4 ms·

If you think LLMs are overhyped, the rational move is to start an LLM company, since it's practically the only way to obtain shares to sell.

• kimixa 2y ago
  If you think LLMs are overhyped, you likely expect a bubble burst when the "Emperor has no clothes!" moment happens - so it's rational to avoid the risk of being stuck holding the bag when that happens.
  • c-linkage 2y ago
    But with zirp you just borrow someone else's money to start the business and reap all the profits while the lenders suffer the losses! :-)
    • skybrian 2y ago
      This could happen at any interest rate, or without borrowing at all, by selling stock instead. We might be seeing a bubble now?
• lokar 2y ago
  Pure money stuff. He has said if you think something is over valued, short it. If you think the VC startup industry is overvalued the best way to do that is to start (and sell to VC) a startup. Enter adam neumann.
  • skybrian 2y ago
    No, shorting is different; it's borrowing something you might not be able to pay back. WeWork was signing leases - borrowing real estate. They went bankrupt from not being able to pay for it. This isn't the same as selling shares to VC's. Equity isn't debt.
    • lokar 2y ago
      Yes, his point in the newsletter is that if you want to short something you can’t borrow, then you should (cynically) make more of it.
      • skybrian 2y ago
        Okay, I remember that. But I think this could more simply be seen as becoming a supplier, responding to temporary demand. This could be done well or fraudulently.
        • lokar 2y ago
          Somewhere between honest supplier and fraud is the land of wework…