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Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo should be worried is because once FSD hits that "crossing", a flick of a switch at Tesla and 3-8 million robo taxis could hit the market all at once. For comparison, Waymo has around 1,000 cars. It's cool what Waymo's doing, but as an actual FSD user it's plainly obvious "vision only" will work, which does not bode well for all the other car companies + waymo.

flippyhead 2y ago
Not to mention that Tesla's hardware costs are considerably less -- they're doing it with "just" a few cameras.
- ra7 2y ago
  Except they are not "doing it" as long as it requires driver supervision. They are doing something that's few levels below Waymo. Removing the driver is the whole problem domain, which Waymo has done years ago. There's a reason Tesla hasn't been able to remove the driver (or even let them take their eyes off). It's because the car has "just" a few cameras.
bryant 2y ago
Is it gonna be good enough for Tesla to own and insure-for liability?
claaams 2y ago
With Elon, these types of massive changes are always just a year or two away and somehow never come or are not delivered as promised. They're bullish because it makes the stock price go up.
anonymousab 2y ago
> a flick of a switch at Tesla and 3-8 million robo taxis could hit the market all at once Assuming this is a feature that car owners (and presumably, states/provinces/countries) have to opt into, what does the insurance and liabilities look like for this? I can't believe that Tesla wouldn't shove all of it onto the end car owner, even if (or rather, when) they take a sizeable cut.
SeanAnderson 2y ago
I think there's still significant regulatory hurdles to overcome before it's just a flick of the switch. I haven't ridden in a Tesla FSD. Have you ridden in a Waymo? It seems tough to compare where they're "at" without having experienced both. I also wonder how much Waymo will have improved in the next 1-3 years. This whole field seems like the sort of thing where improvements come more rapidly as more data is acquired and data is acquired more rapidly the more vehicles come online. I could easily see a situation where Waymo masters their process and expands to hundreds of thousands of vehicles in a short period of time. Also, while I think I do believe in the ability to do FSD well with just cameras, I wonder if there will be fringe safety benefits to using accompanying lidar that will end up winning over public perception. People seem very interested in the ability for cars to do driving more safely than humans. I feel like this conflicts, mildly, with the desire to do FSD with pure vision on the premise that humans do it with pure vision. It's a true premise, but I'm not sure it's especially marketable.
lima 2y ago
The problem is the long tail. Neural networks are not great at handling edge cases and it's not clear whether they will ever be.
torginus 2y ago
Why? Many Chinese EVs with self-driving features include Lidar and manage to undercut Tesla on price. Solid-state Lidar has become so affordable that most cars include multiple ones, with the spinny ones seemingly on the way out. Also assuming that Tesla will hold on to the mass-market self-driving monopoly for long is a bit of a stretch.
habosa 2y ago
It could be better than Waymo today and it wouldn't matter. As long as Elon runs that compant with his middle finger extended to regulators, they'll never be allowed to do what Waymo has done by being so careful. Look at Cruise. They had actual robotaxis on the streets of SF and were firmly in second place. Then they had a bad accident and covered it up. Now they're set back by years and billions of dollars. Now imagine Tesla's behavior ...
- im3w1l 2y ago
  There are cheating devices that simulate hands on the wheel. If FSD becomes good enough they could go from suicidal to popular. Regulators wouldn't be able to stop illegal aftermarket modifications for obvious reasons. I still think Waymo will win, but this is how I think a Tesla victory would look.
- rangestransform 2y ago
  the regulators deserve considerably worse than a middle finger https://teamster.org/2023/05/teamsters-halt-waymo-in-san-francisco/ https://teamster.org/2023/05/teamsters-halt-waymo-in-san-fra...

flippyhead 2y ago

Not to mention that Tesla's hardware costs are considerably less -- they're doing it with "just" a few cameras.

ra7 2y ago
Except they are not "doing it" as long as it requires driver supervision. They are doing something that's few levels below Waymo. Removing the driver is the whole problem domain, which Waymo has done years ago. There's a reason Tesla hasn't been able to remove the driver (or even let them take their eyes off). It's because the car has "just" a few cameras.

bryant 2y ago

Is it gonna be good enough for Tesla to own and insure-for liability?

claaams 2y ago

With Elon, these types of massive changes are always just a year or two away and somehow never come or are not delivered as promised. They're bullish because it makes the stock price go up.

anonymousab 2y ago

> a flick of a switch at Tesla and 3-8 million robo taxis could hit the market all at once Assuming this is a feature that car owners (and presumably, states/provinces/countries) have to opt into, what does the insurance and liabilities look like for this? I can't believe that Tesla wouldn't shove all of it onto the end car owner, even if (or rather, when) they take a sizeable cut.

SeanAnderson 2y ago

I think there's still significant regulatory hurdles to overcome before it's just a flick of the switch. I haven't ridden in a Tesla FSD. Have you ridden in a Waymo? It seems tough to compare where they're "at" without having experienced both. I also wonder how much Waymo will have improved in the next 1-3 years. This whole field seems like the sort of thing where improvements come more rapidly as more data is acquired and data is acquired more rapidly the more vehicles come online. I could easily see a situation where Waymo masters their process and expands to hundreds of thousands of vehicles in a short period of time. Also, while I think I do believe in the ability to do FSD well with just cameras, I wonder if there will be fringe safety benefits to using accompanying lidar that will end up winning over public perception. People seem very interested in the ability for cars to do driving more safely than humans. I feel like this conflicts, mildly, with the desire to do FSD with pure vision on the premise that humans do it with pure vision. It's a true premise, but I'm not sure it's especially marketable.

lima 2y ago

The problem is the long tail. Neural networks are not great at handling edge cases and it's not clear whether they will ever be.

torginus 2y ago

Why? Many Chinese EVs with self-driving features include Lidar and manage to undercut Tesla on price. Solid-state Lidar has become so affordable that most cars include multiple ones, with the spinny ones seemingly on the way out. Also assuming that Tesla will hold on to the mass-market self-driving monopoly for long is a bit of a stretch.

habosa 2y ago

It could be better than Waymo today and it wouldn't matter. As long as Elon runs that compant with his middle finger extended to regulators, they'll never be allowed to do what Waymo has done by being so careful. Look at Cruise. They had actual robotaxis on the streets of SF and were firmly in second place. Then they had a bad accident and covered it up. Now they're set back by years and billions of dollars. Now imagine Tesla's behavior ...

im3w1l 2y ago
There are cheating devices that simulate hands on the wheel. If FSD becomes good enough they could go from suicidal to popular. Regulators wouldn't be able to stop illegal aftermarket modifications for obvious reasons. I still think Waymo will win, but this is how I think a Tesla victory would look.
rangestransform 2y ago
the regulators deserve considerably worse than a middle finger https://teamster.org/2023/05/teamsters-halt-waymo-in-san-francisco/ https://teamster.org/2023/05/teamsters-halt-waymo-in-san-fra...