4 ms·
This is a great example of how point data has been used to reinforce that negative sentiment, and how we need to readdress that sentiment given that over the pa
by anakaine 2y ago
This is a great example of how point data has been used to reinforce that negative sentiment, and how we need to readdress that sentiment given that over the past decade to 15 years the benefit has swung strongly in favour of renewables as a way to bolster the grid and improve energy security. The rejections ignored the incoming economy of scale and ramping of manufacturing, instead focusing on an immediate cost comparisson instead of a reformed market and lifetime project benefit cost scale. When you plan out the lifetime finances for a fossil fuel project, you use the latter. The arguments were perverted to ignore benefits in order to ensure current fossil fuel projects were able to remain generating a profit for as long as possible, minimising their debt and heading towards profitability. As stated, I've been behind that curtain first hand, and my engineering background is in planning out the lifetime of a resource and how to best exploit it.
But let's look at some numbers
Australia, 2023:, renewable 1/4 the cost of nuclear: https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/husic/media-releases/gencost-confirms-renewables-remain-cheapest-form-energy-cost-nuclear-reactors-skyrocket https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/husic/media-r...
IRENA, 2022: "For the last 13 to 15 years, renewable power generation costs from solar and wind power have been falling. Between 2010 and 2022, solar and wind power became cost-competitive with fossil fuels even without financial support. The global weighted average cost of electricity from solar PV fell by 89 per cent to USD 0.049/kWh, almost one-third less than the cheapest fossil fuel globally. For onshore wind the fall was 69 per cent to USD 0.033/kWh in 2022, slightly less than half that of the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option in 2022."
Germany, suffered from early mover issues in ~2015 combined with poor winter planning, however is now reaping the benefits of cheaper generation cost to offset gas supply shortages for baseload due to European supply restrictions, 2021: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/press-releases/2021/levelized-cost-of-electricity-renewables-clearly-superior-to-conventional-power-plants-due-to-rising-co2-prices.html https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/press-releases/...
Even the UK prime minister Boris Johnson, a conservative pundit, went on record as stating that renewables were the quickest, cheapest, and easiest way to shore up the energy grid and remove dependence upon Russian oil and gas. This is a nice nod to the fact that the UK has been bulk importing Scottish renewable energy to ward against the massive price increases caused in Europe by the gas supply restriction: http://scotsman.com/news/environment/sustainable-scotland-without-energy-storage-the-uk-will-miss-net-zero-targets-and-continue-to-rely-on-foreign-imports-for-power-developer-warns-3633 http://scotsman.com/news/environment/sustainable-scotland-wi...
Failing any rational risk taking due to the above illustrations, it's also critical that we reduce our greenhouse emissions. Another topic that is hotly debated when it really is straight forward. Even if renewables were to cost more, the educated policy makers would still steer toward either making them cheaper or installing them if the difference was marginal simply to ensure long term stability, maximising distributed generation and attempting to minimise the effects of a changing climate.
- roenxi 2y agoThere is a lot there and I agree with most of it. But lets just go through the countries you are picking out as examples: 1) Australia's energy situation is humiliating. We've been gifted what might be the most unreasonably energy-rich land in the world and have managed to build this 2nd-rate grid that is not operating anywhere close to the efficiency we could manage. It is so bad that people would often rather go almost off-grid with solar than deal with the costs we manage to impose on ourselves for no obvious reason. We're also technophobes over here, being the only advanced economy that didn't even have the expertise to build a commercial nuclear reactor and having succeeded to an impressive extent in driving any local solar panel expertise off shore to China. 2) Germany's per-capita (and total; their population isn't shrinking) electricity generation has rolled back 50 years of progress into the modern era [0]. I want to reap the opposite of whatever benefits they are reaping, I like to look at their energy stats because it makes Australia look well managed, by comparison. Last time I checked they had the most expensive power in Europe. 3) The UK is also obviously being squeezed for energy availability [1] and appears to be worse off than Germany (!). In line with a lot of other European countries that are struggling. The problem renewables have with this history isn't some sort of "negative sentiment campaigns". The problem appears to be that their track record is appalling and was pushed by a bunch of people who are now in the history books for woefully mismanaging the key input for modern comfort and prosperity. It looks like the future is going to be different because a rational person would choose to be involved now; but the outcomes so far are eye-wateringly bad. The image commercial renewables have is both unreasonably good and improving remarkably quickly given the circumstances we came from; fortunately capitalists are very forgiving to things that start making money. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-electricity-generation?tab=chart&country=~DEU https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-electricity-ge... [1] https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/united-kingdom https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/united-kingdom
- anakaine 2y agoG'day fellow Aussie. Whilst I'd like to see us get nuclear power up and running, I also do not want to see it happen under Voldemort. I'm in his electorate, and the only reason he's in is because we have a number of conservative hicks and nut jobs.