4 ms·

That’s comforting in some sense. Got a link or a graph I can use to propagate these news?

ZeroGravitas 2y ago
The recent Rocky Mountain Institute report focuses on the exponentials with some nice graphs: https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2024/06/RMI-Cleantech-Revolution-pdf.pdf https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2024/06/RMI-C... A blog post covering it, from recent Royal Statistical Society honorary fellow, Hannah Ritchie: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/cleantech-revolution https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/cleantech-revoluti...
- h0l0cube 2y ago
  Big fan of Hannah Ritchie's analyses, but I do feel like that PDF is a little over optimistic with both future and allegedly recent peaks for fossil fuel consumption. That said, I retrieved a bunch of a bunch of historical data from OWID, and with some cheap regression analysis in Desmos, I compiled this mindmelting graph https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lunahw7gvo https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lunahw7gvo Basically the energy singularity happens in 2034, where wind daily generation + solar daily consumption — which is disturbingly superlinear — eclipses the global energy consumption trend — which is disturbingly linear — and then worldwide storage, which is growing at an even more absurd pace, exceeds solar and wind the following year. And then 4 years after that we have 10 days of worldwide storage. All the while appliances are becoming more efficient. Perhaps AI, VR, and transport electification will soak up the excess, but we've yet to see even crypto make a noticeable bump in global energy consumption above trend, just glancing at the data. Edit: I couldn't get good data on energy storage, so I used 'added capacity' from here and also a quote from the same site that implies there was 173Gwh capacity in 2021: > Global installed storage capacity is forecast to expand by 56% in the next five years to reach over 270 GW by 2026. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-grid-scale-battery-storage-additions-2017-2022 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-grid-s... https://www.iea.org/articles/how-rapidly-will-the-global-electricity-storage-market-grow-by-2026 https://www.iea.org/articles/how-rapidly-will-the-global-ele... All other data was Twh worldwide from OWID datasets multiplied by 1000/365 to determine average daily usage in Gwh.
MichaelNolan 2y ago
Sure. I started keeping a list of links here https://github.com/LanguageLatte/public/blob/main/SolarPunk/SolarPunkNews.md#2020s https://github.com/LanguageLatte/public/blob/main/SolarPunk/...

The recent Rocky Mountain Institute report focuses on the exponentials with some nice graphs: https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2024/06/RMI-Cleantech-Revolution-pdf.pdf https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2024/06/RMI-C... A blog post covering it, from recent Royal Statistical Society honorary fellow, Hannah Ritchie: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/cleantech-revolution https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/cleantech-revoluti...

h0l0cube 2y ago
Big fan of Hannah Ritchie's analyses, but I do feel like that PDF is a little over optimistic with both future and allegedly recent peaks for fossil fuel consumption. That said, I retrieved a bunch of a bunch of historical data from OWID, and with some cheap regression analysis in Desmos, I compiled this mindmelting graph https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lunahw7gvo https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lunahw7gvo Basically the energy singularity happens in 2034, where wind daily generation + solar daily consumption — which is disturbingly superlinear — eclipses the global energy consumption trend — which is disturbingly linear — and then worldwide storage, which is growing at an even more absurd pace, exceeds solar and wind the following year. And then 4 years after that we have 10 days of worldwide storage. All the while appliances are becoming more efficient. Perhaps AI, VR, and transport electification will soak up the excess, but we've yet to see even crypto make a noticeable bump in global energy consumption above trend, just glancing at the data. Edit: I couldn't get good data on energy storage, so I used 'added capacity' from here and also a quote from the same site that implies there was 173Gwh capacity in 2021: > Global installed storage capacity is forecast to expand by 56% in the next five years to reach over 270 GW by 2026. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-grid-scale-battery-storage-additions-2017-2022 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-grid-s... https://www.iea.org/articles/how-rapidly-will-the-global-electricity-storage-market-grow-by-2026 https://www.iea.org/articles/how-rapidly-will-the-global-ele... All other data was Twh worldwide from OWID datasets multiplied by 1000/365 to determine average daily usage in Gwh.

MichaelNolan 2y ago

Sure. I started keeping a list of links here https://github.com/LanguageLatte/public/blob/main/SolarPunk/SolarPunkNews.md#2020s https://github.com/LanguageLatte/public/blob/main/SolarPunk/...