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And would you not say that this pessimism is a recurring theme in humanity? In 1903 the NYTimes predicted that human flight would be impossible, that it's been

And would you not say that this pessimism is a recurring theme in humanity? In 1903 the NYTimes predicted that human flight would be impossible, that it's been a complete waste of resources to pursue - resources that could be put to much better and realistic use elsewhere, and that it was ultimately a childish fantasy. They had typically great timing as it was only 9 weeks later than the Wright Bros completed their inaugural flight. Then once it was completed they insisted it was pointless anyhow, because it would only ever be possible for but a handful of rich elites to actually utilize. By 1920 they'd be back boldly claiming that human spaceflight would be impossible. This time with even more scorn, mockery, and appeal to expertise: "That [rocket pioneer Robert] Goddard… does not know the relation of action to reaction, and of the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react — to say that would be absurd. Of course he only seems to lack the knowledge ladled out daily in high schools." [2] Everybody with a basic knowledge of Newtonian laws knows you need something to react against to move, and there's nothing in space to react against. What imbeciles to think otherwise! The problem we face is that it's impossible to meaningfully predict the future when there may yet remain many revolutionary or otherwise unimaginable discoveries yet to be made. In general I see room for extreme optimism because in terms of basic knowledge of the universe we knew next to nothing but a century ago. And we remain a people stranded on a single planet relying on imprecise limited instrumentation, lots of assumptions, and some math to try to figure out what's happening in the other 99.999999999% (one should add quite a few more nines there) of the universe. To assume we've just figured it all out in this century seems improbable, to put it very mildly. [1] - https://bigthink.com/pessimists-archive/air-space-flight-impossible/ https://bigthink.com/pessimists-archive/air-space-flight-imp... [2] - https://www.vice.com/en/article/kbzd3a/the-new-york-times-1920-editorial-mocking-space-travel-remains-a-classic https://www.vice.com/en/article/kbzd3a/the-new-york-times-19...

kiba 2y ago
All these people didn't make a prediction based on physics. Of course, it also doesn't help if you misunderstand physics. Physics will determine a lot of what's actually possible and not possible to build, and there's a lot of things we could build even without FTL. FTL is understood as mostly impossible because it violates causality.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_fundamental_physics_discoveries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_fundamental_physic... lists quite a few recent discoveries in the field of physics. The idea that we’re done discovering new things is… tough to support. The theory of relativity is more recent than flight, even.
  - kiba 2y ago
    I didn't say anything about discoveries in fundamental physics. Regardless, the problem of FTL travel is still the same. It violates cause and effect.
    - ceejayoz 2y ago
      And delayed choice quantum erasers challenge concepts of cause and effect in ways physicists were deeply uncomfortable with for quite a while.
      - somenameforme 2y ago
        Right. I think many don't really appreciate the famous Einstein quotes many of us are familiar with. When Einstein referred to quantum entanglement as "spooky action at a distance" it was not in the context of describing it, but mocking it. Picture more like him making a face while adding some scare quotes to the quote. In fact Einstein rejected, to his death, what would come to be seen as the standard/Copenhagen model of quantum mechanics precisely because he refused to accept this apparent violation of causality, to which there remains no clear explanation.
- somenameforme 2y ago
  Yes, they were making their predictions based on physics, math, and experimental evidence. One thing you have to keep in mind is that in most cases science tends to follow discovery, rather than vice versa. Here [1] is a random selection of great quotes from the time. If you're not familiar with the names, feel free to Wiki them. It is about as credentialed a list of scientific experts as one might imagine possible: -------- Is it not demonstrated that a true flying machine, self-raising, self-sustaining, self-propelling, is physically impossible? — Joseph LeConte, November 1888 It is apparent to me that the possibilities of the aeroplane, which two or three years ago were thought to hold the solution to the [flying machine] problem, have been exhausted, and that we must turn elsewhere. — Thomas Edison, November 1895 I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible. — Lord Kelvin, 1895 I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than ballooning, or of the expectation of good results from any of the trials we heard of. So you will understand that I would not care to be a member of the Aeronautical Society. — Lord Kelvin, 1896 The present generation will not [fly in the next century], and no practical engineer would devote himself to the problem now. — William Worby Beaumont, January 1900 There is no basis for the ardent hopes and positive statements made as to the safe and successful use of the dirigible balloon or flying machine, or both, for commercial transportation or as weapons of war. — George Melville, December 1901 The demonstration that no possible combination of known substances, known forms of machinery and known forms of force, can be united in a practical machine by which men shall fly along distances through the air, seems to the writer as complete as it is possible for the demonstration to be. — Simon Newcomb, 1900 Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible. — Simon Newcomb, 1902 It is complete nonsense to believe flying machines will ever work. — Stanley Mosley, 1905 The aeroplane will never fly. — Lord Haldane, 1907 -------- I'm sure one can dig up plenty more. Mathematicians and physicists simply thought it impossible. You could have asked the question on stock overflow math/physics of the time and gotten plenty of well informed and accurate (by the standards of the times) explaining exactly why it was impossible. It just so turns out that everybody was wrong, as was about to be demonstrated by a couple of high school drop-out bike shop repairmen. As the article mentions, one noteworthy thing is that the final quote is even after the Wright Bros succeeded. So absurd was the concept to many, that most people still did not believe it happened, even after it did. [1] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/heavier-than-air-flight-impossible-ra%C3%A9d-alexander-ayyad https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/heavier-than-air-flight-impos...

kiba 2y ago

All these people didn't make a prediction based on physics. Of course, it also doesn't help if you misunderstand physics. Physics will determine a lot of what's actually possible and not possible to build, and there's a lot of things we could build even without FTL. FTL is understood as mostly impossible because it violates causality.

ceejayoz 2y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_fundamental_physics_discoveries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_fundamental_physic... lists quite a few recent discoveries in the field of physics. The idea that we’re done discovering new things is… tough to support. The theory of relativity is more recent than flight, even.
- kiba 2y ago
  I didn't say anything about discoveries in fundamental physics. Regardless, the problem of FTL travel is still the same. It violates cause and effect.
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    And delayed choice quantum erasers challenge concepts of cause and effect in ways physicists were deeply uncomfortable with for quite a while.
    - somenameforme 2y ago
      Right. I think many don't really appreciate the famous Einstein quotes many of us are familiar with. When Einstein referred to quantum entanglement as "spooky action at a distance" it was not in the context of describing it, but mocking it. Picture more like him making a face while adding some scare quotes to the quote. In fact Einstein rejected, to his death, what would come to be seen as the standard/Copenhagen model of quantum mechanics precisely because he refused to accept this apparent violation of causality, to which there remains no clear explanation.
somenameforme 2y ago
Yes, they were making their predictions based on physics, math, and experimental evidence. One thing you have to keep in mind is that in most cases science tends to follow discovery, rather than vice versa. Here [1] is a random selection of great quotes from the time. If you're not familiar with the names, feel free to Wiki them. It is about as credentialed a list of scientific experts as one might imagine possible: -------- Is it not demonstrated that a true flying machine, self-raising, self-sustaining, self-propelling, is physically impossible? — Joseph LeConte, November 1888 It is apparent to me that the possibilities of the aeroplane, which two or three years ago were thought to hold the solution to the [flying machine] problem, have been exhausted, and that we must turn elsewhere. — Thomas Edison, November 1895 I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible. — Lord Kelvin, 1895 I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than ballooning, or of the expectation of good results from any of the trials we heard of. So you will understand that I would not care to be a member of the Aeronautical Society. — Lord Kelvin, 1896 The present generation will not [fly in the next century], and no practical engineer would devote himself to the problem now. — William Worby Beaumont, January 1900 There is no basis for the ardent hopes and positive statements made as to the safe and successful use of the dirigible balloon or flying machine, or both, for commercial transportation or as weapons of war. — George Melville, December 1901 The demonstration that no possible combination of known substances, known forms of machinery and known forms of force, can be united in a practical machine by which men shall fly along distances through the air, seems to the writer as complete as it is possible for the demonstration to be. — Simon Newcomb, 1900 Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible. — Simon Newcomb, 1902 It is complete nonsense to believe flying machines will ever work. — Stanley Mosley, 1905 The aeroplane will never fly. — Lord Haldane, 1907 -------- I'm sure one can dig up plenty more. Mathematicians and physicists simply thought it impossible. You could have asked the question on stock overflow math/physics of the time and gotten plenty of well informed and accurate (by the standards of the times) explaining exactly why it was impossible. It just so turns out that everybody was wrong, as was about to be demonstrated by a couple of high school drop-out bike shop repairmen. As the article mentions, one noteworthy thing is that the final quote is even after the Wright Bros succeeded. So absurd was the concept to many, that most people still did not believe it happened, even after it did. [1] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/heavier-than-air-flight-impossible-ra%C3%A9d-alexander-ayyad https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/heavier-than-air-flight-impos...