4 ms·
I figure we could get a Falcon Heavy filled with rocks or something launched in a hurry. But, I did the math, and like you say, all we could do is watch. Assum
by prewett 2y ago
I figure we could get a Falcon Heavy filled with rocks or something launched in a hurry. But, I did the math, and like you say, all we could do is watch.
Assuming the standard asteroid density of 2000 kg/m^3 [1], a 260 m diameter asteroid has a volume of 4/3 * pi * 130^3 = 1.84e10 m^3. Falcon Heavy can lift 16818 kg to a transfer orbit to Mars [2], which I assume is basically what it can do to reach an asteroid coming at us. A normal speed of space probes (without gravity assists) seems to be about 25,000 mph = 11600 m/s. Thus, it has a momentum of about 1.95e8 kg*m/s.
Assuming we hit the asteroid perpendicular to its motion, transferring all our momentum into transverse velocity, that is 1.95e8 / 1.84e10, or approximately 0.01 m/s. To ensure a miss, it would need to travel the whole diameter of the earth, 6.378e6 m, which would take 6.378e8 seconds, or about 20.2 years, which is the amount of time before impact we would need to hit the asteroid.
We would probably have more success hitting it head on. Since the earth is moving at about 3e4 m/s, we only need to delay the asteroid by 213 seconds. The minimum speed of an asteroid impacting Earth is 1.1e4 m/s, so we would need to move it backwards 2.343e6 m. This allows us to hit it slightly later, only 7.3 years ahead of time (in the best-case scenario). Assuming it could vary by a factor of two, we would need up to about a 14 year lead time.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_asteroid_physical_characteristics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_asteroid_physical_cha...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event
- alkyon 2y agoI haven't done any calculations but wouldn't they use nuclear warheads to deflect it?
- dylan604 2y agoMaybe if this was a Michael Bay movie, but real scientists know that an Earth ending level event would just laugh at your nukes as it just flew on by. In the grand scheme of the cosmos, man made nukes are but a mere gnat at the picnic nuisance.
- throwawaymaths 2y agoThis particular asteroid is the size of a jet plane, so a nuke would probably have an effect.
- alkyon 2y agoIf it isn't the Moon but an asteroid of 100m radius then deflecting or breaking it apart is feasible. https://www.llnl.gov/article/50716/new-nuclear-deflection-simulations-advance-planetary-defense-against-asteroid-threats https://www.llnl.gov/article/50716/new-nuclear-deflection-si...
- kurthr 2y agoTo estimate this order of magnitude. A typical (non MERV) 1.2Mt B83 in the active US nuclear arsenal would likely vaporize ~100m diameter hemisphere to deflect a relatively large 3km asteroid. Assuming an asteroid at 1-10 km/sec relative velocity 12 days out is 1-10M km away and earth is ~10k km across. So a deflection angle of ~1-10mrad is needed for a 3km (~10km3) spherical asteroid mass of ~10^13kg. A 5E15 J/Mt 1000kg bomb with a half momentum of about 10^9 kgkm/sec could deflect an angle of 0.1mrad 12 days out. Half energy conservation would gives you a similar ~0.01km/sec dV, so you'd need >10x more time or >10x more 1Mt nukes for a 3km asteroid. It gets much worse for larger asteroids, but interestingly dV doesn't change quickly with relative velocity since the required angle falls as the velocity rises.