4 ms·

Maybe Tesla's market/customer base has just saturated.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
consumer451 2y ago
As a relatively early investor, I have been watching Tesla subs for a long time. Even though I sold 2 years ago I still pay attention. While certainly not the only factor, public opinion on Musk is a significant factor it appears: https://electrek.co/2023/07/27/disapproval-elon-musk-top-reason-tesla-owners-selling-survey/ https://electrek.co/2023/07/27/disapproval-elon-musk-top-rea... https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Areddit.com+won%27t+buy+a+tesla+because+of+Musk https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Areddit.com+won%27t+bu...
- mike_hearn 2y ago
  > The survey also found that 87% of Model 3 owners are considering a Tesla for their next vehicles. That means it’s a fairly small percentage of people who are actually walking away from Tesla overall, and only about one in five of those people are doing it because of Musk
  - Retric 2y ago
    People considering buying a Tesla isn’t the same as people actually buying a Tesla. 13% of owners found the experience so bad they are completely unwilling to consider the brand. People who dislike the cars or company but want a sub 45k EV with ~300 miles of range still don’t have a lot of options. Thus most current owners would at least consider buying another Tesla.
    - ptero 2y ago
      Why do you think those 13% found the experience very bad? They might have moved to an area where there are no superchargers, they may want to try something different (which people do, even if they like what they have today), they might want a different body type (sport instead of the family), there may be many other reasons.
xkbarkar 2y ago
I´d also wager that some of the competition has finally gotten they sh!t together. Tried the new WV ev Passad and the latest Skoda Enyaq. Both have great battery range and when it comes to comfort are much better than the stiff bumby Tesla. Tesla had momentum and they used it to the max. Now the competition has gotten wizer. I do not subscribe to the interwebs anti-Musk rhetoric, most people do not care if he eats babies for breakfast as long as his cars are affordable, reliable, comfortable and reasonably green. So before the Musk hate starts as is fashion in the forums these days, competition got better, Tesla are no longer ahead. That's what I would bet on.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Tesla had momentum and they used it to the max They had momentum and fumbled it with the Cybertruck. They retain a massive sourcing and production expertise advantage, as well as a built-in marketing advantage in their existing customers (and Superchargers). In the time they fumbled they lost the low-end market to China. They’re currently bleeding the aspirational market to higher-end, more-differentiated brands. I’m not a car guy. It isn’t clear where they go from here. But they both didn’t use their momentum “to the max,” nor are they out of steam.
  - Sakos 2y ago
    When the Cybertruck launched was already too late for them to have launched a "budget" Tesla, and a budget Tesla is what they really needed to cement their lead in the EV industry. Now there are a bunch of decent competitors in Tesla's market segments and China is eating (or will eat) everybody's lunch in cheaper segments (except for the US, I guess, with the 100% import tax). I have no idea what they're doing. It looks like the budget Tesla is dead in the water and they're all in on robotaxis? How is that going to work? What's their actual strategy for the near to long-term future?
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > When the Cybertruck launched was already too late for them to have launched a "budget" Tesla Sure. When the Cybertruck started diverting resources it wasn’t. > they're all in on robotaxis? Current market leader is Mercedes with an SAE Level 3 vehicle [1]. (Tesla markets like it’s Level 5, but it’s technically Level 2, same as my Subaru.) Waymo is Level 4 [2]. They appear to be at their field’s forefront. If Tesla could sell a Level 4 vehicle, even one that only carries that guarantee on certain routes at certain times of the day in certain weather, it would be a game changer. [1] https://fortune.com/2024/04/18/mercedes-self-driving-autonomous-cars-california-nevada-level-3-drive-pilot/ https://fortune.com/2024/04/18/mercedes-self-driving-autonom... [2] https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update 3.5 if you’re picky
pantalaimon 2y ago
Being so strongly associated with Elon Musk and therefore his political opinions really shrank the customer base. EVs aren’t very popular with the average right wingers.
- Rinzler89 2y ago
  Moving the blame on right wingers feels incredibly wrong. Reminds me how certain movie directors blame the right wingers for their movie flopping, when the real reason is their movie just sucks mega balls period. Just own your failures and stop looking for right wing straw men everywhere as scapegoats. Money talks in the free market and consumers vote with their wallets so if you make products that are top quality and great value, they'll buy them regardless of your political orientation.
  - cmgxyz 2y ago
    I’ll bite. Who are we talking about here?
    - Rinzler89 2y ago
      [flagged]
  - dsr_ 2y ago
    [flagged]
cjk2 2y ago
This is the financial model the large investors have been working on. Luxury market saturation followed by commoditisation of EVs. Go look at the Invesco QQQ ETF on Morningstar and they're the only loss in the top 10. Also why you diversify your investments and don't go all in on TSLA. Ride it, dump it.
rsynnott 2y ago
It would be kind of weird if the customer base for a Tesla 3/Y was fundamentally different from the customer base for, say, a VW id.4 or that Hyundai whose name I forget that is everywhere, tho.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

As a relatively early investor, I have been watching Tesla subs for a long time. Even though I sold 2 years ago I still pay attention. While certainly not the only factor, public opinion on Musk is a significant factor it appears: https://electrek.co/2023/07/27/disapproval-elon-musk-top-reason-tesla-owners-selling-survey/ https://electrek.co/2023/07/27/disapproval-elon-musk-top-rea... https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Areddit.com+won%27t+buy+a+tesla+because+of+Musk https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Areddit.com+won%27t+bu...

mike_hearn 2y ago
> The survey also found that 87% of Model 3 owners are considering a Tesla for their next vehicles. That means it’s a fairly small percentage of people who are actually walking away from Tesla overall, and only about one in five of those people are doing it because of Musk
- Retric 2y ago
  People considering buying a Tesla isn’t the same as people actually buying a Tesla. 13% of owners found the experience so bad they are completely unwilling to consider the brand. People who dislike the cars or company but want a sub 45k EV with ~300 miles of range still don’t have a lot of options. Thus most current owners would at least consider buying another Tesla.
  - ptero 2y ago
    Why do you think those 13% found the experience very bad? They might have moved to an area where there are no superchargers, they may want to try something different (which people do, even if they like what they have today), they might want a different body type (sport instead of the family), there may be many other reasons.

xkbarkar 2y ago

I´d also wager that some of the competition has finally gotten they sh!t together. Tried the new WV ev Passad and the latest Skoda Enyaq. Both have great battery range and when it comes to comfort are much better than the stiff bumby Tesla. Tesla had momentum and they used it to the max. Now the competition has gotten wizer. I do not subscribe to the interwebs anti-Musk rhetoric, most people do not care if he eats babies for breakfast as long as his cars are affordable, reliable, comfortable and reasonably green. So before the Musk hate starts as is fashion in the forums these days, competition got better, Tesla are no longer ahead. That's what I would bet on.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Tesla had momentum and they used it to the max They had momentum and fumbled it with the Cybertruck. They retain a massive sourcing and production expertise advantage, as well as a built-in marketing advantage in their existing customers (and Superchargers). In the time they fumbled they lost the low-end market to China. They’re currently bleeding the aspirational market to higher-end, more-differentiated brands. I’m not a car guy. It isn’t clear where they go from here. But they both didn’t use their momentum “to the max,” nor are they out of steam.
- Sakos 2y ago
  When the Cybertruck launched was already too late for them to have launched a "budget" Tesla, and a budget Tesla is what they really needed to cement their lead in the EV industry. Now there are a bunch of decent competitors in Tesla's market segments and China is eating (or will eat) everybody's lunch in cheaper segments (except for the US, I guess, with the 100% import tax). I have no idea what they're doing. It looks like the budget Tesla is dead in the water and they're all in on robotaxis? How is that going to work? What's their actual strategy for the near to long-term future?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > When the Cybertruck launched was already too late for them to have launched a "budget" Tesla Sure. When the Cybertruck started diverting resources it wasn’t. > they're all in on robotaxis? Current market leader is Mercedes with an SAE Level 3 vehicle [1]. (Tesla markets like it’s Level 5, but it’s technically Level 2, same as my Subaru.) Waymo is Level 4 [2]. They appear to be at their field’s forefront. If Tesla could sell a Level 4 vehicle, even one that only carries that guarantee on certain routes at certain times of the day in certain weather, it would be a game changer. [1] https://fortune.com/2024/04/18/mercedes-self-driving-autonomous-cars-california-nevada-level-3-drive-pilot/ https://fortune.com/2024/04/18/mercedes-self-driving-autonom... [2] https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update 3.5 if you’re picky

pantalaimon 2y ago

Being so strongly associated with Elon Musk and therefore his political opinions really shrank the customer base. EVs aren’t very popular with the average right wingers.

Rinzler89 2y ago
Moving the blame on right wingers feels incredibly wrong. Reminds me how certain movie directors blame the right wingers for their movie flopping, when the real reason is their movie just sucks mega balls period. Just own your failures and stop looking for right wing straw men everywhere as scapegoats. Money talks in the free market and consumers vote with their wallets so if you make products that are top quality and great value, they'll buy them regardless of your political orientation.
- cmgxyz 2y ago
  I’ll bite. Who are we talking about here?
  - Rinzler89 2y ago
    [flagged]
- dsr_ 2y ago
  [flagged]

cjk2 2y ago

This is the financial model the large investors have been working on. Luxury market saturation followed by commoditisation of EVs. Go look at the Invesco QQQ ETF on Morningstar and they're the only loss in the top 10. Also why you diversify your investments and don't go all in on TSLA. Ride it, dump it.

rsynnott 2y ago

It would be kind of weird if the customer base for a Tesla 3/Y was fundamentally different from the customer base for, say, a VW id.4 or that Hyundai whose name I forget that is everywhere, tho.