Your number 1 relies on producers not changing their behaviour, which is what negative pricingis designed to accomplish. It also relies on people so poorly taki

Your number 1 relies on producers not changing their behaviour, which is what negative pricingis designed to accomplish. It also relies on people so poorly taking advatange that the arb doesny dissapear. your 2 will probably happen at some point but its been forecast within the minimum likely range for arbitrage opportunities to cause widespread capital allo.ation to take advantage of the arbitrage that it has stunted investment in your 1. in short its questionable that arbitrage will sort this any time soon (although it will likely be accounted for in new projects that were happening anyway. That˙makes it something that will move the needle over decades, not years) sorting this soon needs another order of magnitude or two improvement in total cost of storage, ideally in a cheaper and less environmentally harmful chemistry that can also take advantage of the installed battery production capacity, or rethinking to make environmentally friendly demand generation (ie nuclear) cheaper and faster to deploy to provide the power when the solar can't.