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> Given how rapidly the price of batteries and solar are falling Battery prices are pretty stable, which is huge problem for wind and solar energy.

olddustytrail 2y ago
That's just so bizarrely wrong I don't even know where it came from. The price of batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades: https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline
- cubefox 2y ago
  This article is outdated. The price has been relatively stable in the last ~4 years: https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/fig1battery.png https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/fig1battery.pn... Prices are decreasing much slower now. At this pace, large scale energy storage for replacing stable energy sources like coal and fission power plants is far out of reach.
  - grecy 2y ago
    > The price has been relatively stable in the last ~4 years Your linked source shows the price in the last 4 years going from cell: $128->$107 Pack: $55->$32 Real: $183->$139 So the price has dropped 25% in the last 4 years. That is NOT relatively stable by any definition.
    - cubefox 2y ago
      If you look at the beginning of the chart, the price decrease (from $780 to $258 in 2017) over the same four year period was 67%. And for 2023 it was only 24%. So progress has slowed a lot. In 2022 there was even a year-over-year price increase. That's bad news when you want to build massive energy storage systems that can replace power plants.
      - grecy 2y ago
        So what you're trying to say is - "In the past prices fell extremely fast, now they're falling just regular fast".
        cubefox 2y ago
        I'm saying that prices are falling increasingly more slowly and that using solar+batteries to replace coal, gas and fission power plants will probably not happen.
        grecy 2y ago
        > using solar+batteries to replace coal, gas and fission power plants will probably not happen That ship already sailed, many countries are already doing it.
        cubefox 2y ago
        No, no country is doing it because batteries are far too expensive to replace stable energy sources.
        grecy 2y ago
        The UK has been burning coal since 1882, and their last coal fired power plant just got it's last delivery of coal [1] Germany is shutting down it's nukes [2] Actually, lots of countries are very quickly increasing how much of their energy needs come from green sources [3] You can't deny reality [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro [2] https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-phase-out_node.html https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-pha... [3] https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-charge-on-renewable-energy/ https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-c...
        cubefox 2y ago

olddustytrail 2y ago

That's just so bizarrely wrong I don't even know where it came from. The price of batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades: https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline

cubefox 2y ago
This article is outdated. The price has been relatively stable in the last ~4 years: https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/fig1battery.png https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/fig1battery.pn... Prices are decreasing much slower now. At this pace, large scale energy storage for replacing stable energy sources like coal and fission power plants is far out of reach.
- grecy 2y ago
  > The price has been relatively stable in the last ~4 years Your linked source shows the price in the last 4 years going from cell: $128->$107 Pack: $55->$32 Real: $183->$139 So the price has dropped 25% in the last 4 years. That is NOT relatively stable by any definition.
  - cubefox 2y ago
    If you look at the beginning of the chart, the price decrease (from $780 to $258 in 2017) over the same four year period was 67%. And for 2023 it was only 24%. So progress has slowed a lot. In 2022 there was even a year-over-year price increase. That's bad news when you want to build massive energy storage systems that can replace power plants.
    - grecy 2y ago
      So what you're trying to say is - "In the past prices fell extremely fast, now they're falling just regular fast".
      - cubefox 2y ago
        I'm saying that prices are falling increasingly more slowly and that using solar+batteries to replace coal, gas and fission power plants will probably not happen.
        grecy 2y ago
        > using solar+batteries to replace coal, gas and fission power plants will probably not happen That ship already sailed, many countries are already doing it.
        cubefox 2y ago
        No, no country is doing it because batteries are far too expensive to replace stable energy sources.
        grecy 2y ago
        The UK has been burning coal since 1882, and their last coal fired power plant just got it's last delivery of coal [1] Germany is shutting down it's nukes [2] Actually, lots of countries are very quickly increasing how much of their energy needs come from green sources [3] You can't deny reality [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckkg0wl7dkro [2] https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-phase-out_node.html https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-pha... [3] https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-charge-on-renewable-energy/ https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-c...
        cubefox 2y ago