4 ms·

India's Modi to visit Moscow soon, Russian state media says

25 points by donutloop 2y ago

jmpman 2y ago
I don’t understand how the US doesn’t have India deeply in its sphere of influence. With both needing to counter China, and with the US multinationals fueling the Indian IT sector, the US should have plenty of leverage that they’re not taking advantage of
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > don’t understand how the US doesn’t have India deeply in its sphere of influence There is a generation of Indians who distrust America on account of Washington's Cold War-era support for Pakistan. (Our tepid support during the Sino-Indian War of 1962 didn't help [1].) That generation ages out over the next twenty-five years, which is why we're seeing things so haltingly progress. [1] https://www.thehindu.com/news/Nehru-sought-U.S.-help-during-1962-Indo-China-war-book/article60363018.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/Nehru-sought-U.S.-help-during-...
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    The India-US distrust angle is overstated. When my dad was South Block adjacent in the 90s, the IAF was already fairly US and Israeli heavy and was in the process of initiating deals with Lockheed for EWACS, Javelins, and potentially F-16s before the Nuclear sanctions. The Army was already using indigenous guns, ToTed Swedish artillery (that caused another corruption scandal), and rolling out domestically manufactured MBTs. After that, Israeli, Russian, and French companies were able to swoop in because of ToT and some bribery. Indian dealflow for greenfield Russian systems already ended by the mid-2010s due to delays, open questions about Russian weapon systems efficacies, and better ToT terms from American vendors like Lockheed Martin (eg. The F-21 project and partial F-16 ToT to Tata Aerospace almost a decade ago). The downing of a MiG-21 by Pakistani F-16s during the Pulwama Crisis in 2019 was the final nail in the Russian defense procurement coffin in India. India primarily keeps good relations with Russia to prevent Russia from becoming completely pro-China, as India's equivalent of the Atlantic Council points out - https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-india-factor-in-china-russia-ties https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-india-factor-in-c... This is the same story for Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and other Asian nations.
- seatac76 2y ago
  It will eventually, that’s where things are headed. India-Russia relationship has significantly dwindled, truth is there isn’t much commonality there. You can actually see the propaganda coming from the Russian side to sow distrust between US-India on a regular basis. India still has to maintain the Russia relationship because they are dependent on them for military spares, due to their own lack of investment in domestic industry. Also I think they don’t want Russia to become too close to China and have no other outlet because that would be a disaster for India, given India-China border relations. So these visits are just to maintain the illusion I feel. Long term India is more aligned with the Western bloc, like you mentioned OP. Examples of alignment can be found in multilateral places such as Artemis Accords, QUAD, etc. not to mention the shared China concerns and people to people relationships, hardly any people to people relationships exists between India and Russia.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > India-Russia relationship has significantly dwindled, truth is there isn’t much commonality there India burns coal and oil [1]. It mines 70% of its own coal [2], importing the remaining 30% from Indonesia (60% of imports) and, equally, South Africa, Australia and Russia (10% each) [3]. When it comes to oil, however, the ratios are reversed: 80% is imported [4], 40% of which comes from Russia [5]. Better yet, that oil is cheap [6]. That energy dependency undergirds the modern Indo-Russian relationship. Historically, it was weapons. But given the demonstrated inferiority of Russian weapons technology and their recent suzerainty to China, India's geopolitical rival on both its Chinese and Pakistani borders, that's increasingly just for show. (New Delhi has no influence over Russia becoming "too close to China.") [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_India#/media/File:Energy_consumption_India.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_India#/media/File:En... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_India#Consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_India#Consumption [3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1237506/coal-import-share-india-by-country/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1237506/coal-import-shar... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_India [5] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-makes-up-40-indian-oil-imports-dents-opecs-share-2023-10-20/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-makes-up-40-india... [6] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indias-may-oil-imports-russia-record-high-saudi-lowest-10-mth-2024-06-21/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indias-may-oil-i...
- jononor 2y ago
  I read some arguments that being friendly with Russia is a way for India to attempt countering China. Don't want Russias relations to be much better with China than with themselves.
TheLoafOfBread 2y ago
Is he going to ask for return of those T90S which were undergoing modernization in Russia and then were destroyed in Ukraine? https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2022/indian-army-t-90s-bhishma-tanks-possibly-fighting-in-ukraine-for-russian-army https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2022/in...

25 points by donutloop 2y ago

I don’t understand how the US doesn’t have India deeply in its sphere of influence. With both needing to counter China, and with the US multinationals fueling the Indian IT sector, the US should have plenty of leverage that they’re not taking advantage of

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> don’t understand how the US doesn’t have India deeply in its sphere of influence There is a generation of Indians who distrust America on account of Washington's Cold War-era support for Pakistan. (Our tepid support during the Sino-Indian War of 1962 didn't help [1].) That generation ages out over the next twenty-five years, which is why we're seeing things so haltingly progress. [1] https://www.thehindu.com/news/Nehru-sought-U.S.-help-during-1962-Indo-China-war-book/article60363018.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/Nehru-sought-U.S.-help-during-...
- alephnerd 2y ago
  The India-US distrust angle is overstated. When my dad was South Block adjacent in the 90s, the IAF was already fairly US and Israeli heavy and was in the process of initiating deals with Lockheed for EWACS, Javelins, and potentially F-16s before the Nuclear sanctions. The Army was already using indigenous guns, ToTed Swedish artillery (that caused another corruption scandal), and rolling out domestically manufactured MBTs. After that, Israeli, Russian, and French companies were able to swoop in because of ToT and some bribery. Indian dealflow for greenfield Russian systems already ended by the mid-2010s due to delays, open questions about Russian weapon systems efficacies, and better ToT terms from American vendors like Lockheed Martin (eg. The F-21 project and partial F-16 ToT to Tata Aerospace almost a decade ago). The downing of a MiG-21 by Pakistani F-16s during the Pulwama Crisis in 2019 was the final nail in the Russian defense procurement coffin in India. India primarily keeps good relations with Russia to prevent Russia from becoming completely pro-China, as India's equivalent of the Atlantic Council points out - https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-india-factor-in-china-russia-ties https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-india-factor-in-c... This is the same story for Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and other Asian nations.
seatac76 2y ago
It will eventually, that’s where things are headed. India-Russia relationship has significantly dwindled, truth is there isn’t much commonality there. You can actually see the propaganda coming from the Russian side to sow distrust between US-India on a regular basis. India still has to maintain the Russia relationship because they are dependent on them for military spares, due to their own lack of investment in domestic industry. Also I think they don’t want Russia to become too close to China and have no other outlet because that would be a disaster for India, given India-China border relations. So these visits are just to maintain the illusion I feel. Long term India is more aligned with the Western bloc, like you mentioned OP. Examples of alignment can be found in multilateral places such as Artemis Accords, QUAD, etc. not to mention the shared China concerns and people to people relationships, hardly any people to people relationships exists between India and Russia.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > India-Russia relationship has significantly dwindled, truth is there isn’t much commonality there India burns coal and oil [1]. It mines 70% of its own coal [2], importing the remaining 30% from Indonesia (60% of imports) and, equally, South Africa, Australia and Russia (10% each) [3]. When it comes to oil, however, the ratios are reversed: 80% is imported [4], 40% of which comes from Russia [5]. Better yet, that oil is cheap [6]. That energy dependency undergirds the modern Indo-Russian relationship. Historically, it was weapons. But given the demonstrated inferiority of Russian weapons technology and their recent suzerainty to China, India's geopolitical rival on both its Chinese and Pakistani borders, that's increasingly just for show. (New Delhi has no influence over Russia becoming "too close to China.") [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_India#/media/File:Energy_consumption_India.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_India#/media/File:En... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_India#Consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_India#Consumption [3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1237506/coal-import-share-india-by-country/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1237506/coal-import-shar... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_India [5] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-makes-up-40-indian-oil-imports-dents-opecs-share-2023-10-20/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-makes-up-40-india... [6] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indias-may-oil-imports-russia-record-high-saudi-lowest-10-mth-2024-06-21/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indias-may-oil-i...
jononor 2y ago
I read some arguments that being friendly with Russia is a way for India to attempt countering China. Don't want Russias relations to be much better with China than with themselves.

TheLoafOfBread 2y ago

Is he going to ask for return of those T90S which were undergoing modernization in Russia and then were destroyed in Ukraine? https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2022/indian-army-t-90s-bhishma-tanks-possibly-fighting-in-ukraine-for-russian-army https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2022/in...