3 ms·

my initial reaction: wait who cares about the temperature forecast? it seems like the easier part and the not particularly-important part. > The Weather Servic

by pxx 2y ago

my initial reaction: wait who cares about the temperature forecast? it seems like the easier part and the not particularly-important part. > The Weather Service also assesses its precipitation forecast, but the patterns are a little harder to unpack — especially with just one year’s worth of data — so we stuck with temperature. that seems like flimsy justification. I'd love to see the lead plot with precipitation.

randomsolutions 2y ago
I agree it seems like flimsy justification. But it is also likely harder to assess and communicate. Temperature they get a point prediction for the high and you can easily calculate the mean absolute error. For precipitation you will be getting percent chance often with an interval, 10% chance of 0.1-0.25 inches with higher likely in thunderstorms. Also precipitation patterns tend to be much more irregular within small spatial extents. You can asses things like calibration and perhaps take a mean value for there intervals to get point errors. But all of this will make it harder to communicate actual performance.
- bastawhiz 2y ago
  But temperature error matters a lot less. 82° instead of 87° is "high" error but the practical difference for me is essentially zero. If it's raining when my phone said it wouldn't rain, I have to change my plans.
  - dendrite9 2y ago
    I had a friend who did forecasting for a utility and getting the forecast wrong by 5 degree would have been very expensive at the time. I don't remember if it was worse in the summer (AC) or winter. And I wish I could remember if they were buying just electricity or also natural gas In the same vein as you, I don't care much if it is raining at my office closer to the mountains but I care about it at home. The distance is ~10 miles and I regularly can see a difference.

3 ms·

my initial reaction: wait who cares about the temperature forecast? it seems like the easier part and the not particularly-important part. > The Weather Servic

by pxx 2y ago

randomsolutions 2y ago
I agree it seems like flimsy justification. But it is also likely harder to assess and communicate. Temperature they get a point prediction for the high and you can easily calculate the mean absolute error. For precipitation you will be getting percent chance often with an interval, 10% chance of 0.1-0.25 inches with higher likely in thunderstorms. Also precipitation patterns tend to be much more irregular within small spatial extents. You can asses things like calibration and perhaps take a mean value for there intervals to get point errors. But all of this will make it harder to communicate actual performance.
- bastawhiz 2y ago
  But temperature error matters a lot less. 82° instead of 87° is "high" error but the practical difference for me is essentially zero. If it's raining when my phone said it wouldn't rain, I have to change my plans.
  - dendrite9 2y ago
    I had a friend who did forecasting for a utility and getting the forecast wrong by 5 degree would have been very expensive at the time. I don't remember if it was worse in the summer (AC) or winter. And I wish I could remember if they were buying just electricity or also natural gas In the same vein as you, I don't care much if it is raining at my office closer to the mountains but I care about it at home. The distance is ~10 miles and I regularly can see a difference.