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I'm not sure how true this is anymore. FSD has improved significantly this year that they're on their new NN architecture. It's worth remembering that Waymo re

I'm not sure how true this is anymore. FSD has improved significantly this year that they're on their new NN architecture. It's worth remembering that Waymo required their users to sign NDA's during beta, while the Tesla FSD beta was open to everyone with no NDA. So there was a lot more Tesla content being posted and going viral.

ra7 2y ago
Waymo hasn’t required an NDA for at least a couple of years now. They only had a waitlist for access, you could share anything you want publicly.
- diebeforei485 2y ago
  There were various stages of rollout. The earlier stages required an NDA, the later ones did not. Meanwhile Tesla hasn't required NDA's except for employees running internal builds.
  - ra7 2y ago
    Those NDAs ended a long time ago. Waymo has given close to 2 million rides since then. Everything’s out in the open.
    - diebeforei485 2y ago
      The NDA's ended when they were confident enough in their system that the good press would outweigh the bad. So essentially we're comparing footage from Waymo when it was at the end stages of its development to footage from Tesla at the early stages of its development.
      - ra7 2y ago
        We agree that Waymo's and Tesla's development stages are wildly different at this point.
        diebeforei485 2y ago
        I don't know if they're wildly different at this point. Sitting in the shotgun seat, comparing the latest FSD vs the latest Waymo, on the same pickup and dropoff in San Francisco, I couldn't tell much difference. On the one hand, Waymo definitely chooses slower, quieter roads, and weird pickup/dropoff points - which means it's a slower ride. On the other hand, most people don't have access to actually try FSD so they rely on videos which are typically older FSD versions and spliced to only show "highlights" instead of being a raw 20 minute ride footage video. I don't think we'll actually know until Tesla has an actual robotaxi product. When Cruise had one, most people who had tried both Cruise and Waymo said Waymo was better. That was my opinion as well.
        ra7 2y ago
        > Sitting in the shotgun seat, comparing the latest FSD vs the latest Waymo, on the same pickup and dropoff in San Francisco, I couldn't tell much difference. Well, except for the fact that one is doing it completely driverless. And it has to do that every single time without having the luxury of a driver to prevent accidents. Big difference in reliability, which makes them wildly different.
        diebeforei485 2y ago
        There were no interventions, so both of them were doing it completely driverless. We can't make an apples to apples comparison until Tesla also has a robotaxi product, but even then there will be questions around the role of remote operators.
        ra7 2y ago
        > There were no interventions, so both of them were doing it completely driverless. Well, no. A Tesla doesn't operate without a driver's supervision, so it can't be driverless. It did that particular drive without intervention, that's it. The stats [1] clearly show it's nowhere near capable of doing it without a driver in the seat. Community tracker puts them at 30 miles per disengagement. [1] https://www.teslafsdtracker.com https://www.teslafsdtracker.com
TulliusCicero 2y ago
I've heard "Autopilot/FSD has improved a lot recently" or "the next release is going to be a huge improvement" many times from Tesla superfans. And certainly there has been improvement, but it's still at a stage where it's making very basic mistakes in operating the car. It's not even at the point where the challenge is handling weird edge cases with construction or strange intersections, it's still struggling with not running into parked cars and walls. How many years do you think it should take a self-driving system to be able to handle those basic tasks in the general case? Because Tesla has been working on self-driving for almost a decade at this point, and they still seem to be barely past the starting line.
- diebeforei485 2y ago
  > it's still at a stage where it's making very basic mistakes in operating the car. > it's still struggling with not running into parked cars and walls Based on the phrasing of your sentences, I must ask which FSD version you are running, and if you can share footage. > Because Tesla has been working on self-driving for almost a decade at this point, and they still seem to be barely past the starting line. Waymo/Google has been working on this since 2009, which was itself based on a Stanford project (whose team was hired from Stanford to Google) that started in 2004. So that's either 15 or 20 years depending on how you count, and it doesn't include the much harder tasks of mass producing vehicles and making electric vehicles commercially viable.

ra7 2y ago

Waymo hasn’t required an NDA for at least a couple of years now. They only had a waitlist for access, you could share anything you want publicly.

diebeforei485 2y ago
There were various stages of rollout. The earlier stages required an NDA, the later ones did not. Meanwhile Tesla hasn't required NDA's except for employees running internal builds.
- ra7 2y ago
  Those NDAs ended a long time ago. Waymo has given close to 2 million rides since then. Everything’s out in the open.
  - diebeforei485 2y ago
    The NDA's ended when they were confident enough in their system that the good press would outweigh the bad. So essentially we're comparing footage from Waymo when it was at the end stages of its development to footage from Tesla at the early stages of its development.
    - ra7 2y ago
      We agree that Waymo's and Tesla's development stages are wildly different at this point.
      - diebeforei485 2y ago
        I don't know if they're wildly different at this point. Sitting in the shotgun seat, comparing the latest FSD vs the latest Waymo, on the same pickup and dropoff in San Francisco, I couldn't tell much difference. On the one hand, Waymo definitely chooses slower, quieter roads, and weird pickup/dropoff points - which means it's a slower ride. On the other hand, most people don't have access to actually try FSD so they rely on videos which are typically older FSD versions and spliced to only show "highlights" instead of being a raw 20 minute ride footage video. I don't think we'll actually know until Tesla has an actual robotaxi product. When Cruise had one, most people who had tried both Cruise and Waymo said Waymo was better. That was my opinion as well.
        ra7 2y ago
        > Sitting in the shotgun seat, comparing the latest FSD vs the latest Waymo, on the same pickup and dropoff in San Francisco, I couldn't tell much difference. Well, except for the fact that one is doing it completely driverless. And it has to do that every single time without having the luxury of a driver to prevent accidents. Big difference in reliability, which makes them wildly different.
        diebeforei485 2y ago
        There were no interventions, so both of them were doing it completely driverless. We can't make an apples to apples comparison until Tesla also has a robotaxi product, but even then there will be questions around the role of remote operators.
        ra7 2y ago
        > There were no interventions, so both of them were doing it completely driverless. Well, no. A Tesla doesn't operate without a driver's supervision, so it can't be driverless. It did that particular drive without intervention, that's it. The stats [1] clearly show it's nowhere near capable of doing it without a driver in the seat. Community tracker puts them at 30 miles per disengagement. [1] https://www.teslafsdtracker.com https://www.teslafsdtracker.com

TulliusCicero 2y ago

I've heard "Autopilot/FSD has improved a lot recently" or "the next release is going to be a huge improvement" many times from Tesla superfans. And certainly there has been improvement, but it's still at a stage where it's making very basic mistakes in operating the car. It's not even at the point where the challenge is handling weird edge cases with construction or strange intersections, it's still struggling with not running into parked cars and walls. How many years do you think it should take a self-driving system to be able to handle those basic tasks in the general case? Because Tesla has been working on self-driving for almost a decade at this point, and they still seem to be barely past the starting line.

diebeforei485 2y ago
> it's still at a stage where it's making very basic mistakes in operating the car. > it's still struggling with not running into parked cars and walls Based on the phrasing of your sentences, I must ask which FSD version you are running, and if you can share footage. > Because Tesla has been working on self-driving for almost a decade at this point, and they still seem to be barely past the starting line. Waymo/Google has been working on this since 2009, which was itself based on a Stanford project (whose team was hired from Stanford to Google) that started in 2004. So that's either 15 or 20 years depending on how you count, and it doesn't include the much harder tasks of mass producing vehicles and making electric vehicles commercially viable.