3 ms·

The Onslow pumped hydro scheme is estimated to store 4,000 – 11,000 GWh, with an estimated cost of $16 billion NZD (9.7 billion USD), and be delivered in (at le

by zizee 2y ago

The Onslow pumped hydro scheme is estimated to store 4,000 – 11,000 GWh, with an estimated cost of $16 billion NZD (9.7 billion USD), and be delivered in (at least) 10 years time. Is that a cost of $881-2450 USD per kwhr? I presume there is ample room for cost blowouts as well. LiPo cells are currently costing about $110 to 130/kWh (USD), and trending downwards. Now large scale storage batteries are more than just the cells (Tesla megapacks are selling for 1.39M for 3.916 MW or about $410/kwhr), and cells probably wear out quicker than a dam, but it seems the Onslow scheme is not giving great bang for buck. The best you could say for it is that a lot of the spend would stay in NZ because a lot of the spend is in labour. Am I missing something? Is my math wrong? It seems to me spending 16 billion becoming experts in assembling large scale batteries would be a better long term investment for NZ. And they can get access to the storage as it is build, instead of waiting 10 years. https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/28349-identifying-potential-sites-for-large-scale-pumped-hydroelectric-energy-storage-phes-in-new-zealand-september-2021 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/28349-identifying-poten... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/03/06/battery-prices-collapsing-grid-tied-energy-storage-expanding/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/03/06/battery-prices-collap... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Megapack https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Megapack

jltsiren 2y ago
Your math is off by three orders of magnitude. The scale of the Onslow pumped hydro scheme is in billions of kWh, not in millions of kWh.
- chickenbig 2y ago
  https://cdn.auckland.ac.nz/assets/business/about/our-research/research-institutes-and-centres/energy-centre/summerschool/2021presentations/day2-m-taylor.pdf https://cdn.auckland.ac.nz/assets/business/about/our-researc... Indeed the above puts it as having 8TWh storage capacity (and perhaps 1.2GW power). Longer duration storage, with low cost to hold the energy (which hopefully does not evaporate too much during the bountiful times).
- zizee 2y ago
  Thanks for the correction. So this pumped hydro storage is at least 200x cheaper per kWh than current LiPo based solutions.
robocat 2y ago
We already have massive storage in New Zealand - our existing hydro lakes. What we need is solar installations. Reducing outflows is exactly the same as increasing storage. AFAIK the problem is that regulations (plus the obligation to kowtow to maori interests) is preventing solar installations from going ahead. It isn't an issue of money, because I happen to know one private enterprise happy to invest half a billion to build out utility solar if they could get the necessary approvals. It isn't due to our conservative government - the same problem occurred under Labour+Greens. And our lakes when full can hold months of storage - in theory they would only need to spill for irrigation or ecological reasons or maybe during short flood periods.
- beachy 2y ago
  > AFAIK the problem is that regulations (plus the obligation to kowtow to maori interests) is preventing solar installations from going ahead. You'll have to be more specific than that dodgy statement, it kind of undermines your good point. What obligations are you referring to, outside the resource management regime, which is most definitely "regulations"?
  - robocat 2y ago
    I'm not involved with the project so I can't give you more than the vague impression I got as an outsider. My general experience is that the NZ government tends to think big and blow money on wasteful initiatives while not identifying clearly advantageous initiatives and backing those (or otherwise encouraging the good stuff). That said, I have been pleasantly surprised with the broadband rollout (which helped during COVID).

by zizee 2y ago

jltsiren 2y ago

Your math is off by three orders of magnitude. The scale of the Onslow pumped hydro scheme is in billions of kWh, not in millions of kWh.

chickenbig 2y ago
https://cdn.auckland.ac.nz/assets/business/about/our-research/research-institutes-and-centres/energy-centre/summerschool/2021presentations/day2-m-taylor.pdf https://cdn.auckland.ac.nz/assets/business/about/our-researc... Indeed the above puts it as having 8TWh storage capacity (and perhaps 1.2GW power). Longer duration storage, with low cost to hold the energy (which hopefully does not evaporate too much during the bountiful times).
zizee 2y ago
Thanks for the correction. So this pumped hydro storage is at least 200x cheaper per kWh than current LiPo based solutions.

robocat 2y ago

We already have massive storage in New Zealand - our existing hydro lakes. What we need is solar installations. Reducing outflows is exactly the same as increasing storage. AFAIK the problem is that regulations (plus the obligation to kowtow to maori interests) is preventing solar installations from going ahead. It isn't an issue of money, because I happen to know one private enterprise happy to invest half a billion to build out utility solar if they could get the necessary approvals. It isn't due to our conservative government - the same problem occurred under Labour+Greens. And our lakes when full can hold months of storage - in theory they would only need to spill for irrigation or ecological reasons or maybe during short flood periods.

beachy 2y ago
> AFAIK the problem is that regulations (plus the obligation to kowtow to maori interests) is preventing solar installations from going ahead. You'll have to be more specific than that dodgy statement, it kind of undermines your good point. What obligations are you referring to, outside the resource management regime, which is most definitely "regulations"?
- robocat 2y ago
  I'm not involved with the project so I can't give you more than the vague impression I got as an outsider. My general experience is that the NZ government tends to think big and blow money on wasteful initiatives while not identifying clearly advantageous initiatives and backing those (or otherwise encouraging the good stuff). That said, I have been pleasantly surprised with the broadband rollout (which helped during COVID).