The problem is it's not black and white what the long term outcome will be. A cancer diagnosis that was terminal 20 years ago could mean in 20 years you'll die

The problem is it's not black and white what the long term outcome will be. A cancer diagnosis that was terminal 20 years ago could mean in 20 years you'll die of a heart attack with a short period of horrible treatment. It gets even more dicey when you start talking about things like "well, the 20% chance is you'll survive this. The 80% chance is you'll die". Almost everyone is going to want to roll the 1/5 chance of living rather than taking the "you do nothing and you die" path, even if the 1/5 path is horribly terrible.