3 ms·

> the world is changing much faster now than it was in 01936 Hardly. In most ways things were advancing much more quickly in 1936. Look at say medicine, cars

by Retric 2y ago

> the world is changing much faster now than it was in 01936 Hardly. In most ways things were advancing much more quickly in 1936. Look at say medicine, cars, aircraft, physics, nuclear power, even computers and communication systems, and if anything things are currently slower right now than back then. In 1905 the fastest aircraft did 30 MPH and had troubles traveling 30 miles in bad weather, by 1965 we could fly ~1,000x as fast and that’s ignoring interplanetary probes etc. 1935 sat in the middle of that transition but fly somewhere today and there’s good odds you’ll be in a 30+ year old airplane with some new paint an arguably upgraded interior. Walk into a Walmart today and ~99% of the stuff sold had direct equivalents 10 years ago. Most of it is minor improvements on stuff available 50 years ago. That really wasn’t the case in 1935.

kragen 2y ago
it is true that if transportation speed is your metric, things are advancing much more slowly; even considering 01876 to 01936 physical movement sped up enormously, and it was widely felt that speed was the defining feature of the age. and progress in aviation, as in many other fields, basically stopped 50 years ago but i'd say that the differences in computers and nuclear power up to 01936 were all zero since neither of them existed. and i'm not sure you're right about physics and medicine either unfortunately i can't walk into a walmart (they pulled out of my country, which is in an economic crisis worse than any it's seen since, coincidentally for this discussion, the great depression) but i have two rebuttals here: 1. walmart sells starlink, alexa (echo), airpods, impossible burgers, apple carplay, cheap solar panels, and ring cameras, none of which existed ten years ago, and i think doesn't sell divx anymore. they sold cassette tapes in 02014 and don't anymore. they decided the live lobster tanks were inhumane and took those out too. a lot of locations also stopped selling cigarettes. and they no longer sell fish. or ar-15 and similar rifles. also 02014 was the last year you could buy polaroid film anywhere (though maybe not in walmart) also, there are lots of products which were hobbyist or luxury niches 10 years ago and are now on sale at walmart. 3-d printers and google chromecast come to mind. oled tvs might be another example. you could argue that ring cameras are really just a webcam, but webcams you bought ten years ago weren't remotely controlled by a surveillance company 2. if you walked into a woolworths in 01936, 99% of the stuff sold there had direct equivalents in 01926. i don't have a woolworths catalog from 01936; the closest thing to hand is https://archive.org/details/1937-sears-christmas-wishbook-catalog https://archive.org/details/1937-sears-christmas-wishbook-ca.... selecting 5 random pages (12, 44, 52, 83, 101, all counted from the beginning of the pdf) and 3 random items from each page we get: - a 13½-inch doll with jointed arms - the 17-inch version of the doll - a 13-inch doll with closing eyes and rayon socks that says 'momma' - a 10¾-inch-wide chalkboard with interchangeable educational chart cards with a whiteboard side for erasable crayons - 10 coloring-book-like picture cards that come with a glue stick and colored sand to color them with - 12 picture cards that come with six colors of sand instead of three - a radio-controlled model train controlled by voice recognition (though i suspect the radio part may have been just as fake as the voice recognition part, because it says 'transformer included' but doesn't say it requires batteries, and also because it would have required several vacuum tubes to actually use radio control, and it cost less than the vacuum tubes) - another 'remote-controlled' model train which is fairly clear that there's no radio - a wind-up train - a wooden men's suitcase covered in top-grain cowhide leather with a tray inside for toiletries such as a toothbrush and a mirror - a similar suitcase for women - another men's suitcase with split cowhide leather on a metal frame - a 1-pound bag of extra fancy fresh mixed nuts (walnuts, pecans, brazil nuts, almonds, and filberts) - a 1-pound bag of filberts - a 5-pound bag of brazil nuts this obviously isn't enough to conclude that 99% of the stuff in the catalog had direct equivalents in 01927, but i think literally every item in this list (generated by python's systemrandom object) did, which i think justifies the claim that probably at least 94% of it did. even electric model trains date from 1897, and hornby was selling toy versions from 01925
- Retric 2y ago
  > differences in computers and nuclear power up to 01936 were all zero since neither of them existed. Computers existed in 1936, they were mostly analog but still surprisingly capable. Unlike today where we’ve basically standardized on only using transistors things where rapidly evolving in serval directions at the same time including the use of vacuum tubes and electromechanical relays etc. Look at the evolution of say 3D graphics card pipelines and sure things are getting faster but we’re well past the peak period of innovation when dramatically different architectures where showing up regularly rather than just more processing power. Nuclear power isn’t limited to electricity, we used to do things like paint watch dials with phosphors that lit up at night. Radioactive quackery had largely died down by 1936, but that in itself was a significant change as was the understanding of worker safety issues. > starlink, alexa (echo), airpods, impossible burgers, apple carplay, cheap solar panels, and ring cameras, none of which existed ten years ago Alexa was released in 2014, and it’s arguable how distinct it is from Siri (2011) etc. You’re basically defining new in terms of brands on that list. Satellite internet, bluetooth earpiece, vegan burgers, cheap solar panels, internet security cameras were all available 10 years ago. Solar panels have gotten cheaper per watt, but in 2014 you could get a 10kW system for ~30k vs 26k today. Adjusting for inflation it’s a bigger price drop but breakeven times aren’t that different.

by Retric 2y ago

kragen 2y ago

it is true that if transportation speed is your metric, things are advancing much more slowly; even considering 01876 to 01936 physical movement sped up enormously, and it was widely felt that speed was the defining feature of the age. and progress in aviation, as in many other fields, basically stopped 50 years ago but i'd say that the differences in computers and nuclear power up to 01936 were all zero since neither of them existed. and i'm not sure you're right about physics and medicine either unfortunately i can't walk into a walmart (they pulled out of my country, which is in an economic crisis worse than any it's seen since, coincidentally for this discussion, the great depression) but i have two rebuttals here: 1. walmart sells starlink, alexa (echo), airpods, impossible burgers, apple carplay, cheap solar panels, and ring cameras, none of which existed ten years ago, and i think doesn't sell divx anymore. they sold cassette tapes in 02014 and don't anymore. they decided the live lobster tanks were inhumane and took those out too. a lot of locations also stopped selling cigarettes. and they no longer sell fish. or ar-15 and similar rifles. also 02014 was the last year you could buy polaroid film anywhere (though maybe not in walmart) also, there are lots of products which were hobbyist or luxury niches 10 years ago and are now on sale at walmart. 3-d printers and google chromecast come to mind. oled tvs might be another example. you could argue that ring cameras are really just a webcam, but webcams you bought ten years ago weren't remotely controlled by a surveillance company 2. if you walked into a woolworths in 01936, 99% of the stuff sold there had direct equivalents in 01926. i don't have a woolworths catalog from 01936; the closest thing to hand is https://archive.org/details/1937-sears-christmas-wishbook-catalog https://archive.org/details/1937-sears-christmas-wishbook-ca.... selecting 5 random pages (12, 44, 52, 83, 101, all counted from the beginning of the pdf) and 3 random items from each page we get: - a 13½-inch doll with jointed arms - the 17-inch version of the doll - a 13-inch doll with closing eyes and rayon socks that says 'momma' - a 10¾-inch-wide chalkboard with interchangeable educational chart cards with a whiteboard side for erasable crayons - 10 coloring-book-like picture cards that come with a glue stick and colored sand to color them with - 12 picture cards that come with six colors of sand instead of three - a radio-controlled model train controlled by voice recognition (though i suspect the radio part may have been just as fake as the voice recognition part, because it says 'transformer included' but doesn't say it requires batteries, and also because it would have required several vacuum tubes to actually use radio control, and it cost less than the vacuum tubes) - another 'remote-controlled' model train which is fairly clear that there's no radio - a wind-up train - a wooden men's suitcase covered in top-grain cowhide leather with a tray inside for toiletries such as a toothbrush and a mirror - a similar suitcase for women - another men's suitcase with split cowhide leather on a metal frame - a 1-pound bag of extra fancy fresh mixed nuts (walnuts, pecans, brazil nuts, almonds, and filberts) - a 1-pound bag of filberts - a 5-pound bag of brazil nuts this obviously isn't enough to conclude that 99% of the stuff in the catalog had direct equivalents in 01927, but i think literally every item in this list (generated by python's systemrandom object) did, which i think justifies the claim that probably at least 94% of it did. even electric model trains date from 1897, and hornby was selling toy versions from 01925

Retric 2y ago
> differences in computers and nuclear power up to 01936 were all zero since neither of them existed. Computers existed in 1936, they were mostly analog but still surprisingly capable. Unlike today where we’ve basically standardized on only using transistors things where rapidly evolving in serval directions at the same time including the use of vacuum tubes and electromechanical relays etc. Look at the evolution of say 3D graphics card pipelines and sure things are getting faster but we’re well past the peak period of innovation when dramatically different architectures where showing up regularly rather than just more processing power. Nuclear power isn’t limited to electricity, we used to do things like paint watch dials with phosphors that lit up at night. Radioactive quackery had largely died down by 1936, but that in itself was a significant change as was the understanding of worker safety issues. > starlink, alexa (echo), airpods, impossible burgers, apple carplay, cheap solar panels, and ring cameras, none of which existed ten years ago Alexa was released in 2014, and it’s arguable how distinct it is from Siri (2011) etc. You’re basically defining new in terms of brands on that list. Satellite internet, bluetooth earpiece, vegan burgers, cheap solar panels, internet security cameras were all available 10 years ago. Solar panels have gotten cheaper per watt, but in 2014 you could get a 10kW system for ~30k vs 26k today. Adjusting for inflation it’s a bigger price drop but breakeven times aren’t that different.