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you've got a good point about experts being critical with no accountability. However, when studying a complex, multivariate problem, if you find one or two var
by achenet 2y ago
you've got a good point about experts being critical with no accountability.
However, when studying a complex, multivariate problem, if you find one or two variables that can easily affect the outcome (lower hood heights), it does seem sensible to optimize it, while obviously keeping in mind that you can optimize for other things.
- robomartin 2y agoThe point may have been lost: Fully 50% of deaths occurred during the pre-SUV era. That's 2 million out of 4 million, not a trivial number. If we go out to 1998 and call that a less intense SUV era, that's 3 million deaths, of 75% of all deaths since the beginning of time. This, to me, on first inspection, is pretty strong evidence indicating that the 10 cm prediction is very close to nonsense. The prediction is no different from saying TSLA will go to $1000 because of some randomly-picked variable that will never be tested. Sounds fantastic and cam make me look very intelligent, yet, I would not have any accountability at all in making such a prediction. Now, if I wanted to sell a book about how to make a billion dollars trading Tesla, I would write a bunch of blog posts explaining how this could happen and feature a nice picture of myself holding the book along with an Amazon link. Which is what this article is about.