4 ms·

Many years ago I would have said Apple would never leave the EU, but now I’d say it’s firmly in the “possible” territory. Maybe it’s a win for both parties of

Many years ago I would have said Apple would never leave the EU, but now I’d say it’s firmly in the “possible” territory. Maybe it’s a win for both parties of Apple leaves the EU, though I’m skeptical any homegrown EU product would have any traction unless they also force Google to divest Android. I’d love to know how much work it is for Apple to comply and deal with the EU regulatory environment. Interesting times.

chipweinberger 2y ago
Might not be homegrown. Anyone could come in. Would be a nice enticement too.
andersa 2y ago
Apple has invested more work into malicious non-compliance than it would have taken to simply do it right the first time.
hifromwork 2y ago
Why would apple leave the EU? It's a huge market, and I don't think there is a risk of their profit in the EU going negative because of some relatively small concessions. They can keep existing rules for the rest of the world and change them slightly for the EU. Unless they are afraid that other countries will demand the same if they budge?
- endisneigh 2y ago
  China is a huge market and Google left. Anything is possible.
  - user_7832 2y ago
    The EU is much closer to the US than China is, however.
  - Jensson 2y ago
    Apple hasn't left China though, why would they leave Europe that has much less regulatory issues?
    - graemep 2y ago
      nor have they left Russia despite sanctions (and have not attracted the opprobrium for that that companies like Unilever have)
    - endisneigh 2y ago
      I am not saying they will leave, I’m saving it’s for me anyway, no longer inconceivable.
  - troupo 2y ago
    Google was forced to leave. Partly because their lucrative business of siphoning user data for ads hasn't panned out in China. Note how Apple doesn't leave China despite significantly stricter regulation than Google faced,
- vsl 2y ago
  > It's a huge market Approximately 7% of Apple's worldwide revenue: https://daringfireball.net/2024/03/eu_share_of_apples_revenue https://daringfireball.net/2024/03/eu_share_of_apples_revenu... That's hardly "huge" especially when weighted against DMA's fines up to 10-20% of worldwide revenue plus the uncertainty risk of interpreting DMA.
  - Jensson 2y ago
    I really doubt that blogs numbers, the revenue share in Europe is around 25%, I doubt less than a third of that is in EU: https://www.statista.com/statistics/382288/geographical-region-share-of-revenue-of-apple/#:~:text=As%20of%20the%20second%20quarter,the%20holiday%20seasons%20take%20place https://www.statista.com/statistics/382288/geographical-regi....
    - Aloisius 2y ago
      That's not actually Europe. That's Apple's "Europe" sector which includes 4 billion people across Europe, India, Africa and the Middle East.
  - jsnell 2y ago
    7% of App Store revenue. Not all their revenue.
  - indoordin0saur 2y ago
    That's amazingly low given that Europe has such a large portion of the world's wealthy consumers. Even then, I think it'd be a huge risk to Apple if they created the perfect conditions for the might of the Polish/German/Ukrainian/Dutch developers to create their own Apple competitor.
    - lurking_swe 2y ago
      Gathering some hard data… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe... look at the “by country” table. If sorted by mean, 2 countries in the top 10. If sorted by median, 3. I agree that 7% of app store revenue seems low. HOWEVER keep in mind that the EU is tiny on a population level. Not a single county cracks the top ten. So maybe not so surprising…
hu3 2y ago
If Apple left EU, in the long run it would be very damaging to their market worldwide because of network effects. Suddenly other governments (and people) would have a very real exhibit that life just goes on and that one company is not as important as previously thought.
pjmlp 2y ago
Sure, and then they can leave Japan and India next, as well.
rolandboon 2y ago
In the short term that would impact their stock price way too much; I don't think they would pull that trigger. In the long term this stance will become untenable if other regions come to the same conclusions. Anti-competition investigations against Apple are currently running in: - US (https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple...) - UK (https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/investigation-into-apple-appstore https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/investigation-into-apple-appsto...) - Japan (https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/06/bc2d7f45d456-japan-enacts-law-to-curb-apple-googles-app-dominance.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/06/bc2d7f45d456-japa...) Australia (https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/new-competition-laws-needed-in-response-to-expansion-of-digital-platforms https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/new-competition-laws-n...) and India (https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-amazon-apple-lobby-group-opposes-indias-eu-like-antitrust-proposal-2024-05-28/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-amazon-apple-lobby...) will follow soon.
sloowm 2y ago
This argument only makes sense if you think of Apple as an entity that has a nationality. It's an internationally traded company that is therefore owned by international money. The stars would have to align in a very special way for 50% of the shareholders to agree that it's to Apple's strategic benefit to leave the EU. It also underestimates the costs of leaving the EU or any country. In a lot of cases there are laws against leaving a countries market. I doubt the shareholders want Apple to go into such a fight. Any extra work it requires to comply can be offset by price increases if Apple needs to recoup those losses.
blackoil 2y ago
That would be very very stupid. Their marketshare is already going down in China. Soon RoW will bring in similar laws and Apple will sell only in Texas and Florida.
bogwog 2y ago
> Many years ago I would have said Apple would never leave the EU, but now I’d say it’s firmly in the “possible” territory. I don't even think that Steve Jobs would be able to pull that one off.
sensanaty 2y ago
God I'd give anything to see that happen. It would be the happiest day of my life, especially once (not if) other countries start following suit with their own regulations that will target Apple and they pull out of more and more countries until they only sell in Texas, I guess. Shame it's a pipe dream

chipweinberger 2y ago

Might not be homegrown. Anyone could come in. Would be a nice enticement too.

andersa 2y ago

Apple has invested more work into malicious non-compliance than it would have taken to simply do it right the first time.

hifromwork 2y ago

Why would apple leave the EU? It's a huge market, and I don't think there is a risk of their profit in the EU going negative because of some relatively small concessions. They can keep existing rules for the rest of the world and change them slightly for the EU. Unless they are afraid that other countries will demand the same if they budge?

endisneigh 2y ago
China is a huge market and Google left. Anything is possible.
- user_7832 2y ago
  The EU is much closer to the US than China is, however.
- Jensson 2y ago
  Apple hasn't left China though, why would they leave Europe that has much less regulatory issues?
  - graemep 2y ago
    nor have they left Russia despite sanctions (and have not attracted the opprobrium for that that companies like Unilever have)
  - endisneigh 2y ago
    I am not saying they will leave, I’m saving it’s for me anyway, no longer inconceivable.
- troupo 2y ago
  Google was forced to leave. Partly because their lucrative business of siphoning user data for ads hasn't panned out in China. Note how Apple doesn't leave China despite significantly stricter regulation than Google faced,
vsl 2y ago
> It's a huge market Approximately 7% of Apple's worldwide revenue: https://daringfireball.net/2024/03/eu_share_of_apples_revenue https://daringfireball.net/2024/03/eu_share_of_apples_revenu... That's hardly "huge" especially when weighted against DMA's fines up to 10-20% of worldwide revenue plus the uncertainty risk of interpreting DMA.
- Jensson 2y ago
  I really doubt that blogs numbers, the revenue share in Europe is around 25%, I doubt less than a third of that is in EU: https://www.statista.com/statistics/382288/geographical-region-share-of-revenue-of-apple/#:~:text=As%20of%20the%20second%20quarter,the%20holiday%20seasons%20take%20place https://www.statista.com/statistics/382288/geographical-regi....
  - Aloisius 2y ago
    That's not actually Europe. That's Apple's "Europe" sector which includes 4 billion people across Europe, India, Africa and the Middle East.
- jsnell 2y ago
  7% of App Store revenue. Not all their revenue.
- indoordin0saur 2y ago
  That's amazingly low given that Europe has such a large portion of the world's wealthy consumers. Even then, I think it'd be a huge risk to Apple if they created the perfect conditions for the might of the Polish/German/Ukrainian/Dutch developers to create their own Apple competitor.
  - lurking_swe 2y ago
    Gathering some hard data… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe... look at the “by country” table. If sorted by mean, 2 countries in the top 10. If sorted by median, 3. I agree that 7% of app store revenue seems low. HOWEVER keep in mind that the EU is tiny on a population level. Not a single county cracks the top ten. So maybe not so surprising…

hu3 2y ago

If Apple left EU, in the long run it would be very damaging to their market worldwide because of network effects. Suddenly other governments (and people) would have a very real exhibit that life just goes on and that one company is not as important as previously thought.

pjmlp 2y ago

Sure, and then they can leave Japan and India next, as well.

rolandboon 2y ago

In the short term that would impact their stock price way too much; I don't think they would pull that trigger. In the long term this stance will become untenable if other regions come to the same conclusions. Anti-competition investigations against Apple are currently running in: - US (https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple...) - UK (https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/investigation-into-apple-appstore https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/investigation-into-apple-appsto...) - Japan (https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/06/bc2d7f45d456-japan-enacts-law-to-curb-apple-googles-app-dominance.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/06/bc2d7f45d456-japa...) Australia (https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/new-competition-laws-needed-in-response-to-expansion-of-digital-platforms https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/new-competition-laws-n...) and India (https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-amazon-apple-lobby-group-opposes-indias-eu-like-antitrust-proposal-2024-05-28/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-amazon-apple-lobby...) will follow soon.

sloowm 2y ago

This argument only makes sense if you think of Apple as an entity that has a nationality. It's an internationally traded company that is therefore owned by international money. The stars would have to align in a very special way for 50% of the shareholders to agree that it's to Apple's strategic benefit to leave the EU. It also underestimates the costs of leaving the EU or any country. In a lot of cases there are laws against leaving a countries market. I doubt the shareholders want Apple to go into such a fight. Any extra work it requires to comply can be offset by price increases if Apple needs to recoup those losses.

blackoil 2y ago

That would be very very stupid. Their marketshare is already going down in China. Soon RoW will bring in similar laws and Apple will sell only in Texas and Florida.

bogwog 2y ago

> Many years ago I would have said Apple would never leave the EU, but now I’d say it’s firmly in the “possible” territory. I don't even think that Steve Jobs would be able to pull that one off.

sensanaty 2y ago

God I'd give anything to see that happen. It would be the happiest day of my life, especially once (not if) other countries start following suit with their own regulations that will target Apple and they pull out of more and more countries until they only sell in Texas, I guess. Shame it's a pipe dream