3 ms·

I’m fairly certain Ukraine would accept any truce that included Russia withdrawing all forces from the border, even if it was obviously just to rearm and redepl

I’m fairly certain Ukraine would accept any truce that included Russia withdrawing all forces from the border, even if it was obviously just to rearm and redeploy later. Ukraine doesn’t have any goals beyond removal of Russian forces from its 2013 borders — what else would they negotiate for? You make it sound like Ukraine wouldn’t agree to a truce unless Russia agreed to more than that, but I think that’s a strange take. Did you mean “cease fire” instead of truce?

tardy_one 2y ago
Russia withdrawing to 2013 borders is a pretty absurd possible diplomatic solution. If Russia withdrew to the stalemate of 2020 with no discussion would the Ukraine actually risk reopening the entire hot war again or try to find a manageable level of tit-for-tat skirmishes? Certainly Russia would prefer to try to reachieve that stalemate than enter a discussion that arrives at 2013 borders.. Perhaps in a situation where it was actually diplomatically solved and Russia actually wanted to accept 2013 borders there's something else on the line that is far more important than anything in the conflict. But realistically, most ends to the hot conflict probably will end in suspicion and a continued stockpiling of arms by both sides. I don't think anything will be resolvable until Putin is politically incapacitated and a replacement possibly doesn't see the conflict as worthwhile for their own political needs.
- defrost 2y ago
  > Certainly Russia would prefer to try to reachieve that stalemate than enter a discussion that arrives at 2013 borders.. Unlikely. Right there on the Ukraine invasion first target list was the blowing of the dam that stopped Ukraine water from going to Crimea. Resource analysts would say that lack of water to Crimea was a major, perhaps the major, reason for invading. The gain of taking Crimea was almost reversed by Ukraine cutting off water supply for almost a decade.
  - tardy_one 2y ago
    Retreating to the 2019 situation is not an acceptable outcome either for Russia, yet it is several levels above the proposed diplomatic outcome. I.e. they can run a base with limited water and forcibly move civilians so 2013 and 2019 are different positions.

tardy_one 2y ago

Russia withdrawing to 2013 borders is a pretty absurd possible diplomatic solution. If Russia withdrew to the stalemate of 2020 with no discussion would the Ukraine actually risk reopening the entire hot war again or try to find a manageable level of tit-for-tat skirmishes? Certainly Russia would prefer to try to reachieve that stalemate than enter a discussion that arrives at 2013 borders.. Perhaps in a situation where it was actually diplomatically solved and Russia actually wanted to accept 2013 borders there's something else on the line that is far more important than anything in the conflict. But realistically, most ends to the hot conflict probably will end in suspicion and a continued stockpiling of arms by both sides. I don't think anything will be resolvable until Putin is politically incapacitated and a replacement possibly doesn't see the conflict as worthwhile for their own political needs.

defrost 2y ago
> Certainly Russia would prefer to try to reachieve that stalemate than enter a discussion that arrives at 2013 borders.. Unlikely. Right there on the Ukraine invasion first target list was the blowing of the dam that stopped Ukraine water from going to Crimea. Resource analysts would say that lack of water to Crimea was a major, perhaps the major, reason for invading. The gain of taking Crimea was almost reversed by Ukraine cutting off water supply for almost a decade.
- tardy_one 2y ago
  Retreating to the 2019 situation is not an acceptable outcome either for Russia, yet it is several levels above the proposed diplomatic outcome. I.e. they can run a base with limited water and forcibly move civilians so 2013 and 2019 are different positions.