5 ms·

Here is a bet: Once a new coalition gets elected in 2025 (most likely led by the Union (CDU/CSU)) exceptions to the strict rules of the debt brake will be found

by generic92034 2y ago

Here is a bet: Once a new coalition gets elected in 2025 (most likely led by the Union (CDU/CSU)) exceptions to the strict rules of the debt brake will be found. Currently, the Union as part of the opposition has no motivation to agree to any exceptions (2/3 majority required). But that will change very quickly once they are part of a coalition.

qznc 2y ago
We already know some: For example, a special budget (Sondervermögen) for the Ukraine war. Our finance minister and our chancellor just don’t want it.
- generic92034 2y ago
  Yes, the FDP is part of the problem. But since you need a 2/3 majority to establish more special budgets even getting all coalition parties on board, you also need parts of the opposition.
inglor_cz 2y ago
Beware of the Constitutional Court (Karlsruhe). Unless the Constitution is amended explicitly, any attempts to bypass the Debt Brake by creative accounting etc. will likely be slapped down by the judges.
- generic92034 2y ago
  The "creative accounting" part regarding the recent court decision was the attempt to re-use a Corona special budget for something else, after the Corona pandemic was over. This is pretty easy to avoid for new special budgets. You "just" need the 2/3 majority.
ofrzeta 2y ago
That would require the new coalition to have a 2/3 majority which is unlikely I think. Most probably it will be a Große Koalition again with the CDU/CSU around 35% and the SPD around 15%.
- generic92034 2y ago
  My point was, that in my opinion the large opposition parties will agree to special budgets, securing the 2/3 majority, mostly to be consistent and maybe also out of a feeling of responsibility.
- majewsky 2y ago
  You only need 50% majority to declare an extraordinary emergency situation ("außergewöhnliche Notsituation", Art. 109 Abs. 3 Satz 2 GG) and then any expenses related to the emergency do not fall under the debt brake. The government can just direct government-owned corporations (e.g. Deutsche Bahn) to make new shares and purchase them with fresh money, thus giving the corporation a free cash infusion. Financial transactions are also not covered by the debt brake.

qznc 2y ago

We already know some: For example, a special budget (Sondervermögen) for the Ukraine war. Our finance minister and our chancellor just don’t want it.

generic92034 2y ago
Yes, the FDP is part of the problem. But since you need a 2/3 majority to establish more special budgets even getting all coalition parties on board, you also need parts of the opposition.

inglor_cz 2y ago

Beware of the Constitutional Court (Karlsruhe). Unless the Constitution is amended explicitly, any attempts to bypass the Debt Brake by creative accounting etc. will likely be slapped down by the judges.

generic92034 2y ago
The "creative accounting" part regarding the recent court decision was the attempt to re-use a Corona special budget for something else, after the Corona pandemic was over. This is pretty easy to avoid for new special budgets. You "just" need the 2/3 majority.

ofrzeta 2y ago

That would require the new coalition to have a 2/3 majority which is unlikely I think. Most probably it will be a Große Koalition again with the CDU/CSU around 35% and the SPD around 15%.

generic92034 2y ago
My point was, that in my opinion the large opposition parties will agree to special budgets, securing the 2/3 majority, mostly to be consistent and maybe also out of a feeling of responsibility.
majewsky 2y ago
You only need 50% majority to declare an extraordinary emergency situation ("außergewöhnliche Notsituation", Art. 109 Abs. 3 Satz 2 GG) and then any expenses related to the emergency do not fall under the debt brake. The government can just direct government-owned corporations (e.g. Deutsche Bahn) to make new shares and purchase them with fresh money, thus giving the corporation a free cash infusion. Financial transactions are also not covered by the debt brake.