> But most of the current production is still lithium based for now and it will take time for that to change. I wager differently. I see no reason why sodium-

> But most of the current production is still lithium based for now and it will take time for that to change. I wager differently. I see no reason why sodium-ion batteries couldn't leapfrog lithium, just based on simplicity and economy. I suspect the learning rate will be much quicker for sodium ion. > Most car batteries don't get drained on a daily basis. It's more like once a week or two weeks for average drivers. Same with grid batteries. That's only because grid batteries aren't really being used to offset peakers. They are basically arbitrage for when prices are very high, as lithium batteries can hold charge for a very long time and can be dispatched almost instantly. In terms of batteries being used in place of gas and coal stations, they will need to cycle deeper, but maybe after about 6-12 hours of capacity is reached, they won't have to. That said, the graph I provided is global capacity. Right now, batteries are still a specialty item, but for broader applicability, they'll be needed in more diverse scenario, including where there could be large gaps in renewables output. But even anywhere, an emergency capacity of days would become necessary in order to divest fully from non-renewables as both baseload and peakers (e.g., when overcast, still, and very cold/hot temperatures, or powerlines failing etc.) > As for the IEA, take their numbers with a grain of salt. [...] Generally, you can subtract at least a few years from most of their predictions. My projections were based on historical data, and regressing exponential curves onto them. Not super scientific, but the exponential trends are very visible for solar, wind, and storage. The linear trend for energy consumption seems to be holding now for decades, but that could also change. > Apparently we can look forward to over production and price drops next year already. I've already seen the prices drop ~40% from August last year to January on prismatic LiFePo4. I bought twice as many cells for just a little extra. I expect to buy again next year and double my capacity for about the same as my first purchase. We'll see.