-with-nfip/risk-rat...
  - legitster 2y ago
    Well, and I think at the end of the day, the government is still insuring properties that have no right to be getting insurance.

etx 2y ago

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