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Critics of solar (ie pro-nuclear people) like to point out that solar paower is variable and can't be used for base load. The truth seems to be more complicated

by jmyeet 2y ago

Critics of solar (ie pro-nuclear people) like to point out that solar paower is variable and can't be used for base load. The truth seems to be more complicated [1] eg: > Interestingly, as it looks to the future, NextEra seems not to be particularly interested in thermal power plants, the type that includes base load plants. It is planning to close its last coal-burning plant in 2028. And it expects electricity generated by natural gas to decline to 18% overall for all US producers by 2035. A look at a graphic on page 122 shows us why. Another factor here is that solar power generation (ie when the Sun is up) largely aligns with peak power usage [2] so you're actually reducing the base load required because the maximum power usage has decreased with a significant solar power deployment. Lastly, we don't tend to build power plants next to people. People don't want to live next to power plants. The further users are away from a power plant the more power required because you lose power in transmission. Solar (with or without batteries) can be deployed on residential housing so a wide solar deployment has power generation closer to the user (and is thus more efficient) but also reduces the need for heavy transmission lines. That's important because if and when we have wider EV usage, there's going to be an issue in having sufficient power generation and transmission capacity so you really need solar to offset that. [1]: https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/28/we-dont-need-base-load-power/ https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/28/we-dont-need-base-load-... [2]: https://paylesspower.com/blog/what-are-peak-hours-for-electricity/ https://paylesspower.com/blog/what-are-peak-hours-for-electr...

JoshTriplett 2y ago
> Critics of solar (ie pro-nuclear people) Please don't assume that everyone who is pro-nuclear is anti-solar. Let's have nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, tide-based, and anything else that works as a viable power source with no pollution. Let's have all of those technologies compete fairly over what is the most efficient and most capable of handling the load.
- rayiner 2y ago
  To add some numbers to that: peak winter heating load in my house is about double the peak summer cooling load. And I'm in Maryland--not a cold climate at all.
- trescenzi 2y ago
  Totally agree. The solution is “yes and”. It’ always a bit sad to see people with good intensions arguing over whose intentions are more pure. I appreciate the frustration of pro nuclear people, because for so long they were see as even worse than fossil fuels, but we’ve gotta move past that and work together to get the most effective set of things built asap.
- jmyeet 2y ago
  > Please don't assume that everyone who is pro-nuclear is anti-solar It's more that there is a rabid pro-nuclear segment who will try and silence anything less than unfettered praise for nuclear. Anecdotally, I can simply mention the bojective fact that the clean up for Fukushima will likely approach or even exceed $1 trillion [1] and I know what reaction I'll get. The same goes for pointing out the very real problem of neutron energy loss from fusion (let alone the resulting destruction of the containment vessel) to the point where I'm not convinced fusion will ever be commercially viable and you get the same reaction. So I can't speak to you personally but as a whole the nuclear fanboys, even on HN, absolutely do not tolerate even mild factual criticism or objective facts that paint nuclear in anything less than a glowing light (pun intended). [1]:https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Fukushima-Anniversary/Fukushima-cleanup-costs-swell-with-no-end-in-sight https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Fukushima-Anniversary/Fuku...
  - EasyMark 2y ago
    I’ve generally just asked someone to show me an analysis where wind/solar can handle something like a cold snap or time when wind basically doesn’t happen for days on end? Just go without power?There are currently so grid scale batteries that can go days without “good” conditions where your solar/wind are only performing at 20% rather than 60-70% ? If wind/solar is 80% of your mix you’re gonna have a bad time. Do you keep the old fossil fuel plants around “just in case”?who is going to pay for that?
- energy123 2y ago
  You have to customise the mix depending on the local factors. North Africa should not go nuclear. No existing industry, very sunny, low seasonality, etc. Germany probably should have nuclear as part of the mix. Not as sunny, existing skilled industry.
- EasyMark 2y ago
  I’ve been pro nuclear since the 90s but no one listens to me :)
- glimshe 2y ago
  Pro-nuclear people tend to be pro-solar. But pro-solar people are rarely pro-nuclear...
TheRoque 2y ago
Does solar power generation really align with peak power usage... ? For most of Europe and the US, peak usage is during winter, and this is the time where the days are shorter, and the sun is lower in the sky.
- Brybry 2y ago
  Peak demand in the US is in the summer, specifically July/August, due to air conditioning. [1] Most of the cold climate areas in the US use non-electric heating like gas furnaces (and the non-cold climate areas don't really need a lot of heating). [2] [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60602 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60602 [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30672 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30672
- jmyeet 2y ago
  Here's a nice chart for the US [1]. You are correct that because of colder climates European power demand tends to peak more in winter. I can't find a similar chart to this (ideally broken down by country) but I did find this [2] > Even though it may seem counterintuitive due to their climate, Nordic countries are remarkably well-suited for PV installations. Solar irradiation levels during the long summer days, when the sun barely sets, make these regions perfectly viable for solar power generation. In fact, it’s a burgeoning industry that’s increasingly turning heads towards the north. > Solar PV cells operate more optimally at lower temperatures. Cold environments help maintain the cells’ operational temperature, allowing them to work at peak efficiency. The Nordic regions often enjoy strong sunshine, and when this is coupled with the reflective properties of snow, solar irradiance is significantly increased. A good example of this was during the first COVID lockdown when Western Europe saw record irradiance levels. [1]: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42915 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42915 [2]: https://ratedpower.com/blog/nordic-solar-success-story/ https://ratedpower.com/blog/nordic-solar-success-story/
  - magicalhippo 2y ago
    Depends several factors though. My buddy, 59 deg N, has solar panels on his roof. During winter the sun is so low in the sky that a treeline quite away shadows most of the panels. He doesn't run microinverters so often zero output for an entire day. During summer through he's often self-reliant, including charging his EV. If he had a power-wall type battery he'd be fully self-reliant most of the summer.
rayiner 2y ago
> Another factor here is that solar power generation (ie when the Sun is up) largely aligns with peak power usage [2] Right now, you have an asymmetry in electric use between heating and cooling, because electricity is used for cooling (peak during the day), while gas and oil are typically used for heating (peak at night). That's going to change when we move everyone to heat pumps for heating, and to EVs that will charge at home overnight.
EasyMark 2y ago
My question though is what happens when there are -days- of bad weather for solar or wind and most of a state (Texas during the 2021 cold snap where 500+people died). No grid batteries that we currently have can handle that. Do we just let 5000 people die and say “those are the breaks”? The grid was already bad with 80% ish fossil + 20% wind/solar mix. I’ll admit it was because the old fossil fuel plants weren’t properly winterized, but the net effect is the same, when the role is flipped and it 80%/20% green/fossil what happens?

by jmyeet 2y ago

JoshTriplett 2y ago

> Critics of solar (ie pro-nuclear people) Please don't assume that everyone who is pro-nuclear is anti-solar. Let's have nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, tide-based, and anything else that works as a viable power source with no pollution. Let's have all of those technologies compete fairly over what is the most efficient and most capable of handling the load.

rayiner 2y ago
To add some numbers to that: peak winter heating load in my house is about double the peak summer cooling load. And I'm in Maryland--not a cold climate at all.
trescenzi 2y ago
Totally agree. The solution is “yes and”. It’ always a bit sad to see people with good intensions arguing over whose intentions are more pure. I appreciate the frustration of pro nuclear people, because for so long they were see as even worse than fossil fuels, but we’ve gotta move past that and work together to get the most effective set of things built asap.
jmyeet 2y ago
> Please don't assume that everyone who is pro-nuclear is anti-solar It's more that there is a rabid pro-nuclear segment who will try and silence anything less than unfettered praise for nuclear. Anecdotally, I can simply mention the bojective fact that the clean up for Fukushima will likely approach or even exceed $1 trillion [1] and I know what reaction I'll get. The same goes for pointing out the very real problem of neutron energy loss from fusion (let alone the resulting destruction of the containment vessel) to the point where I'm not convinced fusion will ever be commercially viable and you get the same reaction. So I can't speak to you personally but as a whole the nuclear fanboys, even on HN, absolutely do not tolerate even mild factual criticism or objective facts that paint nuclear in anything less than a glowing light (pun intended). [1]:https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Fukushima-Anniversary/Fukushima-cleanup-costs-swell-with-no-end-in-sight https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Fukushima-Anniversary/Fuku...
- EasyMark 2y ago
  I’ve generally just asked someone to show me an analysis where wind/solar can handle something like a cold snap or time when wind basically doesn’t happen for days on end? Just go without power?There are currently so grid scale batteries that can go days without “good” conditions where your solar/wind are only performing at 20% rather than 60-70% ? If wind/solar is 80% of your mix you’re gonna have a bad time. Do you keep the old fossil fuel plants around “just in case”?who is going to pay for that?
energy123 2y ago
You have to customise the mix depending on the local factors. North Africa should not go nuclear. No existing industry, very sunny, low seasonality, etc. Germany probably should have nuclear as part of the mix. Not as sunny, existing skilled industry.
EasyMark 2y ago
I’ve been pro nuclear since the 90s but no one listens to me :)
glimshe 2y ago
Pro-nuclear people tend to be pro-solar. But pro-solar people are rarely pro-nuclear...

TheRoque 2y ago

Does solar power generation really align with peak power usage... ? For most of Europe and the US, peak usage is during winter, and this is the time where the days are shorter, and the sun is lower in the sky.

Brybry 2y ago
Peak demand in the US is in the summer, specifically July/August, due to air conditioning. [1] Most of the cold climate areas in the US use non-electric heating like gas furnaces (and the non-cold climate areas don't really need a lot of heating). [2] [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60602 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60602 [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30672 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30672
jmyeet 2y ago
Here's a nice chart for the US [1]. You are correct that because of colder climates European power demand tends to peak more in winter. I can't find a similar chart to this (ideally broken down by country) but I did find this [2] > Even though it may seem counterintuitive due to their climate, Nordic countries are remarkably well-suited for PV installations. Solar irradiation levels during the long summer days, when the sun barely sets, make these regions perfectly viable for solar power generation. In fact, it’s a burgeoning industry that’s increasingly turning heads towards the north. > Solar PV cells operate more optimally at lower temperatures. Cold environments help maintain the cells’ operational temperature, allowing them to work at peak efficiency. The Nordic regions often enjoy strong sunshine, and when this is coupled with the reflective properties of snow, solar irradiance is significantly increased. A good example of this was during the first COVID lockdown when Western Europe saw record irradiance levels. [1]: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42915 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42915 [2]: https://ratedpower.com/blog/nordic-solar-success-story/ https://ratedpower.com/blog/nordic-solar-success-story/
- magicalhippo 2y ago
  Depends several factors though. My buddy, 59 deg N, has solar panels on his roof. During winter the sun is so low in the sky that a treeline quite away shadows most of the panels. He doesn't run microinverters so often zero output for an entire day. During summer through he's often self-reliant, including charging his EV. If he had a power-wall type battery he'd be fully self-reliant most of the summer.

rayiner 2y ago

> Another factor here is that solar power generation (ie when the Sun is up) largely aligns with peak power usage [2] Right now, you have an asymmetry in electric use between heating and cooling, because electricity is used for cooling (peak during the day), while gas and oil are typically used for heating (peak at night). That's going to change when we move everyone to heat pumps for heating, and to EVs that will charge at home overnight.

EasyMark 2y ago

My question though is what happens when there are -days- of bad weather for solar or wind and most of a state (Texas during the 2021 cold snap where 500+people died). No grid batteries that we currently have can handle that. Do we just let 5000 people die and say “those are the breaks”? The grid was already bad with 80% ish fossil + 20% wind/solar mix. I’ll admit it was because the old fossil fuel plants weren’t properly winterized, but the net effect is the same, when the role is flipped and it 80%/20% green/fossil what happens?