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Which way would you update our confidence? A: We were so wrong earlier, but now we "know better", due to better measurements, better models and more evidence, s
by sameerds 2y ago
Which way would you update our confidence? A: We were so wrong earlier, but now we "know better", due to better measurements, better models and more evidence, so our confidence is higher. B: We have been so wrong in the past, so our confidence is lower.
To me the second option is akin to despair.
- setgree 2y agoI mean in terms of bounds of years. In other words, how much uncertainty surrounds our new estimates.
- sameerds 2y agoI did mean the same thing, although I ended up using really loose informal English. Should our intervals be tighter on the new finding?
- setgree 2y agonot for me. I don't know much about the emergence of freshwater, but if I learn at some point that humans were in the Americas 50,000 years ago --- perhaps they used rudimentary rafts? -- I will not be shocked.