4 ms·

I'm reminded of a tweet by Elon Musk, which struck me as the ultimate in explicit, unapologetic reality denial: "Better to be optimistic and wrong, than pessimi

by lapcat 2y ago

I'm reminded of a tweet by Elon Musk, which struck me as the ultimate in explicit, unapologetic reality denial: "Better to be optimistic and wrong, than pessimistic and right!" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1633208268238757888 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1633208268238757888

boxed 2y ago
You have clearly misunderstood the concept. It's not reality denial in that case, it's a call to try things. Just sitting around all doom and gloom will create exactly zero new science and technology. You have to try shit, even if the odds are bad.
- lapcat 2y ago
  > You have clearly misunderstood the concept. "clearly" > It's not reality denial in that case, it's a call to try things. But he didn't just say "try things, even if the odds are bad". That would be unremarkable, though also bad advice in general, like a lottery winner telling everyone to buy lottery tickets. I feel that you're in denial of the reality of what he said, which explicitly mentions being right or wrong, not just trying things. I would say that it's better to know the truth in any case, whether the truth happens to be pleasant or unpleasant.
  - boxed 2y ago
    He started a car company when everyone said it was impossible. He started a rocket company when everyone said it was super hard. He made that rocket company land the first stages, when everyone thought it was impossible. He's an ass, but you can't argue with the results. Twisting some of his words out of context might feel good because you can bash on the outgroup, but it also makes you look silly and makes your group (MY GROUP!) look bad. Please stop.
    - lapcat 2y ago
      > He's an ass, but you can't argue with the results. I wasn't. None of your reply is even relevant to mine. I'm just opposed to the idea pushed by the "positivity cult" that one's personal attitude is more important than the truth, and it's better to be wrong than right if wrongness comes with optimism. I actually suspect that Musk is not consistent in his stated views, and he doesn't allow his subordinate engineers to be consistently wrong but overly optimistic. At least I hope not. You seem to want to talk about his accomplishments. But wouldn't that make him optimistic and right? The tweet, on the other hand, is talking about being optimistic and wrong. You have clearly misunderstood the concept... Perhaps you're under the misapprehension that what he does outside of social media justifies the stuff he says on social media? That isn't true. Incidentally, "everyone said"/"everyone thought" is almost always an exaggeration/falsehood.
      - boxed 2y ago
        > I actually suspect that Musk is not consistent in his stated views, and he doesn't allow his subordinate engineers to be consistently wrong but overly optimistic. At least I hope not. Yea, context is everything. You should watch the interview he did with Everyday Astronaut where the interviewer made him redesign Starship with a question. There are tons of good lessons and self reflection in there.
doytch 2y ago
From your snippet I was wondering whether he was butchering the concept that pessimism is suffering twice (both in anticipation and when your pessimism is confirmed) whereas optimism is only suffering once. But the context of Elon's tweet actually makes more sense than I was expecting from a tweet from Elon. If everyone's pessimistic about the future and doesn't even try then we'll never accomplish anything. There's nuance to this topic - we shouldn't strip it out.
- lapcat 2y ago
  > If everyone's pessimistic about the future and doesn't even try then we'll never accomplish anything. But if optimists are wrong and pessimists are right, then you won't accomplish anything. > There's nuance to this topic - we shouldn't strip it out. Musk was responding to and agreeing with a tweet, "The biggest problem in the West right now is many people no longer believe the future will be better than the past." With regard to, say, global warming, I would say it's rationally undeniable the future will be worse than the past, and the biggest problem isn't a lack of optimism in the present but rather a lack of pessmism in the past. We've known about global warming for many many decades but have done almost nothing to stop it. And a luxury car brand hasn't even made a dent in the problem, a much bigger problem than one person can solve, no matter how wealthy, and it certainly doesn't help that this one person is using any political influence he might have to support people who are in denial of climate change. One might also wonder, by the way, whether the optimism-fueled and rocket-fueled pollution of the upper atmosphere in pursuit of "Mars" is offsetting any small environmental benefit of the luxury car brand. There are consequences of "trying" things. Oh, and the optimist also wants to try increasing the Earth's human population. More "consciousness". (Not to mention more consumption.)
  - runjake 2y ago
    I think your issue is that you are just a pessimist and aren't able to, or don't want to understand the optimist's viewpoint. > With regard to, say, global warming, I would say it's rationally undeniable the future will be worse than the past, and the biggest problem isn't a lack of optimism in the present but rather a lack of pessmism in the past. Life is primarily about problem-solving. From a quantified perspective, the world is improving over time. There is less suffering now than in the past. This progress is driven by optimists who put in the effort to make the world better. We constantly face problems to solve, both on a personal and global scale. Even as the world improves, there will always be significant challenges to address. Despite your passive-aggressive swipes at Elon, he has done much more than you or I for the betterment of the planets. He's made EVs and renewable energy mainstream. > We've known about global warming for many many decades but have done almost nothing to stop it. What are you talking about? The world has done a lot to combat global warming. Just a few things: - Paris Agreement - Kyoto Protocol - Significant investments in wind, solar, and hydro-electric. - Drastically improved energy efficiency standards and regulations for buildings, vehicles, appliances, and industrial. - Increased focus on large-scale reforestation and conservation. - Development of carbon capture technologies. - EV advances - Public awareness programs and grassroots movements. - Carbon and energy taxes PS: I assume you are "lapcatsoftware" Jeff? Because your pessimism is so signature? I encourage you to try and look at the bright side of things, if only for your own benefit.

by lapcat 2y ago

boxed 2y ago

You have clearly misunderstood the concept. It's not reality denial in that case, it's a call to try things. Just sitting around all doom and gloom will create exactly zero new science and technology. You have to try shit, even if the odds are bad.

lapcat 2y ago
> You have clearly misunderstood the concept. "clearly" > It's not reality denial in that case, it's a call to try things. But he didn't just say "try things, even if the odds are bad". That would be unremarkable, though also bad advice in general, like a lottery winner telling everyone to buy lottery tickets. I feel that you're in denial of the reality of what he said, which explicitly mentions being right or wrong, not just trying things. I would say that it's better to know the truth in any case, whether the truth happens to be pleasant or unpleasant.
- boxed 2y ago
  He started a car company when everyone said it was impossible. He started a rocket company when everyone said it was super hard. He made that rocket company land the first stages, when everyone thought it was impossible. He's an ass, but you can't argue with the results. Twisting some of his words out of context might feel good because you can bash on the outgroup, but it also makes you look silly and makes your group (MY GROUP!) look bad. Please stop.
  - lapcat 2y ago
    > He's an ass, but you can't argue with the results. I wasn't. None of your reply is even relevant to mine. I'm just opposed to the idea pushed by the "positivity cult" that one's personal attitude is more important than the truth, and it's better to be wrong than right if wrongness comes with optimism. I actually suspect that Musk is not consistent in his stated views, and he doesn't allow his subordinate engineers to be consistently wrong but overly optimistic. At least I hope not. You seem to want to talk about his accomplishments. But wouldn't that make him optimistic and right? The tweet, on the other hand, is talking about being optimistic and wrong. You have clearly misunderstood the concept... Perhaps you're under the misapprehension that what he does outside of social media justifies the stuff he says on social media? That isn't true. Incidentally, "everyone said"/"everyone thought" is almost always an exaggeration/falsehood.
    - boxed 2y ago
      > I actually suspect that Musk is not consistent in his stated views, and he doesn't allow his subordinate engineers to be consistently wrong but overly optimistic. At least I hope not. Yea, context is everything. You should watch the interview he did with Everyday Astronaut where the interviewer made him redesign Starship with a question. There are tons of good lessons and self reflection in there.

doytch 2y ago

From your snippet I was wondering whether he was butchering the concept that pessimism is suffering twice (both in anticipation and when your pessimism is confirmed) whereas optimism is only suffering once. But the context of Elon's tweet actually makes more sense than I was expecting from a tweet from Elon. If everyone's pessimistic about the future and doesn't even try then we'll never accomplish anything. There's nuance to this topic - we shouldn't strip it out.

lapcat 2y ago
> If everyone's pessimistic about the future and doesn't even try then we'll never accomplish anything. But if optimists are wrong and pessimists are right, then you won't accomplish anything. > There's nuance to this topic - we shouldn't strip it out. Musk was responding to and agreeing with a tweet, "The biggest problem in the West right now is many people no longer believe the future will be better than the past." With regard to, say, global warming, I would say it's rationally undeniable the future will be worse than the past, and the biggest problem isn't a lack of optimism in the present but rather a lack of pessmism in the past. We've known about global warming for many many decades but have done almost nothing to stop it. And a luxury car brand hasn't even made a dent in the problem, a much bigger problem than one person can solve, no matter how wealthy, and it certainly doesn't help that this one person is using any political influence he might have to support people who are in denial of climate change. One might also wonder, by the way, whether the optimism-fueled and rocket-fueled pollution of the upper atmosphere in pursuit of "Mars" is offsetting any small environmental benefit of the luxury car brand. There are consequences of "trying" things. Oh, and the optimist also wants to try increasing the Earth's human population. More "consciousness". (Not to mention more consumption.)
- runjake 2y ago
  I think your issue is that you are just a pessimist and aren't able to, or don't want to understand the optimist's viewpoint. > With regard to, say, global warming, I would say it's rationally undeniable the future will be worse than the past, and the biggest problem isn't a lack of optimism in the present but rather a lack of pessmism in the past. Life is primarily about problem-solving. From a quantified perspective, the world is improving over time. There is less suffering now than in the past. This progress is driven by optimists who put in the effort to make the world better. We constantly face problems to solve, both on a personal and global scale. Even as the world improves, there will always be significant challenges to address. Despite your passive-aggressive swipes at Elon, he has done much more than you or I for the betterment of the planets. He's made EVs and renewable energy mainstream. > We've known about global warming for many many decades but have done almost nothing to stop it. What are you talking about? The world has done a lot to combat global warming. Just a few things: - Paris Agreement - Kyoto Protocol - Significant investments in wind, solar, and hydro-electric. - Drastically improved energy efficiency standards and regulations for buildings, vehicles, appliances, and industrial. - Increased focus on large-scale reforestation and conservation. - Development of carbon capture technologies. - EV advances - Public awareness programs and grassroots movements. - Carbon and energy taxes PS: I assume you are "lapcatsoftware" Jeff? Because your pessimism is so signature? I encourage you to try and look at the bright side of things, if only for your own benefit.