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> Batteries are now being produced at a rate measured in TWH per year I don't disagree with you, but I think specifically lithium batteries for storage is goin

> Batteries are now being produced at a rate measured in TWH per year I don't disagree with you, but I think specifically lithium batteries for storage is going to be a small part of the picture as we move towards having larger capacity. Sodium ion batteries in particular remove the resource bottlenecks that still hold back battery storage. That said, yearly additions to grid-scale battery storage (of any type) is basically doubling every year. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-grid-scale-battery-storage-additions-2017-2022 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-grid-s... https://www.iea.org/reports/batteries-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/batteries-and-secure-energy-tran... To the point, that by some very basic projections I made, it looks like there will be more battery capacity than daily solar generation by 2034, and then more capacity than daily usage less than a year later. https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lunahw7gvo https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lunahw7gvo

jillesvangurp 2y ago
Especially for grid storage sodium ion is looking very promising. As are several other chemistries. But most of the current production is still lithium based for now and it will take time for that to change. I would say non lithium storage might become dominant from the mid 2030s and onward. As for battery capacity. There will indeed be way more batteries than energy generation. But that's only a problem if you assume all those batteries are being cycled to capacity continuously. IMHO that's actually not the case. Most car batteries don't get drained on a daily basis. It's more like once a week or two weeks for average drivers. Same with grid batteries. They are used more intensively of course but also oversized so they don't constantly run out. My point was that most batteries are, on average, holding a charge that's probably close to fully charged (or 80%, which is more optimal for some battery chemistries) and that only fraction of that aggregate capacity is discharged and recharged on a daily basis. Having that much batteries is really good news. IMHO it's a trend that will accelerate as batteries continue to get cheaper. We'll just buy more of them and find more places where it's nice to have them. Think of an e.g. AC units with a battery that can charge during the day and discharge in the evening. As for the IEA, take their numbers with a grain of salt. They are notorious for having to correct their own predictions regularly. And there are some well known issues with their modeling and assumptions. Generally, you can subtract at least a few years from most of their predictions. I'd recommend reading some of the reports by Bloomberg NEF they've had a few interesting reports on investments for battery production. Apparently we can look forward to over production and price drops next year already.
- h0l0cube 2y ago
  > But most of the current production is still lithium based for now and it will take time for that to change. I wager differently. I see no reason why sodium-ion batteries couldn't leapfrog lithium, just based on simplicity and economy. I suspect the learning rate will be much quicker for sodium ion. > Most car batteries don't get drained on a daily basis. It's more like once a week or two weeks for average drivers. Same with grid batteries. That's only because grid batteries aren't really being used to offset peakers. They are basically arbitrage for when prices are very high, as lithium batteries can hold charge for a very long time and can be dispatched almost instantly. In terms of batteries being used in place of gas and coal stations, they will need to cycle deeper, but maybe after about 6-12 hours of capacity is reached, they won't have to. That said, the graph I provided is global capacity. Right now, batteries are still a specialty item, but for broader applicability, they'll be needed in more diverse scenario, including where there could be large gaps in renewables output. But even anywhere, an emergency capacity of days would become necessary in order to divest fully from non-renewables as both baseload and peakers (e.g., when overcast, still, and very cold/hot temperatures, or powerlines failing etc.) > As for the IEA, take their numbers with a grain of salt. [...] Generally, you can subtract at least a few years from most of their predictions. My projections were based on historical data, and regressing exponential curves onto them. Not super scientific, but the exponential trends are very visible for solar, wind, and storage. The linear trend for energy consumption seems to be holding now for decades, but that could also change. > Apparently we can look forward to over production and price drops next year already. I've already seen the prices drop ~40% from August last year to January on prismatic LiFePo4. I bought twice as many cells for just a little extra. I expect to buy again next year and double my capacity for about the same as my first purchase. We'll see.

jillesvangurp 2y ago

Especially for grid storage sodium ion is looking very promising. As are several other chemistries. But most of the current production is still lithium based for now and it will take time for that to change. I would say non lithium storage might become dominant from the mid 2030s and onward. As for battery capacity. There will indeed be way more batteries than energy generation. But that's only a problem if you assume all those batteries are being cycled to capacity continuously. IMHO that's actually not the case. Most car batteries don't get drained on a daily basis. It's more like once a week or two weeks for average drivers. Same with grid batteries. They are used more intensively of course but also oversized so they don't constantly run out. My point was that most batteries are, on average, holding a charge that's probably close to fully charged (or 80%, which is more optimal for some battery chemistries) and that only fraction of that aggregate capacity is discharged and recharged on a daily basis. Having that much batteries is really good news. IMHO it's a trend that will accelerate as batteries continue to get cheaper. We'll just buy more of them and find more places where it's nice to have them. Think of an e.g. AC units with a battery that can charge during the day and discharge in the evening. As for the IEA, take their numbers with a grain of salt. They are notorious for having to correct their own predictions regularly. And there are some well known issues with their modeling and assumptions. Generally, you can subtract at least a few years from most of their predictions. I'd recommend reading some of the reports by Bloomberg NEF they've had a few interesting reports on investments for battery production. Apparently we can look forward to over production and price drops next year already.

h0l0cube 2y ago
> But most of the current production is still lithium based for now and it will take time for that to change. I wager differently. I see no reason why sodium-ion batteries couldn't leapfrog lithium, just based on simplicity and economy. I suspect the learning rate will be much quicker for sodium ion. > Most car batteries don't get drained on a daily basis. It's more like once a week or two weeks for average drivers. Same with grid batteries. That's only because grid batteries aren't really being used to offset peakers. They are basically arbitrage for when prices are very high, as lithium batteries can hold charge for a very long time and can be dispatched almost instantly. In terms of batteries being used in place of gas and coal stations, they will need to cycle deeper, but maybe after about 6-12 hours of capacity is reached, they won't have to. That said, the graph I provided is global capacity. Right now, batteries are still a specialty item, but for broader applicability, they'll be needed in more diverse scenario, including where there could be large gaps in renewables output. But even anywhere, an emergency capacity of days would become necessary in order to divest fully from non-renewables as both baseload and peakers (e.g., when overcast, still, and very cold/hot temperatures, or powerlines failing etc.) > As for the IEA, take their numbers with a grain of salt. [...] Generally, you can subtract at least a few years from most of their predictions. My projections were based on historical data, and regressing exponential curves onto them. Not super scientific, but the exponential trends are very visible for solar, wind, and storage. The linear trend for energy consumption seems to be holding now for decades, but that could also change. > Apparently we can look forward to over production and price drops next year already. I've already seen the prices drop ~40% from August last year to January on prismatic LiFePo4. I bought twice as many cells for just a little extra. I expect to buy again next year and double my capacity for about the same as my first purchase. We'll see.