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> Yet another example of people blaming chaos This isn't how this works, at all. We are talking about large scale systems on long timelines that have massive
by zer00eyz 2y ago
> Yet another example of people blaming chaos
This isn't how this works, at all.
We are talking about large scale systems on long timelines that have massive momentum and energy. Predicting something 18 months out isn't hard (Florida will have a hurricane in the next 18 months).
Predicting "will crops get enough water in the mid west in any given year" is impossible because of "chaos" because of complexity.
This result is not surprising to any one who pays attention to how the math for these systems works.
- ummonk 2y agoPrecisely the point. Chaos wasn't impactful on the relevant timescale for large scale dynamics like El Nino, and shouldn't be blamed for our previous inability to predict beyond 12 months.