3 ms·

20 years from now. And the same answer after 20 years.

peutetre 2y ago
No, there are multiple projects and companies that are making good progress toward commercially practical fusion reactors. Helion Energy has a contract to deliver Microsoft a fusion reactor by 2028. It's only four years away so we don't need to speculate about it. Helion will either deliver or they won't: https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nuclear-fusion-company-helion-2023-05-10/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nucle... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDXXWQxK38 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDXXWQxK38 https://www.helionenergy.com/ https://www.helionenergy.com/ MIT's Commonwealth Fusion Systems has started construction of their small scale SPARC reactor. Once that has proven itself they will build a larger scale ARC reactor. They should get to first plasma in 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3Giq6NuPYs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3Giq6NuPYs https://energy.mit.edu/news/mit-designed-project-achieves-major-advance-toward-fusion-energy/ https://energy.mit.edu/news/mit-designed-project-achieves-ma... https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/23/1090425/mits-superconducting-magnets-are-ready-for-fusion/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/23/1090425/mits-sup... https://cfs.energy/ https://cfs.energy/
- Dr4kn 2y ago
  No one can generate enough energy with fusion at the moment. Even if Helion could do it today they would need to build a larger reactor and test that too. Then build the one for Microsoft. To do all of this in 4 years is pretty much impossible
  - peutetre 2y ago
    Helion's reactors are smaller and simpler field reversed configuration reactors. They've built multiple prototypes over the last 11 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy#Development_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy#Development_hist... The prototype currently under construction is Polaris. It's 25% larger than the previous prototype and they expect it to achieve net electricity production: https://www.helionenergy.com/polaris/ https://www.helionenergy.com/polaris/
- grecy 2y ago
  China are currently building 27 fission reactors, and the construction time is 7 years. If it takes 7 years to build something that is known and has been done a couple of hundred times before, I think it's safe to say it will take more than 4 years to build something of similar complexity that has never been done before.
  - peutetre 2y ago
    Helion's reactors are smaller and simpler. They've already built 6 prototypes across the last 11 years. They're building the seventh prototype now.
CuriousCosmic 2y ago
The only reason the answer is always 20 years from now is because governments have withdrawn funding to such an absurd degree that projects have to take long, well measured risks otherwise they lose their funding versus rapid iteration of projects with high risks of failure (and high costs). This is ultimately a capital game and without enough capital researchers and engineers have to go with the safest bets lest they lose funding. So you get ITER which will almost certainly work but has taken forever to build because it's a gargantuan feat of overengineering in all the ways that matter to make sure it works. And for what it's worth, ITER's new baseline schedule will be announced this upcoming Wednesday (July 3). Likely first plasma will be in the next 2 or 3 years with first fusion operation some time between 2035 and 2040.
- BirAdam 2y ago
  Or it’s always in the future because people are trying to do with an accelerator what normally takes the mass of a star to do. Whether or not it’s even possible is up for debate.
  - CuriousCosmic 2y ago
    It's really not. Inertial Confinement Fusion tests have already produced energy positive results quite a few times. The most recent ICF tests that made the rounds were notable because they were consistently repeatable. i.e. we know a well defined lower bound on the conditions required for energy positive fusion. These bounds are more or less what we expected so sustainable energy positive fusion is essentially guaranteed to be feasible, it's just ungodly expensive until we can learn how to reduce the lower bounds for fusion or improve our ability to achieve those conditions. So ITER will work. There really isn't a discussion on whether ITER will work or not. Like technically there's a small fraction of a percent chance it won't work for a number or reasons but even then it's less likely to be "it will never work" and more "we need to make changes and it'll work eventually". This is actually part of the reason for the updated baseline schedule. It's apparently going to be far more aggressive now that there are better assurances that the existing model is in line with experimental evidence.

No, there are multiple projects and companies that are making good progress toward commercially practical fusion reactors. Helion Energy has a contract to deliver Microsoft a fusion reactor by 2028. It's only four years away so we don't need to speculate about it. Helion will either deliver or they won't: https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nuclear-fusion-company-helion-2023-05-10/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nucle... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDXXWQxK38 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDXXWQxK38 https://www.helionenergy.com/ https://www.helionenergy.com/ MIT's Commonwealth Fusion Systems has started construction of their small scale SPARC reactor. Once that has proven itself they will build a larger scale ARC reactor. They should get to first plasma in 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3Giq6NuPYs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3Giq6NuPYs https://energy.mit.edu/news/mit-designed-project-achieves-major-advance-toward-fusion-energy/ https://energy.mit.edu/news/mit-designed-project-achieves-ma... https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/23/1090425/mits-superconducting-magnets-are-ready-for-fusion/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/23/1090425/mits-sup... https://cfs.energy/ https://cfs.energy/

Dr4kn 2y ago
No one can generate enough energy with fusion at the moment. Even if Helion could do it today they would need to build a larger reactor and test that too. Then build the one for Microsoft. To do all of this in 4 years is pretty much impossible
- peutetre 2y ago
  Helion's reactors are smaller and simpler field reversed configuration reactors. They've built multiple prototypes over the last 11 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy#Development_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy#Development_hist... The prototype currently under construction is Polaris. It's 25% larger than the previous prototype and they expect it to achieve net electricity production: https://www.helionenergy.com/polaris/ https://www.helionenergy.com/polaris/
grecy 2y ago
China are currently building 27 fission reactors, and the construction time is 7 years. If it takes 7 years to build something that is known and has been done a couple of hundred times before, I think it's safe to say it will take more than 4 years to build something of similar complexity that has never been done before.
- peutetre 2y ago
  Helion's reactors are smaller and simpler. They've already built 6 prototypes across the last 11 years. They're building the seventh prototype now.

CuriousCosmic 2y ago

The only reason the answer is always 20 years from now is because governments have withdrawn funding to such an absurd degree that projects have to take long, well measured risks otherwise they lose their funding versus rapid iteration of projects with high risks of failure (and high costs). This is ultimately a capital game and without enough capital researchers and engineers have to go with the safest bets lest they lose funding. So you get ITER which will almost certainly work but has taken forever to build because it's a gargantuan feat of overengineering in all the ways that matter to make sure it works. And for what it's worth, ITER's new baseline schedule will be announced this upcoming Wednesday (July 3). Likely first plasma will be in the next 2 or 3 years with first fusion operation some time between 2035 and 2040.

BirAdam 2y ago
Or it’s always in the future because people are trying to do with an accelerator what normally takes the mass of a star to do. Whether or not it’s even possible is up for debate.
- CuriousCosmic 2y ago
  It's really not. Inertial Confinement Fusion tests have already produced energy positive results quite a few times. The most recent ICF tests that made the rounds were notable because they were consistently repeatable. i.e. we know a well defined lower bound on the conditions required for energy positive fusion. These bounds are more or less what we expected so sustainable energy positive fusion is essentially guaranteed to be feasible, it's just ungodly expensive until we can learn how to reduce the lower bounds for fusion or improve our ability to achieve those conditions. So ITER will work. There really isn't a discussion on whether ITER will work or not. Like technically there's a small fraction of a percent chance it won't work for a number or reasons but even then it's less likely to be "it will never work" and more "we need to make changes and it'll work eventually". This is actually part of the reason for the updated baseline schedule. It's apparently going to be far more aggressive now that there are better assurances that the existing model is in line with experimental evidence.