4 ms·
50% accuracy out of the gate is incredibly good for investment analysis.
by DavidPiper 2y ago
50% accuracy out of the gate is incredibly good for investment analysis.
- iamlucaswolf 2y agoIf you had <50% accuracy in expectation you could improve your analysis by inverting it, I suppose...
- shepherdjerred 2y agoAnd, to improve your chances further, you'd just need to know when you'd have more to gain by inverting your choice versus not inverting.
- rybosworld 2y agoHow so? Isn't that equivalent to saying on heads I buy, on tails I sell? What makes that incredibly good?
- DavidPiper 2y agoIf I could predict with 50% accuracy which startups would unicorn and which would die I'd be extraordinarily wealthy. For example, invest $1000 in two companies, and expect a 100x gain and a $1000 loss over the next 5 years. (I say "out of the gate" because you can change your bets as situations and positions evolve, and I'm sure MS do.)