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Is there any way to short Open AI and this nonsense that AGI is round the corner? They might prove to be useful to some degree (niche areas) but as soon as I gi
by andy_ppp 2y ago
Is there any way to short Open AI and this nonsense that AGI is round the corner? They might prove to be useful to some degree (niche areas) but as soon as I give the LLMs information or problems they haven't seen before they completely struggle to do anything sensible. Try getting them to compare two different JSON documents, they are very confident and produce absolute garbage if these have not been seen at the training stage.
If they can't handle new ideas humans will always be much more useful and these systems are good for references and human learning are not good for creating something new and of value. I've noticed for text LLMs are quite weirdly repetitive and have an empty style that requires a lot of editing to get it into a shape humans would craft.
People will say the improvements are coming but I think most of them have come from more data which is running out. I think one of the most profound things about real intelligence is being able to define and update concepts within your own mind… how to add new information to LLMs in realtime and have that reflected across the board seems intractable given the training and refinement these things would sit upon. There is no clear unit of information about a concept that links to all the other ideas. LLMs seem quite limited by this.
The brain is so much more complex than these algorithms too and so much more flexible, I don't see how a very good encyclopaedia with some fuzzy AI concept extraction capability is in any way the same as the human brain being able to apply and adapt concepts from all around art, science, literature and the human experience.
- simonw 2y ago"Try getting them to compare two different JSON documents" If you're using ChatGPT, try adding "use Python" and see what happens. Tool usage like Code Interpreter dramatically increases the capabilities of existing models.
- quickthrowman 2y ago> Is there any way to short Open AI and this nonsense that AGI is round the corner? NVDA is a decent proxy for OpenAI, their market cap would evaporate if big tech stopped buying.
- valicord 2y agoPeople said the same thing a few years back during the cryptocurrency bubble...
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- quickthrowman 2y agoNVDA peaked around 30 in 2022 and went down to 10 after ETH went PoS. BTC went from 60k to 20k in the same period. Seems like a perfectly good proxy to me? You could make the argument that rate hikes caused both, but NVDA was looking iffy in between crypto mining and ChatGPT. I did not say I would short NVDA personally, mind you.
- rsynnott 2y agoRemember, the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Shorting is expensive.