If I could predict with 50% accuracy which startups would unicorn and which would die I'd be extraordinarily wealthy. For example, invest $1000 in two companie

If I could predict with 50% accuracy which startups would unicorn and which would die I'd be extraordinarily wealthy. For example, invest $1000 in two companies, and expect a 100x gain and a $1000 loss over the next 5 years. (I say "out of the gate" because you can change your bets as situations and positions evolve, and I'm sure MS do.)