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as a Alphabet and Tesla shareholder, this is what is important. The rate of innovation at Tesla > Waymo The cost of building Tesla FSD = 1/100 * cost of build

as a Alphabet and Tesla shareholder, this is what is important. The rate of innovation at Tesla > Waymo The cost of building Tesla FSD = 1/100 * cost of building Waymo FSD The cost of delivering Tesla FSD = 1/10 * cost of delivering Waymo FSD Tesla has economies of scale. Waymo has all the details figured out. Waymo can never get to the scale of Tesla (it can never buy 5 Million FSD cars, while Tesla is delivering them every 2 years) Mathematically, Tesla has an upper hand over Waymo and it'll play out as that. Larry, Sergei are extremely poor capital allocators. Musk is brilliant (despite him being a narcisstic a*hole). Larry/Sergei left Waymo at a limbo state because they don't think in terms of economics, just coolness. Waymo is successful enough to not kill it, but also not a cash-flow positive to scale it up Edit : Tch, Tch expected HN anti-Musk hate showing up in downvotes.

jonny_eh 2y ago
> Larry/Sergei left Waymo at a limbo state because they don't think in terms of economics, just coolness. Larry/Sergei didn't create the Cybertruck
- zooq_ai 2y ago
  They wish they had
  - ddalex 2y ago
    Who wishes to have created the car that gets stuck when it rains?
    - zooq_ai 2y ago
      The kind of founders who knows the risk of launching products? The kind of founders who knows shipping > waiting-for-perfection?
      - ddalex 2y ago
        lmao auto founders that never heard of recalls :) move fast and break things may be ok for social networks, but never ok for endangering the safety of others to launch a 6th model of a marque, so well established, theoretically knowing a lot about cars, a model that dies when it gets wet, it's just embarrassing
        zooq_ai 2y ago
        https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/Tesla/model-3-4-door-sedan/2022 https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/Tesla/model-3-4-door-se...
Workaccount2 2y ago
Tesla doesn't even have a single autonomous vehicle yet... They have driving assist that people still measure in 'number of times I had to grab the wheel'.
shkkmo 2y ago
Tesla is still stuck at Level 3 while Waymo has been operating at level 4 for years. If Tesla does manag to jump straight from level 3 to level 5, they have a chance to compete, but that seems unlikely. They also might move to level 4 and be able to expand level 4 coverage faster, but that still remains to be seen. Waymo has years of experience with the other hard part of self driving taxis: actually picking up and dropping off people without a human driver. Anti-musk partisanship frustrates me, but I suspect it is your fan-boy talking points that drive the downvotes of your comment
- zooq_ai 2y ago
  A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole. Technology progress is non-linear. Yes, Tesla is at L3 and Waymo at L4. But, you completely missed the point of rate-of-innovation, which was why I made that as first point. My GOOG holdings are 4x than TSLA. But in terms of who will deliver FSD at better margins, it's hands down TSLA. It's simple Math and Elon's obsession about cutting material costs & process to it's barest minimum. Waymo has no such discipline or culture.
  - DannyBee 2y ago
    "A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole." FWIW - You definitely come off as as irrationally in favor of tesla, regardless of reason. Nobody missed any of your points, they just don't agree with most them or believe the rest follow from your points.
    - zooq_ai 2y ago
      https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffhD_dNzoM0 https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffhD_dNzoM0 Any driver that makes this kind of move is typically in the top 5%ile of driving skills. Yes, it's an asshole and slightly illegal move, but the level of intelligence that needs to be applied for this move is all you need to know about Tesla's advantages. I have been extremely critical of Musk's reliance on only cameras, but I'm impressed with the progress they have made because of the new architecture in 12.x series. Considering it'll be trained with 100x more compute, I'm willing to bet that Tesla will overtake Waymo's capabilities. Yes, it's a speculation and you can disagree, but unless proven you can't tell it's wrong
DannyBee 2y ago
"The cost of building Tesla FSD = 1/100 * cost of building Waymo FSD The cost of delivering Tesla FSD = 1/10 * cost of delivering Waymo FSD" This seems like one of the key assumptions, but is not proven out at all because Tesla does not even have a level 4 vehicle. So the cost of delivering one comparable to waymo is infinite right now! Your other key assumption is "Waymo can never get to the scale of Tesla (it can never buy 5 Million FSD cars, while Tesla is delivering them every 2 years)". Both the assertion in the first part and the second part seem like super-strange assumptions, and not obviously true at all, yet are also critical to your analysis. Waymo could get to the scale of tesla. It may or may not be too expensive to do. It could in fact, buy 5 million FSD cars. It may or may not be too expensive to do. "Mathematically, Tesla has an upper hand over Waymo and it'll play out as that." Or you know, if needed, Waymo could change? It's funny to watch someone say "this one company will be able to adapt in every possible way to it's advantage, and nobody else can or will" That almost never happens. Your retort is then that you are getting downvoted because of anti-musk hate. Have you considered that maybe you just don't have that good of an argument instead, and that your comment comes off as more of a tesla fanboy (regardless if you are) than a useful contribution? I could write the literal opposite comment of what you did, in favor of Waymo. That would not be a useful contribution either for the same reasons.
ddalex 2y ago
> it can never buy 5 Million FSD cars Why not? They only do the integration, and traditional car and electronics manufacturers have solved the scaling problems long ago.
- zooq_ai 2y ago
  cost of Waymo FSD hardware add-ons : $50,000 cost of Tesla FSD hardware add-ons : $5,000 Tesla benefits from vertical integration, which is super important in the innovation phase. I'm still coming to this from an unbiased perspective. Personally, I'd be a lot richer if Waymo wins the FSD race.

jonny_eh 2y ago

> Larry/Sergei left Waymo at a limbo state because they don't think in terms of economics, just coolness. Larry/Sergei didn't create the Cybertruck

zooq_ai 2y ago
They wish they had
- ddalex 2y ago
  Who wishes to have created the car that gets stuck when it rains?
  - zooq_ai 2y ago
    The kind of founders who knows the risk of launching products? The kind of founders who knows shipping > waiting-for-perfection?
    - ddalex 2y ago
      lmao auto founders that never heard of recalls :) move fast and break things may be ok for social networks, but never ok for endangering the safety of others to launch a 6th model of a marque, so well established, theoretically knowing a lot about cars, a model that dies when it gets wet, it's just embarrassing
      - zooq_ai 2y ago
        https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/Tesla/model-3-4-door-sedan/2022 https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/Tesla/model-3-4-door-se...

Workaccount2 2y ago

Tesla doesn't even have a single autonomous vehicle yet... They have driving assist that people still measure in 'number of times I had to grab the wheel'.

shkkmo 2y ago

Tesla is still stuck at Level 3 while Waymo has been operating at level 4 for years. If Tesla does manag to jump straight from level 3 to level 5, they have a chance to compete, but that seems unlikely. They also might move to level 4 and be able to expand level 4 coverage faster, but that still remains to be seen. Waymo has years of experience with the other hard part of self driving taxis: actually picking up and dropping off people without a human driver. Anti-musk partisanship frustrates me, but I suspect it is your fan-boy talking points that drive the downvotes of your comment

zooq_ai 2y ago
A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole. Technology progress is non-linear. Yes, Tesla is at L3 and Waymo at L4. But, you completely missed the point of rate-of-innovation, which was why I made that as first point. My GOOG holdings are 4x than TSLA. But in terms of who will deliver FSD at better margins, it's hands down TSLA. It's simple Math and Elon's obsession about cutting material costs & process to it's barest minimum. Waymo has no such discipline or culture.
- DannyBee 2y ago
  "A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole." FWIW - You definitely come off as as irrationally in favor of tesla, regardless of reason. Nobody missed any of your points, they just don't agree with most them or believe the rest follow from your points.
  - zooq_ai 2y ago
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffhD_dNzoM0 https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffhD_dNzoM0 Any driver that makes this kind of move is typically in the top 5%ile of driving skills. Yes, it's an asshole and slightly illegal move, but the level of intelligence that needs to be applied for this move is all you need to know about Tesla's advantages. I have been extremely critical of Musk's reliance on only cameras, but I'm impressed with the progress they have made because of the new architecture in 12.x series. Considering it'll be trained with 100x more compute, I'm willing to bet that Tesla will overtake Waymo's capabilities. Yes, it's a speculation and you can disagree, but unless proven you can't tell it's wrong

DannyBee 2y ago

"The cost of building Tesla FSD = 1/100 * cost of building Waymo FSD The cost of delivering Tesla FSD = 1/10 * cost of delivering Waymo FSD" This seems like one of the key assumptions, but is not proven out at all because Tesla does not even have a level 4 vehicle. So the cost of delivering one comparable to waymo is infinite right now! Your other key assumption is "Waymo can never get to the scale of Tesla (it can never buy 5 Million FSD cars, while Tesla is delivering them every 2 years)". Both the assertion in the first part and the second part seem like super-strange assumptions, and not obviously true at all, yet are also critical to your analysis. Waymo could get to the scale of tesla. It may or may not be too expensive to do. It could in fact, buy 5 million FSD cars. It may or may not be too expensive to do. "Mathematically, Tesla has an upper hand over Waymo and it'll play out as that." Or you know, if needed, Waymo could change? It's funny to watch someone say "this one company will be able to adapt in every possible way to it's advantage, and nobody else can or will" That almost never happens. Your retort is then that you are getting downvoted because of anti-musk hate. Have you considered that maybe you just don't have that good of an argument instead, and that your comment comes off as more of a tesla fanboy (regardless if you are) than a useful contribution? I could write the literal opposite comment of what you did, in favor of Waymo. That would not be a useful contribution either for the same reasons.

ddalex 2y ago

> it can never buy 5 Million FSD cars Why not? They only do the integration, and traditional car and electronics manufacturers have solved the scaling problems long ago.

zooq_ai 2y ago
cost of Waymo FSD hardware add-ons : $50,000 cost of Tesla FSD hardware add-ons : $5,000 Tesla benefits from vertical integration, which is super important in the innovation phase. I'm still coming to this from an unbiased perspective. Personally, I'd be a lot richer if Waymo wins the FSD race.