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Not directly related to this specific story, but does anyone know of a survey looking at what kind of accuracy / bias we see in long-term predictions from resea
by abeppu 2y ago
Not directly related to this specific story, but does anyone know of a survey looking at what kind of accuracy / bias we see in long-term predictions from research? Predicting anything 25 years out is naturally challenging, but we also now have a long history of academics / think tanks / etc producing various long-term predictions. Of 25-year predictions made 25 years ago, how badly did most predictions do? Are there attributes of how the research is done which correlates to greater accuracy?
- dwighttk 2y agoI would say 0% save for a few cases where you blur your eyes and say “from a certain point of view…” you get a hit.
- xnx 2y agoThere's a pretty great chart from The Economist from just a few days ago how photovoltaics have blown past all predictions, repeatedly: https://www.reddit.com/r/solar/comments/1dknl7x/predictions_vs_reality_for_solar_energy_growth/ https://www.reddit.com/r/solar/comments/1dknl7x/predictions_...