5 ms·

I read a book a bit ago about deglobalization: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_the_World_Is_Just_the_Beginning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of

I read a book a bit ago about deglobalization: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_the_World_Is_Just_the_Beginning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_the_World_Is_Just_t... It makes a good case for, among other things, that once the US stops enforcing order on the seas, globally, that there’s going to be at best regional powers looking out for their own interests, only, and widespread piracy where even that is lacking. Draught is one thing, but if pirates attacking commercial ships aren’t being smacked down that’s pretty alarming and doesn’t bode well.

lizardking 2y ago
The problem with Zeihan's predictions is that they are predicated on the assumption that America is retreating from entanglements around the globe. I'm not sure how anybody watching what's happening in Gaza and Ukraine could credibly make that statement.
- eej71 2y ago
  I would describe America's support for Israel and Ukraine as rather restrained or half-hearted at best. So in that sense its a retreat.
r00fus 2y ago
I read that book and it get so much wrong. Its views on Russia for example have been completely flattened by the Ukraine invasion and response. Russia has successfully switched to a war economy, US companies that pulled out are co-opted by Russian ones and doing business in a more or less normal manner. Sanctions have failed, and pushed Russia closer to China (not to mention North Korea). When you view purely through the lens of demography, you can't extrapolate to global politics.
- jncfhnb 2y ago
  Russia’s economy is in the toilet. It’s also very clearly not on a wartime economy still as evidenced by the tiny output of new material.
  - r00fus 2y ago
    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/russia-forecast-to-grow-faster-than-advanced-economies-in-2024-imf.html#:~:text=International%20Monetary%20Fund.-,Russia%20is%20expected%20to%20grow%203.2%25%20in%202024%2C%20the%20IMF,%25)%20and%20France%20(0.7%25) https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/russia-forecast-to-grow-fast....
- electric_mayhem 2y ago
  Really? I remember I expected Europe to try the appeasement nonsense that only emboldened the precious century’s fascist expansion effort. I was surprised and delighted to see any level of resistance, even if it’s only to enable Ukraine to hold the line. I dunno, friend. No offense, but I’m going to go with the professional geopolitical strategist’s take over yours -especially where I perceive subsequent reality validating his ideas- unless you’ve got comparable creds of your own or more substance to your refution of his ideas.

lizardking 2y ago

The problem with Zeihan's predictions is that they are predicated on the assumption that America is retreating from entanglements around the globe. I'm not sure how anybody watching what's happening in Gaza and Ukraine could credibly make that statement.

eej71 2y ago
I would describe America's support for Israel and Ukraine as rather restrained or half-hearted at best. So in that sense its a retreat.

r00fus 2y ago

I read that book and it get so much wrong. Its views on Russia for example have been completely flattened by the Ukraine invasion and response. Russia has successfully switched to a war economy, US companies that pulled out are co-opted by Russian ones and doing business in a more or less normal manner. Sanctions have failed, and pushed Russia closer to China (not to mention North Korea). When you view purely through the lens of demography, you can't extrapolate to global politics.

jncfhnb 2y ago
Russia’s economy is in the toilet. It’s also very clearly not on a wartime economy still as evidenced by the tiny output of new material.
- r00fus 2y ago
  https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/russia-forecast-to-grow-faster-than-advanced-economies-in-2024-imf.html#:~:text=International%20Monetary%20Fund.-,Russia%20is%20expected%20to%20grow%203.2%25%20in%202024%2C%20the%20IMF,%25)%20and%20France%20(0.7%25) https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/russia-forecast-to-grow-fast....
electric_mayhem 2y ago
Really? I remember I expected Europe to try the appeasement nonsense that only emboldened the precious century’s fascist expansion effort. I was surprised and delighted to see any level of resistance, even if it’s only to enable Ukraine to hold the line. I dunno, friend. No offense, but I’m going to go with the professional geopolitical strategist’s take over yours -especially where I perceive subsequent reality validating his ideas- unless you’ve got comparable creds of your own or more substance to your refution of his ideas.