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> IMO it is close. ... ~40%... increasing by over 1.5% per year and accelerating. That would have been close 15 years ago. We are already way behind, and suffe

> IMO it is close. ... ~40%... increasing by over 1.5% per year and accelerating. That would have been close 15 years ago. We are already way behind, and suffering warming effects with droughts, and fires, and heat waves, and floods etc. :-( > Cars last a long time so every ICE sold today is ~26 years of pollution locked in. I would actually guess that 26 years is more of a maximum rather than an average. But regardless - regulatory measures could enforce increasingly more strict pollution limits, which would make it so that the more polluting cars will not be able to be driven legally without some expensive modifications to capture emissions internally. In fact, this already happens in many countries today, forcing decades-old, super-polluting car models off the road. And the availability of gasoline distribution stations could decrease etc.

Retric 2y ago
Global warming has been noticeable and accelerating for 50+ years. Being at the turning point where CO2 emissions are likely lower within 5-10 years despite population and economic growth represents a great deal of progress. > I would actually guess that 26 years is more of a maximum rather than an average. It’s actually a low estimate. Average car on the road in the US is 12.6 years *2 = 25.2 but that’s biased because there’s a slow increase in the number of cars on the road which underestimates lifespan. Also there is there is a net outflow of cars from American that get sent to other countries.
- einpoklum 2y ago
  > Average car on the road in the US is 12.6 years *2 = 25.2 Hmm... I was naturally thinking about the country I live in (Palestine/Israel), but then I remembered I see a lot of old cars in US movies. Guess I'll take your word and assume that's more like the global average.
  - Retric 2y ago
    Israel has younger cars than the US because the total number of cars is increasing rapidly and you don’t manufacture (import) old cars instead mostly buying new ones. In 2013 there were 2.85 million, it grew to 3.97 million by 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1364372/number-of-motor-vehicles-in-israel/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20total%20number,steady%20increase%20can%20be%20observed https://www.statista.com/statistics/1364372/number-of-motor-....

Retric 2y ago

Global warming has been noticeable and accelerating for 50+ years. Being at the turning point where CO2 emissions are likely lower within 5-10 years despite population and economic growth represents a great deal of progress. > I would actually guess that 26 years is more of a maximum rather than an average. It’s actually a low estimate. Average car on the road in the US is 12.6 years *2 = 25.2 but that’s biased because there’s a slow increase in the number of cars on the road which underestimates lifespan. Also there is there is a net outflow of cars from American that get sent to other countries.

einpoklum 2y ago
> Average car on the road in the US is 12.6 years *2 = 25.2 Hmm... I was naturally thinking about the country I live in (Palestine/Israel), but then I remembered I see a lot of old cars in US movies. Guess I'll take your word and assume that's more like the global average.
- Retric 2y ago
  Israel has younger cars than the US because the total number of cars is increasing rapidly and you don’t manufacture (import) old cars instead mostly buying new ones. In 2013 there were 2.85 million, it grew to 3.97 million by 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1364372/number-of-motor-vehicles-in-israel/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20total%20number,steady%20increase%20can%20be%20observed https://www.statista.com/statistics/1364372/number-of-motor-....