8 ms·

I know it's leasing, not owning. Given current track record, a minimally maintained 2025 Toyota Camry will probably outlast Musk. Also, a Camry is substantially

by aynyc 2y ago

I know it's leasing, not owning. Given current track record, a minimally maintained 2025 Toyota Camry will probably outlast Musk. Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair. My local mechanics can probably rebuild a Camry in their sleep with parts readily available.

leetharris 2y ago
> Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair. Long, long term this should work out in the favor of EVs. They have way less parts and are mechanically much simpler. Right now, however, the market saturation, second hand parts market, repair shop density, etc means it's way more expensive to get an EV fixed. I do wonder when this will flip. Maybe sometime around 2035?
- jvanderbot 2y ago
  Well, the reduced business case for EV maintenance might actually mean it's harder to get / more specialized? I don't know - markets are weird.
- jerf 2y ago
  [removed]
  - cevn 2y ago
    My Model3 is 6 years now, and has lost about 10% range. The car doesn't suddenly become useless either. I expect to keep the same car + battery for at least 20 years without replacing it.
  - rconti 2y ago
    > 2 or 3 battery replacements would be a reasonable guess in that time frame. It absolutely would not. "0 battery replacements" is the correct number in 9 years.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    > 2 or 3 battery replacements would be a reasonable guess in that time frame There are reports of people getting > 600,000 miles out of a Tesla battery. The only vehicle where you're likely to need regular battery replacements on is the Nissan Leaf or it's sister the Renault Zoe.
  - jillesvangurp 2y ago
    If this were true it would be bad. Luckily it's mostly myth and rumor that doesn't actually line up with reality. The reason leasing cost is so low is that these vehicles and their batteries tend to be decent shape at the end of the lease and still have a good resell value. And they don't cause any issues in between. With modern vehicles, the battery can actually be expected to outlast the vehicle. Many EVs sold 10 years ago still have their original batteries. They are fine and really good value if you can get a second hand one. Battery replacements have mostly proven a myth for EVs. Of course they sometimes happen, especially with older vehicles with primitive battery management (e.g. no cooling). But most EVs ever sold still drive around with their original batteries. Modern battery chemistries are actually even more durable. 3000 charging cycles is pretty standard these days. With a 300 mile range, that's 900000 miles. Most ICE cars don't make it half way that before ending up in the scrap yard. And that's usually after years of expensive repairs, inefficiently running engines, and going through lots of replacement parts. 3000 cycles is just the threshold where you can reasonably expect the battery to still hold > 80% of it's charge. It's not like it will stop working. Maybe 60% is still good enough. Some battery chemistries do way better than 3000 cycles of course. There has been talk of million mile batteries for some years now.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
bilsbie 2y ago
I believe the Tesla has a longer warranty which could help With the repair cost difference. Plus no oil changes.
bryanlarsen 2y ago
The Tesla Model 3 beat the Camry on total cost of ownership even in 2020 when the Model 3 was was considerably more expensive to buy or lease, mostly due to its cheaper maintenance costs. A Camry has >10X as many moving parts as a Tesla. The Tesla's maintenance cost per moving part is higher than the Camry's, but it has such an advantage in terms of number of moving parts that it's maintenance costs are a lot lower.
- lm28469 2y ago
  > The Tesla Model 3 beat the Camry on total cost of ownership It's a 6 years old car (and most likely 4 or 5 years old given the delivery stats)... there are camrys from the last century still on the road with 500k+ miles on them. When a tesla passes 300k miles it's news worthy, not because of reliability, just because they haven't been around for long https://www.autoevolution.com/news/this-2018-tesla-model-3-passed-the-300000-mile-mark-here-s-what-you-need-to-know-194534.html https://www.autoevolution.com/news/this-2018-tesla-model-3-p...
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    At 6 years old you've already hit ~3/4 of the TCO of the vehicle.
ripjaygn 2y ago
> Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair. You have to do regular service on an ICE car and repair or replace things like the timing belt and hoses etc. Teslas have the cheapest 10 year maintenance costs according to Consumer Reports, beating out Toyota. https://insideevs.com/news/717341/tesla-cheapest-repair-maintenance-costs/ https://insideevs.com/news/717341/tesla-cheapest-repair-main...
- aynyc 2y ago
  I don't understand how they have 10 year TCO when 3 and Y are less than that. If they (Consumer Reports) extrapolate based on first 5 year data, then it's not correct.
rconti 2y ago
> Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair. I wouldn't say this is a given. We've had a handful of small issues in 100k miles on our early-production 3 that I doubt a Camry would have had, but parts have been surprisingly cheap ($89 for a 12v battery direct from Tesla SC was cheaper than I could get one at Autozone, for example). I doubt I'll ever replace brakes, I'll never have to replace a timing belt, and battery pack coolant is supposedly lifetime unlike the coolant on the Camry.
cevn 2y ago
I think the higher maintenance costs would be on the Camry due to more moving parts, but not sure. Maybe some data would be good.

by aynyc 2y ago

leetharris 2y ago

> Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair. Long, long term this should work out in the favor of EVs. They have way less parts and are mechanically much simpler. Right now, however, the market saturation, second hand parts market, repair shop density, etc means it's way more expensive to get an EV fixed. I do wonder when this will flip. Maybe sometime around 2035?

jvanderbot 2y ago
Well, the reduced business case for EV maintenance might actually mean it's harder to get / more specialized? I don't know - markets are weird.
jerf 2y ago
[removed]
- cevn 2y ago
  My Model3 is 6 years now, and has lost about 10% range. The car doesn't suddenly become useless either. I expect to keep the same car + battery for at least 20 years without replacing it.
- rconti 2y ago
  > 2 or 3 battery replacements would be a reasonable guess in that time frame. It absolutely would not. "0 battery replacements" is the correct number in 9 years.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  > 2 or 3 battery replacements would be a reasonable guess in that time frame There are reports of people getting > 600,000 miles out of a Tesla battery. The only vehicle where you're likely to need regular battery replacements on is the Nissan Leaf or it's sister the Renault Zoe.
- jillesvangurp 2y ago
  If this were true it would be bad. Luckily it's mostly myth and rumor that doesn't actually line up with reality. The reason leasing cost is so low is that these vehicles and their batteries tend to be decent shape at the end of the lease and still have a good resell value. And they don't cause any issues in between. With modern vehicles, the battery can actually be expected to outlast the vehicle. Many EVs sold 10 years ago still have their original batteries. They are fine and really good value if you can get a second hand one. Battery replacements have mostly proven a myth for EVs. Of course they sometimes happen, especially with older vehicles with primitive battery management (e.g. no cooling). But most EVs ever sold still drive around with their original batteries. Modern battery chemistries are actually even more durable. 3000 charging cycles is pretty standard these days. With a 300 mile range, that's 900000 miles. Most ICE cars don't make it half way that before ending up in the scrap yard. And that's usually after years of expensive repairs, inefficiently running engines, and going through lots of replacement parts. 3000 cycles is just the threshold where you can reasonably expect the battery to still hold > 80% of it's charge. It's not like it will stop working. Maybe 60% is still good enough. Some battery chemistries do way better than 3000 cycles of course. There has been talk of million mile batteries for some years now.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

bilsbie 2y ago

I believe the Tesla has a longer warranty which could help With the repair cost difference. Plus no oil changes.

bryanlarsen 2y ago

The Tesla Model 3 beat the Camry on total cost of ownership even in 2020 when the Model 3 was was considerably more expensive to buy or lease, mostly due to its cheaper maintenance costs. A Camry has >10X as many moving parts as a Tesla. The Tesla's maintenance cost per moving part is higher than the Camry's, but it has such an advantage in terms of number of moving parts that it's maintenance costs are a lot lower.

lm28469 2y ago
> The Tesla Model 3 beat the Camry on total cost of ownership It's a 6 years old car (and most likely 4 or 5 years old given the delivery stats)... there are camrys from the last century still on the road with 500k+ miles on them. When a tesla passes 300k miles it's news worthy, not because of reliability, just because they haven't been around for long https://www.autoevolution.com/news/this-2018-tesla-model-3-passed-the-300000-mile-mark-here-s-what-you-need-to-know-194534.html https://www.autoevolution.com/news/this-2018-tesla-model-3-p...
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  At 6 years old you've already hit ~3/4 of the TCO of the vehicle.

ripjaygn 2y ago

> Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair. You have to do regular service on an ICE car and repair or replace things like the timing belt and hoses etc. Teslas have the cheapest 10 year maintenance costs according to Consumer Reports, beating out Toyota. https://insideevs.com/news/717341/tesla-cheapest-repair-maintenance-costs/ https://insideevs.com/news/717341/tesla-cheapest-repair-main...

aynyc 2y ago
I don't understand how they have 10 year TCO when 3 and Y are less than that. If they (Consumer Reports) extrapolate based on first 5 year data, then it's not correct.

rconti 2y ago

> Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair. I wouldn't say this is a given. We've had a handful of small issues in 100k miles on our early-production 3 that I doubt a Camry would have had, but parts have been surprisingly cheap ($89 for a 12v battery direct from Tesla SC was cheaper than I could get one at Autozone, for example). I doubt I'll ever replace brakes, I'll never have to replace a timing belt, and battery pack coolant is supposedly lifetime unlike the coolant on the Camry.

cevn 2y ago

I think the higher maintenance costs would be on the Camry due to more moving parts, but not sure. Maybe some data would be good.