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HBO's risk now it two-fold: #1 Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, or (gasp) Google start outspending HBO on serial shows. The next show of the caliber of "Game of Thrones"
by AJ007 14y ago
HBO's risk now it two-fold:
#1 Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, or (gasp) Google start outspending HBO on serial shows. The next show of the caliber of "Game of Thrones" or "Sopranos" is not offered through HBO.
#2 Consumers fail to see why they should be paying for HBO, or even want it. You could say a #1 3-4 times, combined with a failure to produce a notable show for a while, would kill HBO's desirability as a brand.
What HBO's management is doing is managing for death. This is what you do when you have a company with a passing business model to keep it as profitable as possible for as long as possible. In some ways you could imagine HBO as a porn company 8 years ago that primarily produced DVDs. Their business is still profitable and glamorous, they are mostly ignoring the pirates, but their real enemy is right around the corner.
HBO still has the possibility of transitioning. People care about HBO, thus all these stories about it. What they've done is tell their competitors "come get us." (alternatively HBO could just be calling their bluff and has full plans ready to switch to a web/mobile version)
- tptacek 14y agoHBO is already facing down that risk from FX and AMC, two rival channels owned by different companies offering comparably high-quality shows on basic cable. My point isn't that this moots HBO's sensitivity to (say) Netflix doing the next Game of Thrones, but rather that it's unlikely HBO is going to move to preempt that. HBO does not appear to have reacted to Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Justified, or Sons of Anarchy as existential threats to their business. If Netflix is the threat that is going to motivate HBO to go direct to consumer, they're going to have to put their money and their execution where their mouth is first. I have my doubts that they're equipped to pull that off, because I think they have an adverse selection problem: for prestige reasons, the best content is going to hit HBO, then Showtime, then AMC, and so on down the line.
- waterlesscloud 14y agoTalent will go where they are given money and freedom, so it's quite possible for Netflix to compete with HBO etc if they provide enough money and enough freedom. Having said that, Netflix having 5 or 6 top-notch shows is no real threat to HBO, no more than AMC already having 3 or 4 top-notch shows is. As long as HBO has their handful of shows people want to see, they don't care if a few other distribution channels also have shows people want to see. It doesn't hurt them, not even a little. A case could be made that it even helps a bit in terms of raising the prestige of the medium. There's a definite sense right now that the real gems of Hollywood are on television rather than in the cinema. It's a golden age, of sorts. There are other factors as well, such as Mad Men sucking up AMC's money from other shows, that limit the threats the other networks can pose to them.
- gigawatt 14y agoCoincidentally (or maybe not), FX and AMC don't really offer streaming of their shows either. FX used to be great about it, but they've clamped down in the last year or so. AMC has always been uninterested.
- wmf 14y agoFX and AMC don't really offer streaming of their shows either Aren't all their shows available on iTunes, Amazon, etc.? I would also expect them to be included in TV Everywhere when that manages to fully roll out.
- AJ007 14y agoMad Men, Breaking Bad are. The new episodes are released right away. 4 seasons of Mad Men are on Netflix, 3 seasons of Breaking Bad are. I can't speak for FX and AMC's other shows.
- encoderer 14y agoHBO turned-down Mad Men. In the recent past Thrones, Veep and Girls have all debuted to critical acclaim and ratings success. Anecdotally, from what I've read, show runners love HBO. Anybody who thinks HBO is at risk either isn't paying attention to it, or just has tastes outside the mainstream. They have among best original content -- scripted shows, comedy specials, 'reality' shows, documentaries, and movies -- on television today. And have. For the last 15 years.