4 ms·

> The price has been relatively stable in the last ~4 years Your linked source shows the price in the last 4 years going from cell: $128->$107 Pack: $55->$32

by grecy 2y ago

> The price has been relatively stable in the last ~4 years Your linked source shows the price in the last 4 years going from cell: $128->$107 Pack: $55->$32 Real: $183->$139 So the price has dropped 25% in the last 4 years. That is NOT relatively stable by any definition.

cubefox 2y ago
If you look at the beginning of the chart, the price decrease (from $780 to $258 in 2017) over the same four year period was 67%. And for 2023 it was only 24%. So progress has slowed a lot. In 2022 there was even a year-over-year price increase. That's bad news when you want to build massive energy storage systems that can replace power plants.
- grecy 2y ago
  So what you're trying to say is - "In the past prices fell extremely fast, now they're falling just regular fast".
  - cubefox 2y ago
    I'm saying that prices are falling increasingly more slowly and that using solar+batteries to replace coal, gas and fission power plants will probably not happen.
    - grecy 2y ago
      > using solar+batteries to replace coal, gas and fission power plants will probably not happen That ship already sailed, many countries are already doing it.
      - cubefox 2y ago
        No, no country is doing it because batteries are far too expensive to replace stable energy sources.
        grecy 2y ago
        The UK has been burning coal since 1882, and their last coal fired power plant just got it's last delivery of coal [1] Germany is shutting down it's nukes [2] Actually, lots of countries are very quickly increasing how much of their energy needs come from green sources [3] You can't deny reality [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro [2] https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-phase-out_node.html https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-pha... [3] https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-charge-on-renewable-energy/ https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-c...
        cubefox 2y ago
        Solar and wind energy are impossible without stable energy sources like coal or fission. Solar and wind energy are highly volatile, and battery energy storage is far too expensive.
        grecy 2y ago
        You already said that, and you're ignoring the fact that many countries are switching from coal and nuclear to renewables, thanks in part to the rapidly falling prices.
        fragmede 2y ago
        just today, the UK had its last coal delivery to a power plant. after that, it's closing and the UK will no longer be using coal at all. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro
        cubefox 2y ago
        This is irrelevant to what we were discussing originally. Neither the UK nor any other country does have battery storage of the size of major power plants. Those are required to provide stable energy. Otherwise the power would go out during calm or in the night.

by grecy 2y ago

cubefox 2y ago

If you look at the beginning of the chart, the price decrease (from $780 to $258 in 2017) over the same four year period was 67%. And for 2023 it was only 24%. So progress has slowed a lot. In 2022 there was even a year-over-year price increase. That's bad news when you want to build massive energy storage systems that can replace power plants.

grecy 2y ago
So what you're trying to say is - "In the past prices fell extremely fast, now they're falling just regular fast".
- cubefox 2y ago
  I'm saying that prices are falling increasingly more slowly and that using solar+batteries to replace coal, gas and fission power plants will probably not happen.
  - grecy 2y ago
    > using solar+batteries to replace coal, gas and fission power plants will probably not happen That ship already sailed, many countries are already doing it.
    - cubefox 2y ago
      No, no country is doing it because batteries are far too expensive to replace stable energy sources.
      - grecy 2y ago
        The UK has been burning coal since 1882, and their last coal fired power plant just got it's last delivery of coal [1] Germany is shutting down it's nukes [2] Actually, lots of countries are very quickly increasing how much of their energy needs come from green sources [3] You can't deny reality [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro [2] https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-phase-out_node.html https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-pha... [3] https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-charge-on-renewable-energy/ https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-c...
        cubefox 2y ago
        Solar and wind energy are impossible without stable energy sources like coal or fission. Solar and wind energy are highly volatile, and battery energy storage is far too expensive.
        grecy 2y ago
        You already said that, and you're ignoring the fact that many countries are switching from coal and nuclear to renewables, thanks in part to the rapidly falling prices.
        fragmede 2y ago
        just today, the UK had its last coal delivery to a power plant. after that, it's closing and the UK will no longer be using coal at all. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro
        cubefox 2y ago
        This is irrelevant to what we were discussing originally. Neither the UK nor any other country does have battery storage of the size of major power plants. Those are required to provide stable energy. Otherwise the power would go out during calm or in the night.