Note also that Gibson semi-predicted 2035 [0] and Ghost in the Shell also predicted 2029 [1] (maybe basing their number off of Kurzweil, I don't know). I think

Note also that Gibson semi-predicted 2035 [0] and Ghost in the Shell also predicted 2029 [1] (maybe basing their number off of Kurzweil, I don't know). I think there are many ways to get at a concrete prediction of 2029, or thereabouts, by noticing a halving of cost for the same compute and/or storage every 1.5 to 3 years. This is a sort of generalized Moore's law or, maybe, just Wright's law [2]. Do this calculation to get 2.3Pb of storage, the estimated storage size of the human brain, for under $5k and you get within the range of 2030, give or take a decade. $5k is my arbitrary cutoff price point as this puts it in the "home computer" category and is, in my opinion, the price point that set off the home computer revolution. [0] https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/10/william-gibson-peripheral-vision-time-travel-interview/ https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/10/william-gibson-per... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_in_the_Shell_(manga) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_in_the_Shell_(manga) [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects