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This is not an argument. Good investment in any sector requires diversification. The IPCC 1.5°C report published late in 2018 presents 89 mitigation scenarios

by Herz 2y ago

This is not an argument. Good investment in any sector requires diversification. The IPCC 1.5°C report published late in 2018 presents 89 mitigation scenarios in which nuclear generation grows on average 2.5 times from today’s level by 2050. Besides the fact that no one predicts how much more renewables can scale, where prices will go, and whether they will be enough. All it takes is one war or a few more tariffs with China to screw up renewable-only decarbonization. That's why it's important to diversify and not assume anything. If a source is green, it must be used. Then it's curious how all the anti-nuclear people I argue with are from Germany. You have chosen your own path, don't come and impose your ideologies on others :)

toomuchtodo 2y ago
As long as it’s your fiat, spend it however you want. Don’t come to the public coffers for a boondoggle though. We are rapidly approaching 1TW/year deployment rates of solar, and every time manufacturing capacity doubles, cost drops 20%. You could replace all of the world's nuclear generation capacity (~370GW) with battery firmed solar in less time than it will take to build a single nuclear reactor (~10 years from shovels in the dirt to first kwh to the grid). Components in both the solar and batteries are mostly human safe compared to fission, and can be recycled using existing processes today. Australia, for example, has 10,000x the solar potential of its current electrical usage. But I digress; I assume nuclear proponents will continue to beat the drum until the last nuclear generator is sunset. Solar is the ultimate democratization of energy, and we don't need PR puff pieces; we need the solar manufacturing and deployment flywheel to keep spinning up. Enough sunlight falls on the Earth in under an hour to power humanity for a year. https://archive.is/2024.06.24-223854/https://www.economist.com/interactive/essay/2024/06/20/solar-power-is-going-to-be-huge https://archive.is/2024.06.24-223854/https://www.economist.c... https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/solar-panel-prices-have-fallen-by-around-20-every-time-global-capacity-doubled https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/solar-panel-prices-... https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing-map https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing-map https://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/interactive-data/solar-manufacturing-map https://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/interactive-data/s... (think in systems)
- Herz 2y ago
  You have not answered any of my points. You are only making propaganda. Have fun.
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  - throwawayqqq11 2y ago
    Diversity in energy sources is a good point but not strictly an argumemt for nuclear power. You claim some hypothetical event with china to cross the plans of global low tech solar/wind energy but ignore the impact on constructions of nuclear power plants, which, as previous comment noted, take much longer to build. > If a source is green, it must be used. "Green" is a perfect propaganda pitch btw. The actual problems we try to solve are energy source and waste products. Nuclear energy looses on both aspects, which is why its much more expensive (also including risk/complexity). IMO nuclear power became just another alternative narrative, like ivermectin, because right wingers cant deny covid or climate change anymore and cant bow to the other side. You have weak arguments against renewable energy and none for nuclear yet you smell propaganda and ideology and dismiss a well sourced comment. I am using your own arguments against you. > Besides the fact that no one predicts how much more renewables[/nuclear] can scale [or last], where prices will go, and whether they will be enough. All it takes is one war or a few more tariffs with China to screw up renewable[/nuclear]-only decarbonization.
    - Herz 2y ago
      > You claim some hypothetical event with china to cross the plans of global low tech solar/wind energy but ignore the impact on constructions of nuclear power plants, which, as previous comment noted, take much longer to build. Why should I respond to someone who proposes to build renewable in parallel, while omitting in the same sentence the possibility of building multiple reactors in parallel? It's a rhetorical game that says enough about the user's goals. I do not intend to stoop to such a level. > You claim some hypothetical event with china to cross the plans of global low tech solar/wind energy but ignore the impact on constructions of nuclear power plants. I am not ignoring anything, I repeat, going only renewable implies not diversifying. That a geopolitical problem could destroy decarbonization goals is a real risk. Or do you want to deny China's total monopoly in the industry? No energy source is perfect, including nuclear and solar, so stop adding arguments just to overshadow the problems we're talking about. > "Green" is a perfect propaganda pitch btw. Well, we can define and use the word that you prefer. By green I mean a technology whose emissions are low enough to help in decarbonization. Is it better? Decarbonization is the main issue here. > The actual problems we try to solve are energy source and waste products. Nuclear energy looses on both aspects, which is why its much more expensive (also including risk/complexity). As I wrote earlier, the main problem is decarbonization. Secondary problems exist in any kind of energy source. That the IPCC predicts nuclear growth in most scenarios is quite indicative of its relevance to decarbonization. So nuclear power is important for decarbonization. And it has been shown over the decades to be a viable option for providing electricity with low emissions. Do you deny this? Once we accept that, we can discuss how slow and expensive it is, but before then I don't see it possible to engage in an intellectually honest discourse :)

by Herz 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago

As long as it’s your fiat, spend it however you want. Don’t come to the public coffers for a boondoggle though. We are rapidly approaching 1TW/year deployment rates of solar, and every time manufacturing capacity doubles, cost drops 20%. You could replace all of the world's nuclear generation capacity (~370GW) with battery firmed solar in less time than it will take to build a single nuclear reactor (~10 years from shovels in the dirt to first kwh to the grid). Components in both the solar and batteries are mostly human safe compared to fission, and can be recycled using existing processes today. Australia, for example, has 10,000x the solar potential of its current electrical usage. But I digress; I assume nuclear proponents will continue to beat the drum until the last nuclear generator is sunset. Solar is the ultimate democratization of energy, and we don't need PR puff pieces; we need the solar manufacturing and deployment flywheel to keep spinning up. Enough sunlight falls on the Earth in under an hour to power humanity for a year. https://archive.is/2024.06.24-223854/https://www.economist.com/interactive/essay/2024/06/20/solar-power-is-going-to-be-huge https://archive.is/2024.06.24-223854/https://www.economist.c... https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/solar-panel-prices-have-fallen-by-around-20-every-time-global-capacity-doubled https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/solar-panel-prices-... https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing-map https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-manufacturing-map https://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/interactive-data/solar-manufacturing-map https://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/interactive-data/s... (think in systems)

Herz 2y ago
You have not answered any of my points. You are only making propaganda. Have fun.
- deleted 2y ago
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- deleted 2y ago
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- throwawayqqq11 2y ago
  Diversity in energy sources is a good point but not strictly an argumemt for nuclear power. You claim some hypothetical event with china to cross the plans of global low tech solar/wind energy but ignore the impact on constructions of nuclear power plants, which, as previous comment noted, take much longer to build. > If a source is green, it must be used. "Green" is a perfect propaganda pitch btw. The actual problems we try to solve are energy source and waste products. Nuclear energy looses on both aspects, which is why its much more expensive (also including risk/complexity). IMO nuclear power became just another alternative narrative, like ivermectin, because right wingers cant deny covid or climate change anymore and cant bow to the other side. You have weak arguments against renewable energy and none for nuclear yet you smell propaganda and ideology and dismiss a well sourced comment. I am using your own arguments against you. > Besides the fact that no one predicts how much more renewables[/nuclear] can scale [or last], where prices will go, and whether they will be enough. All it takes is one war or a few more tariffs with China to screw up renewable[/nuclear]-only decarbonization.
  - Herz 2y ago
    > You claim some hypothetical event with china to cross the plans of global low tech solar/wind energy but ignore the impact on constructions of nuclear power plants, which, as previous comment noted, take much longer to build. Why should I respond to someone who proposes to build renewable in parallel, while omitting in the same sentence the possibility of building multiple reactors in parallel? It's a rhetorical game that says enough about the user's goals. I do not intend to stoop to such a level. > You claim some hypothetical event with china to cross the plans of global low tech solar/wind energy but ignore the impact on constructions of nuclear power plants. I am not ignoring anything, I repeat, going only renewable implies not diversifying. That a geopolitical problem could destroy decarbonization goals is a real risk. Or do you want to deny China's total monopoly in the industry? No energy source is perfect, including nuclear and solar, so stop adding arguments just to overshadow the problems we're talking about. > "Green" is a perfect propaganda pitch btw. Well, we can define and use the word that you prefer. By green I mean a technology whose emissions are low enough to help in decarbonization. Is it better? Decarbonization is the main issue here. > The actual problems we try to solve are energy source and waste products. Nuclear energy looses on both aspects, which is why its much more expensive (also including risk/complexity). As I wrote earlier, the main problem is decarbonization. Secondary problems exist in any kind of energy source. That the IPCC predicts nuclear growth in most scenarios is quite indicative of its relevance to decarbonization. So nuclear power is important for decarbonization. And it has been shown over the decades to be a viable option for providing electricity with low emissions. Do you deny this? Once we accept that, we can discuss how slow and expensive it is, but before then I don't see it possible to engage in an intellectually honest discourse :)