3 ms·

At 2.7% that's 2.7% and .7% growth faster than wages. Let's look at the bay's wage growth[0]: 11% (or ~1%/yr) from 2010-2020, but they removed CPI-U inflation[

At 2.7% that's 2.7% and .7% growth faster than wages. Let's look at the bay's wage growth[0]: 11% (or ~1%/yr) from 2010-2020, but they removed CPI-U inflation[1], so it's something higher (annual was ~1-3% in that time period). Which puts the bay area housing at 5%+ higher growth, 2x to 7x worse than Spain. So, once again - Spain is doing well when it comes to housing prices. Tourism frustrates locals because they think it's increased their housing costs wildly - but in fact it's because their economy is switching to a tourist economy unless they find an industry to grow. [0]: https://bayareaequityatlas.org/indicators/income-growth?year=2010-2020 https://bayareaequityatlas.org/indicators/income-growth?year... [1]: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0&output_view=pct_...

verteu 2y ago
I don't follow your calculations; It appears you're doing arithmetic with CAGRs from three different date ranges (2010-2020, 2012-2019, and L10Y). An apples-to-apples comparison illustrates my point: L10Y cumulative change in: Bay Area rent: +46.0% [0] Bay Area wages: +45.7% [1] Vs: Barcelona rent: +70% (if we believe TFA) Spain wages: +30% [2] Or: Cumulative 2010-2020 change in: Bay Area rent: +57% [0] Bay Area wages: +34% [1] which also looks bad (but not as bad as Barcelona L10Y). Indeed, there were lots of complaints about housing costs in SF then. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA422SEHA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA422SEHA [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06418840500000003 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06418840500000003 [2] https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=59150 https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=59150
- codemac 2y ago
  Yeah I didn't have good data sources, and took shortcuts on the math. I guess it just doesn't look bad to me in terms of their real estate, thanks for pointing me to these better data sources.

verteu 2y ago

I don't follow your calculations; It appears you're doing arithmetic with CAGRs from three different date ranges (2010-2020, 2012-2019, and L10Y). An apples-to-apples comparison illustrates my point: L10Y cumulative change in: Bay Area rent: +46.0% [0] Bay Area wages: +45.7% [1] Vs: Barcelona rent: +70% (if we believe TFA) Spain wages: +30% [2] Or: Cumulative 2010-2020 change in: Bay Area rent: +57% [0] Bay Area wages: +34% [1] which also looks bad (but not as bad as Barcelona L10Y). Indeed, there were lots of complaints about housing costs in SF then. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA422SEHA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA422SEHA [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06418840500000003 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06418840500000003 [2] https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=59150 https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=59150

codemac 2y ago
Yeah I didn't have good data sources, and took shortcuts on the math. I guess it just doesn't look bad to me in terms of their real estate, thanks for pointing me to these better data sources.